DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Hero World Challenge

HERO WORLD CHALLENGE

Purse: $3.5M
Winner's Share: $1M
FedEx Cup Points: 0
Location: New Providence Island, the Bahamas
Course: Albany
Yardage: 7,267
Par: 72
2015 champion: Bubba Watson

Tournament Preview

Eighteen golfers will take part in this invitational, 17 of whom are among the top-40 in the world. The 18th is the one who invited the other 17. Tiger Woods makes his long-anticipated return to golf in the annual event that benefits his foundation. The No. 898th-ranked Woods has not played in almost 16 months, since tying for 10th at the 2015 Wyndham Championship. All the talk leading up to the start of this tournament on Thursday surrounds Woods -- his equipment, his sponsors, his nerves, his back and on and on. For fantasy purposes, it might be fun picking Woods, but counting on him to be a productive part of your lineup is another matter. With only 18 golfers, finding separation from other gamers will be a challenge. But safe to say, if you could land six of the top-10 finishers, you'd be in great shape. The trouble is, how do you determine whom to pick? The Hero moved to Albany in the Bahamas just last year, so there's only 72 total rounds of golf from which to glean information. Even if trends were spotted, the sample size is so small it would hardly matter. Anyway, 12 of the 18 from last year are back, including winner Bubba Watson, who was followed by Patrick Reed three strokes back, then Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth, all of whom are back this year. The Ernie Els design is an interesting one in that it is a par-72 but with five par-3s and five par-5s, three of which measure between 590 and 600 yards. Those are not reachable by everyone, but certainly by Watson and Dustin Johnson, who finished 15th last year but arrives now as the top-ranked golfer in the field at No. 3 (Johnson could pass Rory McIlroy for No. 2 in the OWGR if he wins this week). But getting back to determining a lineup, it's quite the crapshoot/dart throw/choose your own metaphor. Not only are there so few golfers, some have largely been inactive the past couple of months. Plus, we don't know who will really try to win and who will enjoy a week in the Bahamas and a guaranteed six-figure check. Watson, Johnson, Reed, Justin Rose, Zach Johnson and J.B. Holmes have been for the most part idle of late. Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Russell Knox and Emiliano Grillo have been very active. Weather-wise, some thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday afternoon, with the rest of the weekend dry. Playing on a Caribbean island, wind can be a factor. More on that in the Champion's Profile below.

Key Stats to Winning at Albany

• Driving accuracy
• Greens in regulation
• One-putt percentage (putts per GIR)
• Par-3 and Par-5 Birdie or better percentage

Past Champions

2015 - Bubba Watson
2014 - Jordan Spieth
2013 - Zach Johnson
2012 - Graeme McDowell
2011 - Tiger Woods
2010 - Graeme McDowell
2009 - Jim Furyk
2008 - Vijay Singh
2007 - Tiger Woods
2006 - Tiger Woods

Champion's Profile

As we mentioned above, there's not much of a profile to be gleaned from just one year of course history. But with five par-5s, we'd like to favor the bigger hitters. But more importantly, we will look at golfers who've been in tournament action. Getting the ball in the fairway and on the green remain the goal on just about any golf course, and good ball-strikers probably have a better chance of being successful at Albany. And further, in possible windy conditions, it's good to hone in on quality ball-strikers. Now for the wild card: What about Woods? He hasn't played since August 2015, so no one is rustier than him. Plus, with Nike phasing out golf, Woods reportedly has moved on to a Bridgestone ball along with some club changes. On the other hand, Woods will probably take this event more seriously than anyone else in the field and has been practicing extensively to make a good showing. He knows the golf world will be watching.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Jordan Spieth - $10,300 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 13-2)

Spieth finished fourth last year -- and that was while exhausting himself in a worldwide cash grab. His one start since the Ryder Cup was two weeks ago, when he won the Australian Open in a so-so field. He's the No. 2 price on the DraftKings board, and we like him a lot more than Dustin Johnson, who is nearly $1,000 more at $11,200 and 9-2 at golfodds.com.

Hideki Matsuyama - $9,900 (13-2)

Matsuyama has been as active as anyone in the field. He's won three times already this fall, including a runaway at the WGC-HSBC Champions in China that lifted him to a career-high No. 6 in the OWGR. Matsuyama was also runner-up at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia. He tied for last here last year, a whopping 21 strokes behind Watson.

Henrik Stenson - $9,400 (10-1)

Stenson has had a busy autumn participating in the European Tour's playoffs, the Race to Dubai. And the Swede captured the season-long title to cap his finest professional year. Stenson hits the ball long, straight and even low with his lethal 3-wood. That's a good combination this week.

Brooks Koepka - $8,900 (10-1)

Koepka is up to a career-best No. 17 in the world, on the heels of a runner-up at the Shriners in Vegas and then a win at the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan (admittedly not the strongest field). Koepka was solo seventh last year, seven strokes behind Watson.

Tier 2 Values

Russell Knox - 7,400 (20-1)

Knox is a new invitee. He was active at the start of the 2016-17 season, with three top-10s in three starts. But he's been off since a solo third at the OHL Classic three weeks back. Still, that's not nearly as idle as others in the field. The Scot is up to a career-best 19th in the OWGR, and usually can be counted on to find fairways and greens.

Louis Oosthuizen - $7,200 (25-1)

Oosthuizen was busy, though not great, in the Euro playoffs. He did not play Albany last year. But the South African was second on the PGA Tour in par-3 scoring average and sixth in par-3 birdie or better last season, and this track does have five par-3s. Oosthuizen also has made a career getting from Point A to Point B -- he was 20th on tour in strokes gained tee to green last season.

Emiliano Grillo - $6,900 (25-1)

Every week, the young Argentine seemingly is in the mix. He's had top-20s his past four starts. Of course, that's a given this week, but Grillo plays well on all different types of setups, without excelling in any one area of the golf game. He is 15th in par-3 BOB this season.

Brandt Snedeker - $6,400 (25-1)

We feel compelled to pick at least one of the bottom-five values in the field, and Snedeker is ahead of only Zach Johnson ($6,300). We all know Snedeker is an elite putter, and there are worse ways to go when data is limited. He has played three times since the Ryder Cup, including the RSM Classic two weeks ago and a win two months ago in a weak field in Fiji.