This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
GENESIS OPEN
Purse: $7M
Winner's Share: $1.26M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Pacific Palisades, Calif.
Course: Riviera Country Club
Yardage: 7,322
Par: 71
2016 champion: Bubba Watson
Tournament Preview
The stars head to Hollywood this week, and there are lot of them, as the top field of the season thus far tees it up at one of the PGA Tour's grand old courses. Eight of the top 10 players in the world will be at famed Riviera, a course every bit as major-caliber as it's always been, but whose grounds simply aren't expansive enough for today's modern corporate demands (parking, tents, hospitality areas, etc.). Riviera has not hosted a major since the 1995 PGA Championship, so we simply enjoy it annually as the final event of the West Coast Swing. It's a shame, because it's a classic, tree-lined design with narrow fairways requiring golfers to bring all facets of their game.
One thing gamers should know right away is that the weather forecast is awful, with heavy rains and chilly temperatures on tap for Friday and continuing into part of Saturday. Completing two rounds on time would be an achievement. Two years ago, in rainy conditions, Riviera was the fifth hardest of the 52 courses played on Tour, and James Hahn was a surprise playoff winner with the measly score of 6-under. Last year, as well as in 2014, Bubba Watson won with a final score of 15-under-par.
A 7,300-yard par-71 is not especially long these days, but it will be more so after a wet winter in Southern California and with more rain during the event. Riviera is one of only two courses whose fairways and rough feature kikuyu, a gnarly grass that just loves to grab and twist clubs on impact (Torrey Pines is the other). It is a grass rare to most parts of the United States but more common in Australia and South Africa (hint, hint!). Long drivers will have an edge even if they find the rough -- and they will, because there are six par-4s in excess of 450 yards – and hitting wedge out of the kikuyu instead of a longer iron will be a distinct advantage. Riviera is known for four holes in particular, beginning with the par-5, 503-yard 1st, which was the absolute easiest hole among all 900 played on the PGA Tour last year, almost a full shot under par. If golfers don't play that at least 4-under for the week, they are already trailing. Then there's the par-3 sixth hole with the quirky bunker in the middle of the green; the diabolical par-4, 315-yard 10th, where golfers trying to drive the green will leave with double bogey more often than eagle; and finally the brutish, uphill par-4, 475-yard 18th culminating at a pint-size green.
Jason Day, still No. 1 in the world, leads the world-class contingent, joined by No. 3 Dustin Johnson, No. 5 Hideki Matsuyama and No. 6 Jordan Spieth. Matsuyama, Spieth and world No. 9 Sergio Garcia are all coming off victories in their prior starts, and even though none of them has won here before, it would not be a surprise if one of them again emerged victorious this week. However, we can't take them all in the same lineup, and we will delve into whom we like best in the "Value Picks" below.
Key Stats to Winning at Riviera
• Driving distance
• Greens in regulation
• Approach-shot proximity to the hole
• Scrambling
• Putting inside 10 feet
Past Champions
2016 - Bubba Watson
2015 - James Hahn
2014 - Bubba Watson
2013 - John Merrick
2012 - Bill Haas
2011 - Aaron Baddeley
2010 - Steve Stricker
2009 - Phil Mickelson
2008 - Phil Mickelson
2007 - Charles Howell III
Champion's Profile
As we mentioned above, long hitters will have an edge, but a look at the past 10 champions shows there are different kinds of golfers capable of winning at Riviera. Historically, greens in regulation have been elusive, and golfers who can get the ball close to the hole from the fairway have an edge, but with smallish greens and tricky runoffs, golfers more often than not will also have to display their scrambling acumen. Every winner since 2010 has been top-20 in scrambling; Bubba Watson was fourth last year. As for proximity, seven of the top-10 finishers in 2016 were top-25 in the stat; in 2015, eight of the top-11 were top-25. Watson was sixth last year and was fifth in 2014, and in between, James Hahn won while finishing 15th in proximity. This year's tournament may parallel the 2015 event more than other recent years based on the weather forecast. The top finishers were all over the map statistically that year, but if we had to narrow it down, those highly ranked in proximity and scrambling did the best, with scrambling paramount. Secondarily, we'll add putting from inside 10 feet, where the past two years that was harder on Riviera's bent/poa annua greens than on any other course on Tour. Bonus factoids that may mean nothing: the past 10 champions have all been at least 27 years old and had played the tournament at least twice previously, indicating the importance of course knowledge.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $11,500 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
This field is loaded at the top with eight of the top 10 players in the world. Matsuyama remains the hottest golfer around, picking up another win his last time out which gives him five victories worldwide since October. He has done fairly well at Riviera, with three top-25s in three starts, including T4 in 2015. If more ammo is needed, Matsuyama is 14th on Tour in scrambling and 16th putting inside 10 feet. A strong case certainly could be made for Jordan Spieth, but at a whopping $1,100 more than No. 2-priced Matsuyama, that's cash that can be spent elsewhere.
Dustin Johnson - $11,400 (8-1)
Johnson has done everything but win this tournament, and if he does break through this time, he can take over the No.1 ranking (as could Matsuyama). Johnson has five top-4 cashes the past seven years, two of them being runners-up. He also has two missed cuts, but none since 2013. We like Johnson a bit more than Matsuyama, and at $100 cheaper.
