This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
CAREERBUILDER CHALLENGE
Purse: $5.8M
Winner's Share: $1.044M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Quinta, California
Course: TPC Stadium Course, PGA West
Yardage: 7,113
Par: 72
2016 champion: Jason Dufner
Tournament Preview
As we begin the West Coast Swing, let's state right off the bat that there is less historic information about this tournament available than perhaps any outside of a major being played at a new venue. The Stadium Course is one of three the golfers will play, along with the adjacent Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (par-72, 7,204 yards) and La Quinta Country Club (par-72, 7,060). Golfers will play all three before playing Sunday's round on the Stadium. It was just last year that the tournament added the two PGA West tracks, so you can largely discount any previous data. Instead, current form will be relied upon maybe more than any week all year (more on that in the Champion's Profile below). Of course, this is only the second full-field event in two months, so even current form is a bit of a dart throw.
One thing that has stayed consistent year after year at the old Bob Hope Classic, however, is low scoring. The Tournament Course was the second easiest among the 50 played on Tour last season, La Quinta was third easiest, and the Stadium Course was 10th easiest. Drilling down even further, of the 900 holes in competition last season, we'll see five of the 20 easiest this week, all par-5s at either Tournament or La Quinta. The Tournament Course produced the most birdies (765) and eagles (24) among the three tracks, with a scoring average of 68.9. The Stadium was the "hardest" at 70.8. Keep in mind that the pro-am covers three days, so there is no cut until Saturday. With the first 156-man field of the season, it all adds up to slow play and long rounds -- a combination many golfers want no part of -- and with rain in the forecast for Thursday and especially Friday, there's a chance rounds won't be completed by day's end. It also will be colder than usual in the California desert, with highs in the 60s. Want more bad news? The field is very weak. It is highlighted by the expected season debut of Phil Mickelson, the two-time champion and new tournament "ambassador." We say "expected" because Mickelson underwent two sports hernia surgeries in the offseason and says he will be a "last-minute decision" even though he is in the field. The event also features former champions Patrick Reed (2014), Bill Haas (2015) and Jason Dufner (2016), who each chose a different statistical path to victory.
Key Stats to Winning at the CareerBuilder
• Current form
• Greens in regulation
• Proximity to the hole
• One-putt percentage (putts per GIR)
Past Champions
2016 - Jason Dufner
2015 - Bill Haas
2014 - Patrick Reed
2013 - Brian Gay
2012 - Mark Wilson
2011 - Jhonattan Vegas
2010 - Bill Haas
2009 - Pat Perez
2008 - D.J. Trahan
2007 - Charley Hoffman
Champion's Profile
Judging "current form" is a bit of a cop-out when it comes to analysis, but with minimal course data to rely upon, it is the best option this week. Last year, it was a marvel Jason Dufner won and David Lingmerth didn't. Dufner was 14th in strokes gained putting, T15 in greens in regulation, T18 in proximity and T40 in scrambling. He won a playoff over Lingmerth, who was first in proximity, T3 in GIR, sixth in SGP and 11th in scrambling. How did Lingmerth not only fail to win, but run away in regulation? Looking back at Bill Haas -- a two-time winner -- and Patrick Reed, the 2014 champ, it doesn't serve much purpose other than to show they took different paths to victory. Haas was fourth in strokes gained: putting while Reed was outside the top 10, so this largely becomes a dart throw. What's important in darts? Hitting the target (GIR) and getting it close to the bull's-eye (proximity). There's not an actual correlation with putting in darts, but we will rank putting right behind GIR and proximity in terms of importance this week.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Bill Haas - $10,500 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 20-1)
Haas does not come cheap, but he is not as expensive as Patrick Reed or Phil Mickelson. For a second straight week, the top values don't impress, and thus we will focus more on Tier 2 and 3. Still, Haas obviously likes playing in the California desert, having excelled on different tracks as a winner in both 2010 and 2015. He played well last week at the Sony Open before a Sunday fade, and is solid in most facets of the game. Haas likely will be a popular selection, not only in DraftKings contests but in one-and-done formats.
Francesco Molinari - $10,300 (25-1)
Molinari quietly is up to No. 33 in the world after dropping into the mid-80s last year. He is a GIR machine and a good putter. He's back for a third successive visit to La Quinta, so he obviously likes the place, despite a T62-finish last year. In 2015, Molinari tied for 10th. We're not keen on the top-priced golfers when the tournament variables are so unpredictable, so this is it for us in the $10,000-plus range.
