We're officially into the second half of the regular season, so stats are fairly well stabilized, making individual and team stats more reliable. For those looking to research picks of their own, these resources are particularly useful:
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position stats- https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
For those new to Underdog and looking to get in on the action, use the promo code ROTONFL at the following link for a bonus on your first deposit.
Higher
Jaylen Waddle vs. BUF – higher than 65.5 receiving yards
Dalton Kincaid at MIA – higher than 38.5 receiving yards
It's easy to overlook the Miami offense given the current state of the team, but Waddle has stepped into the WR1 role for the Dolphins very successfully since Tyreek Hill went down. In five full games since, Waddle has topped 80 yards four times, and 90 or more yards on three occasions.
The Bills began the season as a tough matchup, primarily due to their ability to limit the volume of the opposition based on their offense. However, in the last several weeks, the Buffalo secondary has been exposed, allowing four wide receivers to reach 70 receiving yards in the last three games. The final factor in Waddle's favor is that the game is in Miami, where both he and the Dolphins have performed better overall this season.
Kincaid is a good option on the opposite side of this game. He's a part-time player due to his shortcomings as a blocker, but he's targeted heavily when on the field. Kincaid leads the Bills with a 25.8 percent target per route run rate, and he has an extremely efficient 3.21 yards per route run. The Dolphins have regularly surrendered 60 or more yards to opposing tight ends, so Kincaid should be in for a nice showing.
Kyle Pitts at IND – higher than 43.5 receiving yards
Speaking of good matchups for tight ends, Pitts has among the best this week against the Colts in Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.
Indianapolis has been shredded by opposing TEs this season, allowing Chig Okonkwo to surpass 50 yards on both occasions they've faced off, while also allowing 72 yards to Trey McBride and 164 to Oronde Gadsden. Pitts isn't necessarily comparable to each of those players, but he's been plenty involved in the Atlanta offense.
Quentin Johnston vs. PIT – higher than 36.5 receiving yards
The Chargers are a good offense, but it has become difficult to project skill-position players (aside from Justin Herbert) in any given game. That makes them a team I'd typically scroll past, but the matchup against Pittsburgh makes Johnston and others worthy of consideration. The Steelers are turning into a clear pass-funnel defense, as Pittsburgh has faced the third-most targets to opposing wide receivers this season. On a per-game basis, it is comfortably the most targeted secondary in the league. That matchup will hopefully create enough volume to spread among the Chargers' top pass catchers in a way that all will post solid games – something we saw last week with the Colts' offense in the same matchup.
Jaxson Dart at CHI – higher than 19.85 fantasy points
It hasn't led to success for the Giants, but Dart has delivered for fantasy managers in his rookie season. As a very baseline level of analysis, he's topped this projected in half of his six games, all of which have come in his last four starts. It's important to note how those results have come about, as Dart has shown he has shown a willingness to use his legs while also showing quick development as a passer.
The matchup against the Bears is another factor in Dart's favor. Chicago has allowed five of the eight quarterbacks it has faced to top this projection, with Tyler Huntley being the only player to not reach this mark in the team's last four games.
Quinshon Judkins at NYJ – higher than 83.5 rushing yards
There may not be two teams with worse morale than the Jets and Browns. We don't know what to expect from the Jets given their lack of a name starting quarterback, but Cleveland is easier to project. Judkins should be the driving force behind the offense while facing a defense that traded away Quinnen Williams and also benched key veteran Quincy Williams. Volume and the matchup are both on his side.
Lower
D'Andre Swift vs. NYG – lower than 55.5 rushing yards
Swift is questionable to suit up after missing practice Friday, so this projection could disappear at some point over the weekend. Assuming he plays, Swift's role is uncertain after Kyle Monangai had a great Week 9 performance. Coach Ben Johnson suggested the Bears will take a hot hand approach in the backfield, which is not reassuring news that Swift will retake his role as the clear lead back. This is a projection that Swift could blow past, but a lot of the peripheral factors suggest this will be a down game for Swift.
Davante Adams at SF- lower than 60.5 receiving yards
Adams has delivered for fantasy purposes, but that's been based on touchdowns rather than yardage. He's been held at or below 60 yards in all but two games this season, and the offense should run through Puka Nacua in Week 10. The 49ers' secondary has been inconsistent this season, but the unit is currently healthy.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. DET – lower than 43.5 rushing yards
Croskey-Merritt is a repeat selection from Week 9, but the projection doesn't seem to be taking into account his effectiveness and potential loss of opportunity. Even with double-digit carries in two of his last three games, Croskey-Merritt has been held below 40 rushing yards on all three occasions. Grant Paulsen, a radio host in D.C., also pointed out that Chris Rodriguez was named as a team captain for the week, potentially hinting at a larger workload.
