This article is part of our Survivor series.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | BILLS | 27.40% | 425 | 80.95 | 5.22 |
| Chiefs | BROWNS | 21.90% | 390 | 79.59 | 4.47 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 20.50% | 275 | 73.33 | 5.47 |
| COWBOYS | Titans | 19.30% | 250 | 71.43 | 5.51 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 4.50% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.41 |
| 49ERS | Raiders | 1.30% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.51 |
| PATRIOTS | Packers | 1.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.38 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 1.20% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.48 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
They're lower-owned than the Bears, and I trust them more on the road, even though their opponent, the Browns, isn't quite the doormat the Bears' opponent is. I give the Chiefs a 77 percent chance to win this game.
2. Chicago Bears
They're the most owned team, but at only 27 percent (in pools that started Week 1 it's probably higher), the pot odds aren't that massive. The Bills are arguably the league's worst team, especially when Nathan Peterman starts, but going on the road in Buffalo is never a picnic, and the Bills defense is actually good. I give the Bears a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
If the Bears in Buffalo make you nervous, the Vikings are a viable pivot at home against an average Lions team that just
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | BILLS | 27.40% | 425 | 80.95 | 5.22 |
| Chiefs | BROWNS | 21.90% | 390 | 79.59 | 4.47 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 20.50% | 275 | 73.33 | 5.47 |
| COWBOYS | Titans | 19.30% | 250 | 71.43 | 5.51 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 4.50% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.41 |
| 49ERS | Raiders | 1.30% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.51 |
| PATRIOTS | Packers | 1.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.38 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 1.20% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.48 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
They're lower-owned than the Bears, and I trust them more on the road, even though their opponent, the Browns, isn't quite the doormat the Bears' opponent is. I give the Chiefs a 77 percent chance to win this game.
2. Chicago Bears
They're the most owned team, but at only 27 percent (in pools that started Week 1 it's probably higher), the pot odds aren't that massive. The Bills are arguably the league's worst team, especially when Nathan Peterman starts, but going on the road in Buffalo is never a picnic, and the Bills defense is actually good. I give the Bears a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
If the Bears in Buffalo make you nervous, the Vikings are a viable pivot at home against an average Lions team that just got crushed by the Seahawks in their own building. I give the Vikings a 71 percent chance to win this game.
4. Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton's been playing out of his mind of late, and the offense suddenly is loaded with weapons. But this is a letdown spot, and Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Tampa skill players give them a puncher's chance against anyone. I give the Panthers a 70 percent chance to win this game.
5. Dallas Cowboys
I don't like this matchup between two slow-it-down smash-mouth teams where it could be a low-scoring field-goal exchange decided by one big play. I give the Cowboys a 69 percent chance to win this game.
6. New England Patriots
You can usually trust them at home, but Aaron Rodgers is so dangerous in a one-score game, and the Packers seem to have figured out something defensively last week. I give the Patriots a 66 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
San Francisco 49ers - Don't be insane.
Miami Dolphins - See, 49ers, San Francisco. Below-average three-point-favorites are never worth using except in the most dire of circumstances. This week does not qualify.
