This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads south of the border for this week's World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.
The field gets a big bump up in class from last week, as five of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will be on hand, a list highlighted by world No. 2 and tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler, who checks in at 9-1 odds. Last year, Viktor Hovland -- at 16-1 -- successfully defended his title, defeating Carlos Ortiz by four shots for his third Tour victory.
El Camaleon Golf Club is the host venue and plays as one of the shorter courses on Tour. The track is a par-71 that features four par-3s and three par-5s and plays at just over 7,000 yards. Although we don't have any Strokes Gained data to draw from, driving accuracy is a key factor here, as errant tee shots will likely find the tree-lined fairways and lead to dropped shots. Just a pair of the par-4s play over 460 yards, and distance off the tee matters about as little here as anywhere else.
In addition to accurate drivers, I will be targeting strong iron players. This sets up as a second-shot golf course, and players will have plenty of birdie opportunities if they find the fairways.
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Excellent at El Camaleon
The following five golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have averaged the most birdies or better per round at El Camaleon Golf Club since 2017.
- Viktor Hovland: 6.1
- Matt Kuchar: 5.7
- Adam Long: 5.6
- Danny Lee: 5.5
- Brendon Todd: 5.4
It's no surprise to see Hovland atop the list. After missing the cut in his first two trips to Mayakoba he took home the title each of the last two years. Hovland has bounced back from a rough three-month stretch earlier in the year, recording three top-5s over his last eight starts. He had a chance to win in each of those three instances but was ultimately done in by issues in the final round. Given his track record at El Camaleon, that should be less of a concern here. Hovland is the second choice on the board this week at 10-1, and rightfully so. A bit farther down the list is Kuchar, who checks in at 50-1 and should be a popular choice among those who like the course history angle. Kuchar followed up his win here in 2018 with a pair of top-25 finishes, and he has played well this fall, gaining 0.99 shots on approach over eight rounds. He could certainly find himself in contention this week.
Approach the Bench
These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Tom Hoge: 0.99
- Jason Day: 0.87
- Collin Morikawa: 0.82
- Brian Harman: 0.80
- Tony Finau: 0.78
Hoge is far from the flashiest golfer on Tour, but he continues to produce solid results, notching five consecutive top-15 finishes. He has gotten the job done with exceptional iron play, ranking top-5 in SG: Approach in back-to-back tournaments. Hoge -- listed at 30-1 -- will be making his eighth trip to Mayakoba, and his best result at this venue was a T3 in 2020. Another player who has been quite consistent of late is Harman, who made nine of his last 10 cuts and recorded three top-10s during that stretch. Although his results in this event have been average, it's difficult to overlook him at 40-1 considering his recent form and fit on this course.
World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: Outright Picks
Tony Finau (14-1)
Finau is making his first start of the season, but if he plays like he finished last season, you could make the argument he's the player to beat this week. Finau found the winner's circle in two of his last five events and also put up two other top-10s during that stretch. He also has a pair of top-10s at Mayakoba.
Brendon Todd (45-1)
With driving accuracy being a key factor, you won't find many players that are a better course fit than the short-hitting yet extremely accurate Todd. He's started the season off strong with two top-10s in four starts, and he ranked top-5 in SG: Approach in each of those events.
Russell Henley (45-1)
It was surprising to see Henley not among the top 20 choices when the odds were released, but people have noticed, as only 13 players are now listed above him. Henley has had mediocre results at this event, but his strengths are accuracy off the tee and iron play, which fit this course well. Henley has had success on short tracks, as three of his four top-10s last season came on courses under 7,100 yards. He's not a good a value as he was but is still well worth a look.
World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: Top-10 Wagers
Keith Mitchell (5-1)
Mitchell is gaining a whopping 1.08 strokes per round off the tee over his last 20 rounds, and while this course isn't exactly designed for bombers, it never hurts to hit it long and straight. Mitchell has mainly been held back by poor putting, so I like his chances if he's able to right the ship on the greens.
Kevin Streelman (8-1)
Streelman recorded four top-25s over a five-event stretch last season, and he also notched a runner-up late in the summer at the Barbasol Championship. His game fits El Camaleon well, and he did post a T4 here in 2017.
David Lipsky (12-1)
Lipksy's only two top-10s last season came at the Mexico Open and in Puntacana, so he should be looking forward to another trip to Mexico. His best stats last season were driving accuracy (30th) and SG: Approach (40th), which we know will be key factors at El Camaleon.
World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: Head-to-Head Matchups
Aaron Rai (-110) over Robby Shelton
Shelton has played well this fall after regaining his PGA Tour card, but Rai remains the better golfer of the two. Rai is also playing well and notched a T15 at Mayakoba last year. Shelton is pretty short off the tee but isn't all that straight, either, and his skills around the greens aren't as much of an asset when birdies come in bunches.
Hayden Buckley (-120) over Nick Hardy
Buckley continues to play quality golf in his second season on Tour. He has posted three consecutive top-20 results and notched only the second top-5 of his career at the ZOZO Championship. I like him in this matchup over Hardy, who is making his first trip to El Camaleon and doesn't fit the venue well due to his erratic driving.
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