We're nearly one quarter of the way through the regular season, meaning some metrics that are most helpful to make these picks are starting to stabilize. Some of the most useful include offensive pace and pass rate over expectation, player stats and defense vs. position stats. These will be referenced regularly throughout the article and are also good resources to make picks of your own.
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Higher
Jerry Jeudy 
vs. MIN - higher than 44.5 receiving yards
The Browns are turning to QB Dillon Gabriel at an interesting time, heading overseas and into one of the tougher matchups in the league against the Minnesota Vikings. Jeudy's projection is low enough that volume can overcome any inefficiency, and Gabriel made clear in his opening press conference that he will be peppering Jeudy with targets in his opening remarks as starter.
The production may not be pretty, but Jeudy should be a significant part of whatever offense Cleveland can muster.
Garrett Wilson 
vs. DAL - higher than 67.5 receiving yards
Very little about this projection adds up. Wilson has topped 80 receiving yards in three of four games this season, and he has dominated opportunity. Among receivers with at least 85 routes run, Wilson ranks fourth in targets per route run, fifth in yards per route run, fifth in air yards share and second in target share. Put another way, volume and efficiency is not a concern.
The matchup should also be beneficial to Wilson's outlook. The Cowboys have allowed 297.5 passing yards per game this season, last in the league by over 31 yards. Of those 297.5 yards, 206.8 have been accounted for by wide receivers.
Xavier Worthy 
at JAX - higher than 3.5 rushing yards
The Chiefs' running backs have struggled early this season, to put things nicely. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have combined to record negative-21 rushing yards over expectation. Worthy returned in Week 4 to play just over half of the team's offensive snaps, yet he still saw two carries on jet sweeps. Kansas City is going to continue to get the ball into his hands, and until/if they fix their running back situation, Worthy can be projected for a couple of carries per game.
Stefon Diggs 
at BUF– higher than 46.5 receiving yards
We finally saw Diggs featured in the New England offense, as he ran a route on 84 percent of Drake Maye's dropbacks after being stuck at right around 60 percent for the rest of the season. He responded by posting 101 yards on six receptions.
Buffalo is a tough matchup, and has also been an extreme run funnel, so Diggs doesn't line up for a big game based on matchup. That would be a bigger concern if his projection was higher, but his involvement in the offense should be significant enough to lead to a decent output. This is also a case where narrative has to be considered. Diggs is returning to Buffalo, and he'll want to put on a show in front of his old team.
Darren Waller 
at CAR - higher than 26.5 receiving yards
A huge portion of the Miami offense has been vacated after Tyreek Hill's season-ending injury, which will open up opportunities for other pass catchers on the roster. There wasn't a clear picture of how targets/routes will be allocated, as the Dolphins only attempted 10 passes in the second half due to positive game script, but both Waller and Malik Washington figure to benefit. This projection doesn't account for his expected increased role.
Lower
Derrick Henry 
vs. HOU – lower than 77.5 rushing yards
Henry has been held under 50 yards in three of four games this season. While that's not necessarily predictive of what we'll see in Week 5 and beyond, but there are several underlying concerns. Henry has earned more than 12 carries only once this season, and the Ravens have been shockingly pass-heavy. Even in neutral game script, they have a 2.2 percent pass-rate over expectation, seventh-highest in the league.
That could change in Week 5 with Cooper Rush very likely to be under center, but the Texans should stack the box and force Rush to beat them. Henry has remained an efficient rusher – he's averaged 1.27 yards per attempt over expectation – so there is some danger that he can carry the offense and go higher than this projection, but the overall state of the offense in Baltimore is not ideal.
Chase Brown 
vs. DET – lower than 53.5 rushing yards
The story is the opposite of that of Henry, as he's been disastrously inefficient. He has logged -0.93 rush yards per attempt over expectation (fifth-worst in the league), and his opportunity has fallen since the efficiency of the Bengals' offense has cratered. That leaves very little positive on his side, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Samaje Perine or Tahj Brooks start to cut into Brown's workload as coach Zac Taylor and company look to get anything going with Jake Browning under center.
The matchup also doesn't help. The Lions have allowed only 94.0 rushing yards per game, seventh-lowest in the league.
Ashton Jeanty 
vs. IND – lower than 83.5 rushing + receiving yards
Maybe Week 5 fixed everything for the Raiders and Jeanty, but the numbers suggest that the Bears had more to do with that than Jeanty. Chicago has allowed the most rushing yards per game in the league, while the Colts have allowed the eighth-lowest in the league (96.0). Jeanty has also been uninvolved as a receiver, and he had only six air yards in Week 4 despite finally earning something of a role as a pass catcher.
