This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Lions | 20.60% | 675 | 87.10% | 2.66 |
| BENGALS | Texans | 18.90% | 525 | 84.00% | 3.02 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 18.20% | 230 | 69.70% | 5.52 |
| EAGLES | Dolphins | 12.70% | 245 | 71.01% | 3.68 |
| Panthers | TITANS | 8.60% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.69 |
| RAVENS | Jaguars | 7.10% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.22 |
| RAMS | Bears | 6.50% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.63 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 3.60% | 200 | 66.67% | 1.20 |
| Patriots | GIANTS | 1.30% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.31 |
| RAIDERS | Vikings | 0.90% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.37 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Because no team has especially heavy ownership, this is largely going to go according to the Vegas odds, i.e., there's just not that much payoff for fading the biggest favorites this week. Of course, as your pools thin out, you'll want to check your opponents' histories and get a better sense of who they're likely to use as it could diverge significantly from these overall numbers.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
They're coming off two straight road losses, but the Packers are so much better at home, they got their passing game going last week at Carolina and face one of the worst teams in the NFL. I give Green Bay
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Lions | 20.60% | 675 | 87.10% | 2.66 |
| BENGALS | Texans | 18.90% | 525 | 84.00% | 3.02 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 18.20% | 230 | 69.70% | 5.52 |
| EAGLES | Dolphins | 12.70% | 245 | 71.01% | 3.68 |
| Panthers | TITANS | 8.60% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.69 |
| RAVENS | Jaguars | 7.10% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.22 |
| RAMS | Bears | 6.50% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.63 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 3.60% | 200 | 66.67% | 1.20 |
| Patriots | GIANTS | 1.30% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.31 |
| RAIDERS | Vikings | 0.90% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.37 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Because no team has especially heavy ownership, this is largely going to go according to the Vegas odds, i.e., there's just not that much payoff for fading the biggest favorites this week. Of course, as your pools thin out, you'll want to check your opponents' histories and get a better sense of who they're likely to use as it could diverge significantly from these overall numbers.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
They're coming off two straight road losses, but the Packers are so much better at home, they got their passing game going last week at Carolina and face one of the worst teams in the NFL. I give Green Bay an 89 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
I expect the Texans, off the bye, to be up for this game against the undefeated Bengals, but Cincinnati is at home, and they're such a balanced team. I give the Bengals an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' record is terrible, but they played five road games in seven weeks, and four of those were on the west coast. Moreover, their biggest margin of defeat was eight, and that was in Arizona, a game in which they had the ball inside the 10-yard line when Joe Flacco threw the game-sealing pick. In other words, the Ravens are far better than their record. Coming off the bye and at home, I think they'll handle an improving, but still below-average Jaguars teams. I give the Ravens a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
I think the Giants will shoot it out with them, but New York's defense isn't good, and the Patriots rarely beat themselves. Even on the road, I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
5. Denver Broncos
Denver is missing some key players on defense (possibly DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib), and their offense isn't good enough to put teams away. That said, they're tougher at home, and the Chiefs are both bad against the pass and unable to generate big plays. I give the Broncos a 68 percent chance to win this game.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are erratic, but their offense played better last week in Dallas, and the Dolphins can't seem to get their passing game going. And minus Cameron Wake, the Dolphins defense is far less formidable. I give the Eagles a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Carolina Panthers - They're undefeated, but they're merely a good, not great team, and the Titans are improving now that Marcus Mariota's healthy and Ken Whisenhunt is gone. This also strikes me as a let-down game after Carolina's big in-conference win against the Packers.
St. Louis Rams - The Rams could throttle the Bears, but Nick Foles has been so poor, it's hard to trust them, and Jay Cutler has actually played well.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Browns are a bad team, but Landry Jones is starting for the Steelers, and Pittsburgh's defense isn't good enough to make sure Jones won't get exposed.