Jason Day - $10,000 (15-1)
Helloooo? No. 1 golfer in the world right here! Day is almost an afterthought this week, incredibly $2,500 cheaper than Spieth. Adam Scott is even ahead of him, at $10,300. Scott also merits consideration, and has a better course history than his fellow Aussie. Day has not played here since 2012, when he tied for 62nd, after missed cuts the two previous years. So what's to like about Day? He was T5 last week at Pebble Beach and was a few sloppy shots from contention. Really, at just $10,000, the world No. 1 is a bargain. At that price, he doesn't even have to win to pay off.
Sergio Garcia - $9,300 (20-1)
The Spaniard rounds out our stacked Tier 1. Garcia is coming off a win in Dubai in his last start, and he's no stranger to success at Riviera. He missed the cut last year, but was T4 in both 2012 and 2015. We're banking on the recently engaged Garcia, now up to No. 9 in the OWGR, being in a happier place.
Tier 2 Values
Justin Rose - $8,400 (20-1)
Rose has the tools to play well at Riviera, where he tied for 16th last year and posted two other top-15s through the years. Rose stumbled on Sunday at Pebble to tumble down the leaderboard, but he had a pair of top-4s in his two prior outings. He's 23rd in scrambling, T13 in proximity and T29 in GIR. At 20-1, the oddsmakers like what they see in Rose, certainly in relation to $8,400.
Shane Lowry - $7,900 (60-1)
Lowry was a steal last week at $7,000, and he rewarded his faithful with a T14 at Pebble. The Irishman was T16 the week before at Phoenix and T33 at Torrey Pines, where he got a taste of the kikuyu. Lowry has never played Riviera, so this is a bit of a gamble, but we don't need him to win. He has been playing well and is T22 in GIR.
Marc Leishman - $7,600 (60-1)
The Aussie has been on form with top-25s in all five of his 2016-17 starts, and he's 22nd in scrambling. Leishman had not had too much success at Riviera until notching a T5 last year. Sometimes, it takes a while.
Keegan Bradley - $7,500 (60-1)
The putting thing may come back to bite Bradley, and us. He was T4 here in 2015 and runner-up in 2012, with two more top-20s sandwiched in between. But last year, the first year of the anchored-putting ban, Bradley missed the cut. He's still strong tee to green, sitting T16 in GIR on Tour.
Tier 3 Values
Seung-Yul Noh - $7,400 (Field, 4-1)
Noh is on form and has good course history here. What more could you ask for, especially in Tier 3? Noh tied for eighth last week at Pebble. He also has top-20s in all three visits to Riviera, spanning the past four years. Yes, his scrambling numbers are horrid, but he has somehow managed to get it done at Riviera.
Branden Grace - $7,300 (60-1)
Grace hasn't teed it up in three weeks since a pair of back-to-back T13s at the Sony in Hawaii, and then in Abu Dhabi. He's another who has never played Riviera before, so what's his upside? Grace is the No. 17 golfer in the world and he's in Tier 3. Oh, and he's also fifth on Tour in par-4 scoring 450-500 yards. We're buying.
Brendan Steele - $7,100 (50-1)
We've probably jumped on Steele every week he's played, and he has yet to disappoint, so he will surely be a popular DraftKings play at this very cheap price. Where shall we begin? How about: he's got two top-sixes and two more top-20s to start the year; he's made five straight cuts at Riviera; he's from Southern California and knows kikuyu; and he's fifth in scrambling, 13th in GIR and T26 in proximity.
J.B. Holmes - $7,100 (40-1)
The oddsmakers don't consider DFS pricing before acting, but Holmes' price certainly doesn't jibe with his odds, and in a good way. He has had great success at Riviera, with six top-12s through the years, including T11 last year. He's T9 on Tour in putts from 5-10 feet.
Long-Shot Values
Ollie Schniederjans - $6,900 (100-1)
There ar not a lot of stats to suggest that Schniederjans will do well this week and he has never played Riviera before. However, since missing his first three cuts of the season, the Web.com grad has registered five straight cashes with two top-10s, including Torrey Pines. Interestingly, whiles he's 75th in overall scrambling, Schniederjans leads the Tour in scrambling from the fringe. Okay, there's a good stat.
Kelly Kraft - $6,900 (Field, 4-1)
Kraft was solo second behind Spieth last week at Pebble. He hasn't played Riviera before, but he has been so good the past five weeks (four top-30s and an MC) that we will take a flyer here.
Thomas Pieters - $6,700 (80-1)
The Belgian, who was Europe's breakout star in the Ryder Cup, has never played Riviera before -- as a pro. But while at the University of Illinois, Pieters won the 2012 NCAA Championship at Riviera, with the likes of Spieth, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Patrick Rodgers in the field. He's top-50 in the world (No. 47) and you don't see that very often at $6,700. Pieters is here on a sponsor's exemption, likely because Feb. 21 is the first cutoff to qualify for the WGC-Mexico Championship, with the OWGR's top 50 getting in.
Luke List - $6,400 (Field, 4-1)
List was a DFS darling during the fall season, and he notched his fifth top-15 cash of the season at the Sony Open in January. Since then, however, as fields have improved, List has gone T41-MC-MC. Still, he is a big hitter who tied for 20th in his Riviera debut last year, and he has decent GIR and proximity numbers. At the lowest price in the field, this sure seems like a decent play. We'll find out Sunday (and hopefully not Friday).
