Washington Commanders vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 8
The Washington Commanders (3-4) travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs (4-3) in an inter- conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Commanders are coming off a NFC East road loss to the Cowboys 44-22, while the Chiefs had a huge 31-0 home win against the Raiders.
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Washington Commanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
- Commanders +11.5 (DraftKings -123) / Chiefs -10.5 (ESPN Bet -105)
- Commanders ML (BetRivers +540) / Chiefs ML (DraftKings -675)
- Total OVER 48.0 (Bet365 -110) / UNDER 48.5 (ESPN Bet -110)
- Commanders total points: Over/Under 18.5 (DraftKings -112)
- Chiefs total points: Over/Under 30.5 (DraftKings -108)
- First-half spread: Commanders +7.0 (Bet365 -110) / Chiefs -6.5 (BetMGM -120)
- First-half total: Over 24.0 (BetMGM -115) / Under 24.5 (BetRivers -115)
- First-half team total: Commanders Over/Under 9.5 (BetRivers -104/-114) Chiefs Over/Under 16.5 (BetRivers -104/-120)
The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point home favorites, and then that expanded to -5.5 on October 14th. The line them moved all the way to -9.5 on October 20th after the Jayden Daniels hamstring injury. It kept moving all the way up to -12.5 at peak before coming back down to -11.5. This still feels like a pretty big overreaction move based on the Daniels injury.
The total opened 48.5 and jumped to 50.5 on October 14th with a peak of 52.5 on October 15th. But then the Daniels news hit and it started to drop with a low of 46.5 before it came back to 48.0
The majority of the bets (68%) have come in on the Chiefs, and the handle is at (70%). This shows that there is no "sharp" action either way..
The total is completely split on both bets and handle at 50/50.
The moneyline is on the Chiefs at 96% of the bets and 94% of the money
Key Injuries
Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels (O), DT Daron Payne (Q), RB Austin Ekeler (O)
Chiefs - OT Josh Simmons (O), G Trey Smith (D)
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Commanders vs. Chiefs Betting Picks
The impact of Jayden Daniels is significant, but Marcus Mariota is a veteran quarterback that is serviceable. Injuries to the wide receiver position have decimated the Commanders offense but both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel will return this week. Motivation is a key when betting football and there is not much motivation on either side in this game which I think can lead to a backdoor cover in a low scoring game.
The Chiefs have the Bills on deck next week and I can see them getting out to a big lead in the first half and then running the ball in the second half.
BETTING TRENDS
- Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
- Washington is 0-8 ATS and SU in its last 8 games against Kansas City.
- Kansas City is 4-1 ATS and SU in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games against Washington.
- The Chiefs are 27-3 as double digit home favorites in their last 30 games and 21-9 to the UNDER (7-2 last 9)
The Commanders' defense is giving up an NFL-worst 7.8 yards per pass attempt and allowing 364 yards per game which is 27th in the league. They have allowed eight pass plays of at least 40 yards which is the most in the NFL. Washington has fallen into a double-digit first-half deficit in five out of its first seven games.
The Chiefs offense has been on fire since getting Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice back.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Best Bets
- Chiefs -6.5 1H for 0.5 unit (Caesars -120)
- Chiefs -2.5 1Q for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Commanders/Chiefs UNDER 48.5 for 1 unit (ESPN Bet -115)
Commanders vs. Chiefs Predictions
This game could be the tale of two halves in that the Chiefs get out to a big lead and then pump the brakes and grind it out in the second half which could lead to the backdoor cover. +11.5 is a tough number because its a dead zone, but the Chiefs should be able to control the majority of this game on Monday night.
