Let's take a look at Week 10.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Browns | 58.40% | 625 | 86.21% | 8.06 |
| RAMS | Texans | 22.90% | 600 | 85.71% | 3.27 |
| PANTHERS | Dolphins | 6.50% | 385 | 79.38% | 1.34 |
| Steelers | COLTS | 5.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 0.99 |
| Patriots | BRONCOS | 1.70% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.40 |
| BEARS | Packers | 0.90% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.28 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 0.90% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.27 |
| Jets | BUCCANEERS | 0.60% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.26 |
| JAGUARS | Chargers | 0.60% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.20 |
| TITANS | Bengals | 0.60% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.19 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are a lot of good choices this week, though I'd cross off the Lions with more than 58-percent ownership. The Rams, Panthers and Steelers are all fairly solid, at least per the Vegas numbers and the polling data.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should destroy Tom Savage and the Texans at home, but Houston's defense
Let's take a look at Week 10.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Browns | 58.40% | 625 | 86.21% | 8.06 |
| RAMS | Texans | 22.90% | 600 | 85.71% | 3.27 |
| PANTHERS | Dolphins | 6.50% | 385 | 79.38% | 1.34 |
| Steelers | COLTS | 5.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 0.99 |
| Patriots | BRONCOS | 1.70% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.40 |
| BEARS | Packers | 0.90% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.28 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 0.90% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.27 |
| Jets | BUCCANEERS | 0.60% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.26 |
| JAGUARS | Chargers | 0.60% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.20 |
| TITANS | Bengals | 0.60% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.19 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are a lot of good choices this week, though I'd cross off the Lions with more than 58-percent ownership. The Rams, Panthers and Steelers are all fairly solid, at least per the Vegas numbers and the polling data.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should destroy Tom Savage and the Texans at home, but Houston's defense has been good against the run, and I'd expect Houston to try and slug this one out on the ground. Still Sean McVay is too smart not to attack the weak secondary down the field and force Savage to beat them. I give the Rams an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Typically, I've stayed away from the Steelers on the road, but they've become a run-first and defense team, mitigating the impact of Ben Roethlisberger's stark home/road splits. The Colts are scrappy, but their defense isn't good, and the Steelers defense should largely shut down their offense. I give the Steelers an 81 percent chance of winning this game.
3. Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton has been erratic, but he's typically played well against weak defenses, and the Panthers defense is too stout for a weak Dolphins offense. I give the Panthers a 79 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
I expect the Patriots offense to struggle against a stout Broncos defense in Denver, but starting Brock Osweiler is like climbing Mount Everest with a 100-pound weight on your back. I give the Patriots a 73 percent chance to win this game.
5. Detroit Lions
The Lions should handle the Browns at home, but Detroit is coming off a short week and big divisional win at Lambeau Field, and more than 58 percent of your pool is likely to be on them. I'd fade them if I had one of the above options remaining for the huge equity boost should the Lions lose. I give the Lions an 84 percent chance to win this game.
6. Chicago Bears
The Bears have been stout on defense and have run the ball well. That puts them ahead of the Packers on two fronts, and neither has a passing game of which to speak. Plus the Packers are coming off a short week and traveling to Chicago. I give the Bears a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Seattle Seahawks - They're banged up on defense and going on the road against a division rival on a short week.
Tennessee Titans - They're not great on either side of the ball, and while the Bengals have played poorly, they should stay in this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars The Jaguars are great defensively, but the Chargers spread the ball around, neutralizing the Jaguars' great corners to an extent, and the Chargers defense should give Blake Bortles trouble.
New York Jets - I would never consider the Jets on the road against anyone.
