This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Remember my opening from last week? You know, the one where I stated a name that virtually no one had heard of and went onto explain that it wasn't at all unexpected to have a guy like that break through during the fall schedule? Well, I could have easily done a quick search-and-replace with Emiliano Grillo and Smylie Kaufman for this week's open. Yes, that is his name, and, no, you are not alone if this is the first time you've heard it.
It's difficult to explain, this phenomenon of unknown players winning during the fall season, but perhaps it has something to do with ignorance. Ignorance is often used as a derogatory term, but at its roots, it simply means, "lack of knowledge of information." In this case, it refers to a bunch of young guys, often fresh off the Web.com Tour, who simply don't know that it's not supposed to be this easy to win on the PGA Tour. How many times have we seen a young guy crack under the pressure during the regular season? It's as if the number of people paying attention factors into how a golfer performs down the stretch on Sunday, and with most of the sporting world's eyes elsewhere in fall, well there just isn't as much pressure.
Weaker fields certainly play into it as well, but, as I mentioned last week, the days of the "silly season" are gone and top players often make at least a couple starts during fall.
Remember my opening from last week? You know, the one where I stated a name that virtually no one had heard of and went onto explain that it wasn't at all unexpected to have a guy like that break through during the fall schedule? Well, I could have easily done a quick search-and-replace with Emiliano Grillo and Smylie Kaufman for this week's open. Yes, that is his name, and, no, you are not alone if this is the first time you've heard it.
It's difficult to explain, this phenomenon of unknown players winning during the fall season, but perhaps it has something to do with ignorance. Ignorance is often used as a derogatory term, but at its roots, it simply means, "lack of knowledge of information." In this case, it refers to a bunch of young guys, often fresh off the Web.com Tour, who simply don't know that it's not supposed to be this easy to win on the PGA Tour. How many times have we seen a young guy crack under the pressure during the regular season? It's as if the number of people paying attention factors into how a golfer performs down the stretch on Sunday, and with most of the sporting world's eyes elsewhere in fall, well there just isn't as much pressure.
Weaker fields certainly play into it as well, but, as I mentioned last week, the days of the "silly season" are gone and top players often make at least a couple starts during fall. Whatever the reason that these unknown players find success in fall, it's officially a trend, which means we'll probably have to learn another new name this week.
This week: CIMB Classic - Kuala Lumper Golf and Country Club, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Last Year: Ryan Moore shot a final-round 67 on his way to a three-stroke victory over three players.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Kevin Na
Na was in a group of three players that finished three strokes behind Ryan Moore last year at this event and is coming off a runner-up last week at the Shriners, finishing just one stroke shy of eventual winner Smylie Kaufman.
Ryan Moore
Moore has never lost here. Let that sink in; every time he's played here, he's won. OK, so it's only been twice, but still, it's impressive. Now, as to why he's not No. 1 this week ... it's really hard to win any event three times in a row. That and his form isn't quite as sharp as Na's.
Gary Woodland
After spending the first part of this article explaining how newcomers seem to have an advantage in fall, I've started this list with three established players, but there's a reason. This event, in its brief history, has lent itself to veteran winners and contenders for whatever reason. Woodland has finished runner-up here the last two years and should be in the mix again this year.
Justin Thomas
Three first-timers finished in the top 10 here last year, so there's no reason to shy away from the golfers teeing it up here for the first time this week. Thomas is one of those players, but that's not why I like him this week. I like him because he's one of those young guys who thrive at this time of year, and when we last saw him he was in solid form, finishing third at the Frys.com Open.
Chad Campbell
With only two years of history at this event and many first-timers in the field, it's tough to find a lot of players to consider this week. With that in mind, Campbell is an intriguing pick because he's coming off a top-10 last week and is not someone you are likely to use in the 2016 regular season.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Hideki Matsuyama
As has been the case during the first two weeks of the season, a big name occupies the top spot on the avoid list again this week. Matsuyama has carded two top-25s in two starts here, but keep in mind that the field is smaller at this event, so a top-25 isn't quite as impressive. That, and Matsuyama is a guy you'll want to save for later in the season.
Patrick Reed
A similar theory to that of Matsuyama in play here. It's not that Reed is a must-save for later in the season, but he is probably best utilized during the first few months of the calendar year. He's also failed to crack the top 25 here in two tries.
David Lingmerth
Lingmerth has the lowest average finish here of any player who's made two starts. Like I said, there isn't much to go on with track history, but it seems clear that Lingmerth does not have a feel for this course. His best finish of his two starts was a T39 last year.
Steven Bowditch
A couple forces working against Bowditch this week. The first is his performance last year at this event where he finished T49. The second, and probably more important, is the 83 he shot during the third round at the Shriner's last week. Could that be a fluke? Probably, but I'm not taking a chance on a guy coming off an 83.
Jason Dufner
Dufner does not need to be saved for later in the season, but he should be saved for when he's on a roll. Dufner is a major champion and for a time, he was one of the better players on the PGA Tour. Let's wait until he shows that form again before taking him this season.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Jason Bohn (T2) - $355,733; Season - $355,733
This week: Kevin Na - Na has always been one of the more streaky players on the PGA Tour, which works in my favor this week as he's been on a roll lately. Everything points to another top-10 this week, or possibly better.
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Kevin Streelman (T16); Streak - 1
This week: No cut