Jon Rahm - $9,700 (25-1)
Rahm is familiar with desert golf, having attended Arizona State. He also possesses strong tee-to-green play, ranking seventh on the young season in strokes gained: tee to green. He's also ninth in birdie average. All that said, at nearly $10K, this is not a strong endorsement for Rahm.
Tier 2 Values
Jamie Lovemark - $9,600 (30-1)
The Southern California native is coming off a T4 at the Sony Open and was T6 last year with the same course lineup he will play this year. Lovemark is a respectable 49th in GIR and third in total putting.
Brendan Steele - $9,300 (30-1)
Steele interestingly was one of the few golfers to play the Tournament of Champions, in which he finished sixth, but not the Sony Open. We saw some tired golfers on Sunday at Waialae, but we expect the SoCal native to be fresh and familiar with these courses. Steele was 34th last year and runner-up the year before. He is also 20th in GIR this season.
Kevin Na - $8,800 (40-1)
Na probably won't even the notice the slow play this week (zing!). Seriously, while some golfers will be thrown off by outside distractions (amateurs, weather), Na might not be. He tied for third in this tournament last year and finished 36th last week at Waialae. Na has so-so numbers in the key stats this week, so this is a lukewarm backing.
Luke List - $8,600 (40-1)
We're big fans of List, and he didn't disappoint last week with a T13 at the Sony Open, his fifth top-25 already this season. He also tied for sixth last year on these same three courses.
Webb Simpson - $8,200 (50-1)
Simpson is known as a lousy putter, but he somehow tied for 13th last week at the wide-open Sony Open, and was 17th at last year's birdie-fest here. There's a lot to be said for his strong tee-to-green game, which is traditionally among the best in the sport.
Tier 3 Values
Kevin Streelman - $8,100 (50-1)
Streelman has not played since November, so we'll go back to his 2015-16 stats to find a golfer who was 17th in GIR on the year. Despite not owning strong putting stats, he has been known to get on some big-time rolls. Streelman was T11 last year here.
Hudson Swafford - $7,900 (50-1)
When in doubt, go with consistency. Swafford has made 18 straight cuts on all sorts of courses, including last week at Waialae. Finding six guys who will still be standing on Sunday will be no small task. Swafford was 56th here a year ago.
Lucas Glover - $7,700 (50-1)
If you want someone to get on the green when you need it most, you can't do much better than Glover. He hasn't played in 2017 yet, but he is ninth in GIR this season and was first on tour last year.
Adam Hadwin - $7,500 (60-1)
Who better to withstand the sub-optimal weather than a Canadian? He's a good putter with decent GIR numbers and tied for sixth here last year. Hadwin has been idle since the fall, but he gets his 2017 campaign underway this week.
David Lingmerth - $7,300 (50-1)
We're still amazed that Lingmerth didn't win last year. Lingmerth was also runner-up in 2013, and posted another top-25 in between, so he clearly knows what it takes to finish near the top of the standings even though he has not notched a victory. He wasn't great last week at the Sony Open, but he did play the weekend.
Long-Shot Values
Stewart Cink - $7,200 (Field, 5-2)
Cink tied for 36th last week, and that followed three straight top-15s to end the fall season. That strong play has landed him 13th in GIR this season, which is quite a turnaround for a veteran who missed a lot of time last year after his wife was stricken with cancer (she is reportedly doing well now). Cink missed the cut at the CareerBuilder last year.
Henrik Norlander - $6,800 (Field, 5-2)
The Swede was a late entry after the withdrawal of Andrew Johnston, so he might not be on everybody's radar. Norlander has played only twice in 2016-17, but he's T11 in GIR. He is trying to secure his card as a non-member, and with a playoff loss at the RSM Classic and a T20 last week, he is well on his way. Norlander missed the cut here last year though.
Nick Watney - $6,500 (125-1)
This is a bargain price, and surely because Watney missed much of last year with a back injury. He is trying to regain his Tour card while playing on a medical extension, and returned with a T35 at the season-opening Safeway Open before missing the cut at the Shriners event. Watney missed the cut here last year, but this seems like a better place than anywhere for a long-shot play.
