This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
There are longer breaks between majors on the PGA Tour, but the gap between the U.S. Open and the British Open might be the toughest to get through. There aren't any notable stops and the elite players tend to take their longest breaks of the season during this span.
The results from the events within that space this year didn't help the situation either as more than one ended in a blowout, including last week's John Deere Classic as Michael Kim went all Francesco Molinari on the field and turned it into a laugher. The good news, of course, is that we no longer have to worry about these events between majors, because the British Open is here. Not only that, but it promises to be one of the more entertaining majors in recent memory because there is no clear favorite.
That seems to be how all the majors are now. There are so many quality golfers out there, that there is rarely going to be a clear favorite, yet we are bound to have a quality champion. Gone are the days when wanting the top pick in a major pool or for that matter, the top half of the round. That doesn't mean that the winner is going to be a surprise, though, it just means that the depth of these major fields now are insane. It also means a seismic shift in one and done strategy as well. Where years ago you were wise to save Tiger Woods
There are longer breaks between majors on the PGA Tour, but the gap between the U.S. Open and the British Open might be the toughest to get through. There aren't any notable stops and the elite players tend to take their longest breaks of the season during this span.
The results from the events within that space this year didn't help the situation either as more than one ended in a blowout, including last week's John Deere Classic as Michael Kim went all Francesco Molinari on the field and turned it into a laugher. The good news, of course, is that we no longer have to worry about these events between majors, because the British Open is here. Not only that, but it promises to be one of the more entertaining majors in recent memory because there is no clear favorite.
That seems to be how all the majors are now. There are so many quality golfers out there, that there is rarely going to be a clear favorite, yet we are bound to have a quality champion. Gone are the days when wanting the top pick in a major pool or for that matter, the top half of the round. That doesn't mean that the winner is going to be a surprise, though, it just means that the depth of these major fields now are insane. It also means a seismic shift in one and done strategy as well. Where years ago you were wise to save Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson for late in the season, now there's just no sense in saving the big guns for a later date, because there are too many quality golfers to use.
The next four weeks will require plenty of firepower as two majors and a WGC event are held in that span, but there should be plenty of good options, even for those that used everyone in the top-10 already. Wait a minute, did I just write, three of the next four events are majors or WGC events? It seems like just yesterday we were fighting through a rough spot on the schedule.
This week: British Open - Carnoustie Golf Links, Carnoustie, Scotland
Last Year: Jordan Spieth shot a final-round 69 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Matt Kuchar.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Justin Rose
This is going to be a week where the mentally strong rise to the top. Early word is that Carnoustie is playing lightning-fast, so no one is going to overpower the course, everyone is going to be long this week, it will be about making good decisions. Rose is about as steady as they come and he always seems to be in the mix. Rose hasn't fared well in his previous Open starts and perhaps that's because he puts too much pressure on himself, but he's playing at such a high level that he should be able to overcome any added pressure this week.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth is not playing his best golf this season, but he wasn't exactly lighting it up last year prior to his win at this event. The course will favor Spieth this week as he'll have plenty of length off the tee and we know he's generally a solid decision maker on the golf course. Spieth will not be at the top of many lists this week, but as he showed last year, he's capable of winning a major, even if his game doesn't look great entering the week.
Tommy Fleetwood
Oddly enough, I would feel better about this pick if he hadn't made that run at the U.S. Open as there's no way he'll sneak under the radar this week, but either way, Fleetwood looks like a solid pick this week. If I have any reservations, it's that he withdrew last week because of fatigue. Hopefully the week off will result in a refreshed Fleetwood.
Zach Johnson
Not a name I generally associate with the Open, but perhaps I should as he's a former champion and he's made the cut at this event in each of his past 10 starts. Only one other golfer in the field can claim that, but unlike Martin Kaymer, Johnson has actually played well this season. Johnson disappointed last week at the John Deere, but he closed with a solid round and perhaps that means he's back on top of his game.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy has been the favorite or among the favorites at just about every major over the past five years, but he's started to lose that status and perhaps this is the time when he puts it all back together. McIlroy has one of the better Open Championship track records in the field this week, with a win and two other top-5s in his past three starts at this event. Like many Euros, McIlroy must get past the additional pressure that this week brings, but as he proved in 2014, he's certainly capable.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Adam Scott
Scott has a fairly strong track record at this event, but he's just not the same player he was a few years ago and he seems to be missing that extra gear that saw him win several times on the PGA Tour and even a major. Scott showed some game in a run up to the U.S. Open, but he failed to make the cut once at the Open. He'll have a better chance of making the cut this week, but it's unlikely that he gets much done on the weekend.
Henrik Stenson
I would not normally fade Stenson this week – after all, his track record at this event is about as good as anyone's in the field this week – but Stenson withdrew from the Scottish Open last week with an elbow injury. According to Stenson, he's "hoping to be fit for Carnoustie" this week. Stenson is certainly capable of playing well this week and who knows, maybe his elbow feels fine come Thursday, but as of now, I wouldn't use him in a one and done, nor would I take him early in a British Open pool.
Phil Mickelson
I mentioned earlier that this week will be mostly about making good decisions and it's hard to claim that Mickelson has been making good decisions on the course lately. Mickelson just hasn't been himself lately and he doesn't appear to be in the proper mental state to pull off another major win.
Bubba Watson
Watson has played incredibly well this season, but the fact remains that he's excellent in certain spots and not so good in others – no matter his form. The Open is one of those spots where Watson has never thrived. Watson has never cracked the top-20 at this event through nine starts and with the course nice and fast, he loses one big advantage that he normally has on the field.
Tyrell Hatton
Hatton is ranked 23rd in world and he's played the majority of his golf in Europe, but for some reason, and again, maybe it's the added pressure, Hatton has rarely played well at this event. Hatton did post a top-5 in 2016, but he's missed the cut in his other five starts at this event. That's not to say that he'll miss the cut again this week, but I wouldn't assume that he'll play well just because he's a high-ranking Euro.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Zach Johnson (T16) - $81,365; Season - $7,235,820
This week: Justin Rose - I knew after the U.S. Open that this pick would come down to Rose, Fleetwood or Stenson. With Stenson and Fleetwood withdrawing for different reasons last week, it made this pick pretty easy. Rose is not only a safe play this week, but he provides as much upside as anyone in the field.
PGATOUR.COM PICKS
Starters: Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy
Bench: Zach Johnson, Tiger Woods
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Zach Johnson - (T16); Streak - 3
This week: Justin Rose - No need to mess around and get cute during a major. As mentioned, Rose has the upside, but he's also among the safest picks in the field this week. He doesn't have the best track record at this event, but he's playing at a very high level right now and I can't imagine he'll even flirt with the cut line this week.
