This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 14:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | RAIDERS | 31.50% | 675 | 87.10 | 4.06 |
| Broncos | 49ERS | 24.00% | 235 | 70.15 | 7.16 |
| TEXANS | Colts | 7.40% | 200 | 66.67 | 2.47 |
| CHARGERS | Bengals | 6.40% | 1150 | 92.00 | 0.51 |
| Saints | BUCCANEERS | 6.30% | 360 | 78.26 | 1.37 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 6.10% | 360 | 78.26 | 1.33 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 5.10% | 195 | 66.10 | 1.73 |
| Giants | REDSKINS | 2.70% | 115 | 53.49 | 1.26 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 2.40% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.84 |
| CHIEFS | Ravens | 2.10% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.54 |
| Bills | Jets | 1.90% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.72 |
| SEAHAWKS | Vikings | 0.90% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.33 |
| Panthers | BROWNS | 0.80% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.38 |
| Lions | CARDINALS | 0.70% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.31 |
| PACKERS | Falcons | 0.60% | 235 | 70.15 | 0.18 |
| Rams | BEARS | 0.40% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were elite on both sides of the ball, and that was before they got Joey Bosa back. The Bengals have been bad on defense all year, and their offense was cratering before they lost Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. I give
Let's take a look at Week 14:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | RAIDERS | 31.50% | 675 | 87.10 | 4.06 |
| Broncos | 49ERS | 24.00% | 235 | 70.15 | 7.16 |
| TEXANS | Colts | 7.40% | 200 | 66.67 | 2.47 |
| CHARGERS | Bengals | 6.40% | 1150 | 92.00 | 0.51 |
| Saints | BUCCANEERS | 6.30% | 360 | 78.26 | 1.37 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 6.10% | 360 | 78.26 | 1.33 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 5.10% | 195 | 66.10 | 1.73 |
| Giants | REDSKINS | 2.70% | 115 | 53.49 | 1.26 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 2.40% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.84 |
| CHIEFS | Ravens | 2.10% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.54 |
| Bills | Jets | 1.90% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.72 |
| SEAHAWKS | Vikings | 0.90% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.33 |
| Panthers | BROWNS | 0.80% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.38 |
| Lions | CARDINALS | 0.70% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.31 |
| PACKERS | Falcons | 0.60% | 235 | 70.15 | 0.18 |
| Rams | BEARS | 0.40% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were elite on both sides of the ball, and that was before they got Joey Bosa back. The Bengals have been bad on defense all year, and their offense was cratering before they lost Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. I give the Chargers a 95 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have lost two in a row, and they're on the road where they typically play worse. But the Raiders shouldn't offer much resistance on either side of the ball. I give the Steelers an 85 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have had 10 days since their loss in Dallas, and given the Bucs were the other team to beat them, there's little chance of a letdown. I give the Saints a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
The Patriots often struggle in Miami, and the Dolphins know them well, so I expect this to be relatively close. I give the Patriots a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are likely to miss Kareem Hunt, especially as the weather turns in December and January. This week should be a good test against a stout Ravens defense. I give the Chiefs a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have a negative point differential, and the Falcons offense gives them a puncher's chance. But it's hard not to see the Mike McCarthy firing as a major positive for the Packers who face a dome team at home in December. I give the Packers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
7. Denver Broncos
Losing Emmanuel Sanders doesn't help, nor does going on the road for the second straight week. But the Broncos defense is among the best, and Phillip Lindsay and Case Keenum simply need to hold onto the football. I give the Broncos a 68 percent chance to win this game.
8. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have gotten better as the season has gone along, and they blew out the Jets in New York a few weeks ago. That said, Josh Allen is volatile in both directions, and that makes this game a risk. I give the Bills a 64 percent chance to win this game.
9. Houston Texans
The Texans are on a roll, but the Colts are a good team, last week's no-show on offense notwithstanding, and Houston has played mostly weak opponents. I give the Texans a 63 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissons:
Tennessee Titans - The Jaguars defense has showed up the last two weeks, and without Blake Bortles turning it over, whoever plays them is probably in for a war.
New York Giants - The Giants get to face the Mark Sanchez Redskins, but the game is in Washington, they lost Landon Collins for the year, and Eli Manning is still their quarterback.
Dallas Cowboys - The Eagles aren't last year's team, but they're dangerous enough especially given the Cowboys slug-it-out style.
Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks are good again, and they're especially tough at home, but the Vikings defense is stout against the run and matches up well against them.
Carolina Panthers - They're in free fall, and while the Browns are merely average, so are the Panthers.
Detroit Lions - They're among the worst teams in the league, and they're playing on the road.
Los Angeles Rams - If Chase Daniels starts, move them to No. 8. But if it's MItch Trubisky, the Bears are almost even money to handle the Rams at home.
