2024 The American Express Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on January 16, 2024 5:39PM EST

The American Express Betting Preview

Following a couple weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour heads to Palm Springs to kick off the West Coast Swing with The American Express. The event is unique in that golfers will rotate between three different courses -- La Quinta CC, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the PGA West Stadium Course -- with a cut after 54 holes. After that, the top 65 golfers plus ties will play the final round at the Stadium Course. The field is headlined by world No. 1 and tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler, who checks in with 11-2 odds. Scheffler is one of four top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking making the trip.

Last year, betting favorite Jon Rahm -- at the same 11-2 odds -- picked up his ninth PGA Tour victory with a one-shot win over Davis Thompson.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Stadium - Par 72, 7,187 yards
La Quinta - Par 72, 7,060 yards
Nicklaus - Par 72, 7,147 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: The American Express Winners Since 2019

SG: Off-the-Tee: 22.4
SG: Approach: 13.0
SG: Around-the-Green: 31.6
SG: Putting: 17.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 15.4
Driving Distance: 36.8
Driving Accuracy: 24.8

It's important to note that strokes gained data is only tracked at the Stadium Course, so the stats don't provide the full picture of the event. Although the rough is minimal on all three courses, each venue has water danger, including seven holes on the Stadium Course. If you can avoid errant drives, the event sets up as a birdie-fest that Jon Rahm notably described as a putting contest. To bolster that point, the winner has reached at least 23-under-par five straight years. Players will have wedges in their hands often, with the only long approaches primarily coming on the par-5s. The Nicklaus course played as the easiest of the three at a 68.7 scoring average last year, while La Quinta played narrowly as the most difficult at 69.6. We've seen a variety of styles fare well here, so I'm mainly focusing on players with a history of success, those that played well in the fall and/or in Hawaii, as well as those that approach it well inside 125 yards.

The Express Train

The following golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at The American Express over the last five years.

Although Cantlay has not won in Palm Springs, he's been about as consistent as they come here, finishing T26 or better with three top-10s over four appearances. His highlight came in 2021, when he closed with an 11-under 61 to ultimately come up one short of Si Woo Kim. Cantlay opened his season in Kapalua, where he posted four rounds of 68 or better en route to a respectable T12 finish. Another player with a runner-up result on his resume here -- albeit much further down the betting board at 130-1 odds -- is Hoge. The veteran is coming off a disappointing year and would certainly be a long-shot winner, but his stellar iron play makes him an intriguing low-cost DFS option.

Approach the Bench

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

As usual, Scheffler pops up on both lists due to his combination of success at the event and exceptional approach play. Before he burst onto the scene, he posted a third-place finish here in 2020. Scheffler's year started off with a T5 finish at The Sentry, where he finished second in SG: Off-the-Tee and third in SG: Approach. The putter continues to let him down, though. Meanwhile, Kirk started his year off with a win and was very much in the hunt at Waialae until a disappointing final round. He's coming off his best-ever finish in this event with a T3 result. Kirk's only weakness as a shorter hitter shouldn't hold him back much at three courses that all play under 7,200 yards.

The American Express: Outright Picks

Sungjae Im (20-1)

Im was a top-10 machine over the last two years, with 18 such results over 57 starts -- good for 32 percent. Surprisingly, though, he hasn't won since 2021. That streak can't last much longer. He has posted a top-20 result in all five appearances in Palm Springs, so this could be the week he ends the drought.

Adam Hadwin (50-1)

Hadwin is an excellent target if you like the course history angle, as he has finished no worse than T48 across eight appearances while notching three top-3 results. He only made one start in the fall, finishing one shot back at the Shriners. He's a great value at this price.

Akshay Bhatia (55-1)

Bhatia is certainly trending in the right direction after posting a T13 last week in which he was seventh in SG: Approach -- and that was on the heels of being just one back through three rounds the week prior. The 21-year-old is on the verge of a breakthrough season.

The American Express: Top-10 Wagers

Shane Lowry (13-2)

Lowry will be making his first appearance at this event, but is there a course that doesn't suit his game well? He gained shots in every strokes-gained category last season and was 20th from tee to green. He lacked top-end finishes last year but did have eight top-20s across 17 starts.

Alex Smalley (15-2)

Smalley led the field in SG: Approach at the Stadium Course a year ago and has posted back-to-back top-25s at this event. He was top-50 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach last season and could be in line for a much better season with some improvement on the greens.

Michael Kim (12-1)

Kim may be more known for his Twitter presence, but he's quietly playing some quality golf of late, having made five cuts in a row and recording three top-25s during that stretch. He grew up in Southern California, so he should feel at home this week.

The American Express: Head-to-Head Matchups

Jason Day (-110) over Wyndham Clark

I went 2-0 in matchups last week, and I'll look to keep the momentum going with Day, who has made both of his cuts here, posted a T18 last year and is coming off a top-10 at The Sentry. Clark, on the other hand, was a mediocre T50 here a year ago, and he doesn't appear to be playing his best golf. He only beat one golfer at the Hero World Challenge and posted a modest T29 at Kapalua.

Beau Hossler (-110) over Rickie Fowler

I'm excited about Hossler's potential in 2024 after he finished the year strong with three top-15 results. He's shown himself to be one of the better short-game players on Tour, and his ball striking was much improved last season. Meanwhile, Fowler is trending in a negative direction after a resurgent 2023, as he has bested only a combined six golfers over his last two tournaments.

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