This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Another off week at 7-9, but some of it was avoidable. The Giants and Bills were the wrong plays - the Bills simply weren't getting enough points, and the Giants were the obviously square side.
I went 2-3 on best bets, and while I'd maintain the Texans were the right side, the Redskins assuredly were not. Coin flips were 3-3, as they should be.
This week, I went very dog heavy, but I never strive for balance for its own sake. While it's unlikely dogs will go 16-0, it's just as unlikely I'll go 16-0 regardless of the way I split up the picks. Moreover, dogs could easy go 11-5 or 10-6 any given week, and if I get the pick 'em and the three favorites right, I can certainly live with that.
It's worth noting favorites went 14-2 SU last week, and it would have been 15-1 but for Antonio Brown stepping out of bounds. They also went 10-6 ATS, so it's a good time to fade them.
My best bets are the Dolphins, Bills, Titans and Rams. Coin flips are the Seahawks-Giants, Eagles-Vikings, Chiefs-Raiders and Jets-Panthers.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chargers +10.5 at Broncos
I can't see any value in backing Denver after they dispatched the Titans so easily last week. The Chargers at least have a puncher's chance. Take San Diego.
Broncos 33 - 27
EARLY GAMES
Redskins +7 at Falcons
I don't care one bit about the RGIII-Shanahan drama - I just want to get this game right.
Another off week at 7-9, but some of it was avoidable. The Giants and Bills were the wrong plays - the Bills simply weren't getting enough points, and the Giants were the obviously square side.
I went 2-3 on best bets, and while I'd maintain the Texans were the right side, the Redskins assuredly were not. Coin flips were 3-3, as they should be.
This week, I went very dog heavy, but I never strive for balance for its own sake. While it's unlikely dogs will go 16-0, it's just as unlikely I'll go 16-0 regardless of the way I split up the picks. Moreover, dogs could easy go 11-5 or 10-6 any given week, and if I get the pick 'em and the three favorites right, I can certainly live with that.
It's worth noting favorites went 14-2 SU last week, and it would have been 15-1 but for Antonio Brown stepping out of bounds. They also went 10-6 ATS, so it's a good time to fade them.
My best bets are the Dolphins, Bills, Titans and Rams. Coin flips are the Seahawks-Giants, Eagles-Vikings, Chiefs-Raiders and Jets-Panthers.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chargers +10.5 at Broncos
I can't see any value in backing Denver after they dispatched the Titans so easily last week. The Chargers at least have a puncher's chance. Take San Diego.
Broncos 33 - 27
EARLY GAMES
Redskins +7 at Falcons
I don't care one bit about the RGIII-Shanahan drama - I just want to get this game right. Seven seems like a lot against the Falcons if Kirk Cousins is remotely competent. Back Washington.
Falcons 27 - 24
49ers -5.5 at Buccaneers
The Niners have destroyed doormats all year, but the Bucs are more like a league-average team with a decent defense. Back Tampa.
49ers 20 - 19
Seahawks -7 at Giants
I suppose the Giants have to be the value here after their awful effort in San Diego, given the Seahawks are viewed as one of the two best teams in the NFL. Hold your nose and take New York.
Seahawks 23 - 17
Eagles -5 at Vikings
I'm starting to buy into the Eagles a little bit, and the Vikings have to be docked a couple points if Adrian Peterson's out. Minnesota played well enough to win in Baltimore last week, but I think a good offensive team is more of a problem for them. Back the Eagles.
Eagles 27 - 20
Patriots -2.5 at Dolphins
I'd like this a lot better at three, but the Patriots can't stop anyone right now, and the Dolphins are moving the ball and can get to the quarterback. Back Miami.
Dolphins 24 - 23
Bills -2 at Jaguars
The Jaguars keep winning, so I'll keep fading them until they stop (hopefully, that happens before the end of the year). The Bills should make some big plays on both sides of the ball this week. Back Buffalo.
Bills 24 - 16
Texans +6 at Colts
After the awful Thursday night game, I promised to fade the Jaguars and back the Texans. I do like that the Colts opened up the passing game in Cincinnati with some different players, but they'll probably try to run it up the middle again as home favorites. Back Houston.
Colts 23 - 20
Bears pick 'em at Browns
The Bears offense looks so crisp right now, it's hard not to pick them. But they're on the road, and the Browns defense is considerably better than that of the Cowboys. Moreover, the Bears can't stop anyone, and Josh Gordon might not be stoppable anyway. Back the Browns.
Browns 27 - 23
Chiefs -4.5 at Raiders
The Raiders have to be the sharp side after the Chiefs rolled in Washington. I don't like this game, but I'll hold my nose and take Oakland.
Chiefs 19 - 16
LATE GAMES
Jets +11 at Panthers
I was going to take the Jets in a kind of low-scoring slug-fest, but I changed my mind. I don't necessarily buy into their home/road splits, but the pick felt forced as if I were being contrarian for the sake of it. Back Carolina.
Panthers 27 - 9
Packers +7 at Cowboys
The Packers seemed to find some offense last week, albeit at home against a horrendous Atlanta defense, but it's not like they'll find that much more resistance in Dallas. Moreover, you have to assume Jason Garrett will cost the Cowboys an extra three points due to poor decision making, something that might not be priced into the line. And on the off chance Aaron Rodgers plays, seven will look fantastic. Back Green Bay.
Cowboys 27 - 23
Cardinals -3 at Titans
The Cardinals are much better at home, and Tennessee's not a doormat. Take the Titans and the points.
Titans 20 - 19
Saints -5.5 at Rams
Like the Cardinals, the Saints don't travel particularly well, and they're laying points on the road against a team that's not really a doormat. Back St. Louis.
Saints 26 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bengals -3 at Steelers
The Bengals are the better team, but the Steelers have the better quarterback and are getting points at home. That's good enough. Back Pittsburgh.
Bengals 24 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Ravens +6 at Lions
The Lions are actually good, but they'll make a few mistakes, and the Ravens are one of those teams that outperforms its peripherals. Take the points.
Ravens 26 - 23
Last week we went 7-9 to go 99-100-9 on the year. Last year we went 121-129-6 on the regular season. From 1999-2012 we've gone 1,810-1,641 (52.4%), not including ties.
