2023 Sanderson Farms Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on October 4, 2023 1:35PM EST

Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Preview

Following an exciting Ryder Cup, the FedExCup Fall continues this week in Jackson, Mississippi with the annual Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson.

Ludvig Aberg -- the lone player coming over from Marco Simone -- headlines the field and is the betting favorite at 11-1 odds.

Last year, long shot Mackenzie Hughes -- at 130-1 -- defeated Sepp Straka on the second playoff hole for his second PGA Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Wednesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par-72, 7,461 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Sanderson Farms Championship Winners Over Last Five Years

SG: Off-the-Tee: 13.6
SG: Approach: 11.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 38.2
SG: Putting: 21.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 5.6
Driving Distance: 8.4
Driving Accuracy: 43.2

The venue looks long at first glance at just under 7,500 yards, but there are only three par-4s that play over 450 yards, so it's not as long as you might think. Off the tee, this is a course where golfers will pull driver often as the rough is minimal. While there is some water throughout the course, it mainly comes into play on approach shots. Without much penalty off the tee, it's no surprise to see the stats reflect that there's much more of a premium on distance over accuracy. Tee-to-green play stands out as the most notable stat, followed by iron play, and expect players to have a lot of approach shots from the 100-150 yard range. The winning score has reached at least 16-under-par during its eight-year existence, so I'll be targeting those who can post low scores.

Talkin' Bout Jackson

The following players, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at the Country Club of Jackson since 2018.

Champ tops the list largely due to his surprising win back in 2018, and he followed it up with a T28 fefore skipping the event the last three years. Now battling to keep his Tour card, Champ will return to Jackson as a long shot once again at 80-1 to win. He's struggled mightily this season, having only made 8-of-25 cuts, but his solid ball striking and track record here make him someone to keep an eye on. Another player that's taken a liking to the venue is the second-year pro Hardy, who led the field in SG: Approach here last year en route to a top-5 finish. Unlike Champ, he's had a much better season, with a win at the Zurich Classic team event and three top-25s over his last nine starts.

Getting it Done in Tee-to-Green

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

Jaeger enters the week as the second favorite behind Aberg at 16-1, with the oddsmakers taking note of his recent play. Although Jaeger's putting often leaves much to be desired, his tee-to-green play more than makes up for it and led to five top-25s over his last nine starts. He's familiar with the course, as this will be his seventh trip. He posted three finishes of T30 or better over his last four. A little further down the board we find Smalley at 40-1. He is coming off a solid summer with five top-25s since May. That included finishing just two shots back of Sepp Straka at the John Deere Classic. He looks like a great target for betting and DFS contests.

Sanderson Farms Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Emiliano Grillo (22-1)

Grillo is the only player in the field that qualified for the TOUR Championship in August, and he had an excellent second half of the season with a win and five top-10s since mid-April. He's finished 11th or better in SG: Approach in three of four appearances here and posted a T5 last year.

Beau Hossler (30-1)

Hossler is an intriguing choice due to being a strong course fit, as he ranks 30th in driving distance this season and fifth in SG: Putting -- two areas that will play a key role in determining the winner. He's racked up a whopping 11 top-25s this season and finished T10 here in 2018. Hossler should be able to take advantage of the weaker field.

Dylan Wu (55-1)

Wu is one of those players that flies under the radar because he doesn't excel in any one area, but he's not below average in any regard, either. He's gaining shots in every strokes-gained category and is top-40 in Birdie or Better Percentage and bogey avoidance. His best finish came three starts ago with a T5 at the 3M Open.

Sanderson Farms Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Akshay Bhatia (9-2)

If you like to bet on ball strikers, there's not many players in the field better than Bhatia. The 21-year-old picked up his maiden Tour victory in July at the alternate event Barracuda Championship, and he's gaining 0.9 strokes off the tee and on approach combined per round this season. He's played much better in these lesser events, too.

Greyson Sigg (7-1)

Sigg will be making his third trip to Jackson and is coming off a top-10 finish at the event last year. I like the value on him to do it again, especially considering he was seventh in SG: Approach in Napa a few weeks ago.

Charley Hoffman (12-1)

The fall series is vital to a lot of players looking to retain their Tour cards, and Hoffman falls into that category, as he currently sits 138th in the FedExCup Standings. He's played well at this venue, finishing top-40 in all four of his appearances, including a T6 two years ago.

Sanderson Farms Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

K.H. Lee (+100) over Davis Thompson

Lee has had a disappointing year, but an extended layoff seemed to be what he needed, as his T14 result to open the fall was his best finish since a top-10 at the Wells Fargo in early May. He was fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green in Napa, which is a promising sign that he's finding his 2022 form. Thompson isn't a great target in matchups, especially as a favorite, as he missed six of his last 12 cuts and did not record a top-20 finish during that span.

Sam Stevens (+100) over Luke List

Stevens is my preferred choice in this matchup as a slight underdog against List, as his cut percentage is better and his short game is far superior. His five top-15s this year also far outweigh List's one. Since picking up his first victory last January, List has failed to record a top-10 since, and he is only 119th in SG: Total.

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