This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
SHRINERS HOSPITAL FOR CHILDREN OPEN
Purse: $6.8M
Winner's Share: $1.224M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Las Vegas
Course: TPC Summerlin
Yardage: 7,255
Par: 71
2016 champion: Rod Pampling
Tournament Preview
When we think of Las Vegas, we think of gambling. And the gamblers -- at least the successful gamblers -- will be front and center this week. TPC Summerlin is hosting this event for the 10th straight year, and it annually produces among the most birdies on the PGA Tour. Last year, there were 1,820 birdies, third most on Tour, along with 61 eagles, second most on Tour. And when you consider that the field is 144 as opposed to a standard 156, and that there are only three par-5s on this par-71 track, a case could be made that this is the biggest birdie-fest on the entire golf calendar. The winning score almost always is at least 20-under, and in recent years has gone as high as 24-under. On the difficulty rankings, Summerlin was 40th out of the 50 courses in play last season.
As the tournament winds down, there's plenty of opportunity for drama. No. 15 is a drivable 341 yards. No. 16 is a 560-yard par-5 that's reachable by the entire field. It produced more than 30 eagles last season and was among the easiest holes on the entire PGA Tour. And then there's water on the par-3 17th and par-4 18th.
The field is weak even for the Shriners: No. 24 OWGR and UNLV alum Charley Hoffman is top-ranked, followed by No. 30 Kevin Chappell, No. 37 and 2013 champ Webb Simpson, No. 41 Tony Finau and No. 50 Gary Woodland. Oh, and we'll throw in Ryan Moore at No. 51 just because he's another Vegas guy and was the 2012 winner. Finau is one of four golfers making the trek from last week's WGC-HSBC Champions in China, along with Patrick Cantlay and two rookies, Marty Dou and Xinjun Zhang.
Weather-wise, we're looking at temperatures in the 70s all four days with almost no chance of rain, though the wind should be kicking up more than in recent years, and that could certainly affect scoring, especially with all the water on this course.
Finally, a fact that maybe nobody else cares about but us: Tiger Woods earned his first PGA tournament victory at the then-named Las Vegas International back in 1996, when he shot 27-under over 90 holes and still needed a playoff to defeat a still-young-at-the-time Davis Love III. Woods won a second tournament two weeks later and then a bit more as his career moved forward. #Sarcasm.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Summerlin (in order of importance)
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained approach
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Birdie or better percentage (BOB)
• Driving accuracy
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
Past Champions
2016 - Rod Pampling
2015 - Smylie Kaufman
2014 - Ben Martin
2013 - Webb Simpson
2012 - Ryan Moore
2011 - Kevin Na
2010 - Jonathan Byrd
2009 - Martin Laird
2008 - Marc Turnesa
2007 - George McNeill
Champion's Profile:
TPC Summerlin was the seventh-hardest course last season for hitting fairways -- just under 54 percent. Rod Pampling won with a T15 in driving accuracy, and he is not a long hitter. A look back at the winners since 2010 shows all but one of them were top-18 in driving accuracy, all but one of them were top-12 in greens in regulation (somehow 2011 champ Kevin Na was 40th) and all but one of them were top-10 in putting (Pampling was 17th in one of the great outlier victories in years on Tour). While GIR is essential to making birdies, and golfers will need a lot of them to contend, scrambling is also important at Summerlin. For those missing the green on their approach, it's imperative to get close enough to one-putt for par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Tony Finau - $11,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 15-1)
Finau has been putting much better of late, and this field is not exactly loaded with the top putters on Tour. With limited data in the young season, Finau is 20th in strokes gained putting and 26th in putting average. He had a couple of good showings in his first two visits to Summerlin, T7 and T16, while faltering to T41 last year. Finau is coming off two weeks in Asia, including T11 last week at the WGC-HSBC. It often concerns us when global travel shortens a week, but not enough to bypass the top guy on the DraftKings board.
Webb Simpson - $11,000 (20-1)
The 2013 champion -- before the anchored putting ban kicked in -- has also improved his putting. He was even in the top-100 in strokes gained putting last season. Simpson has only one start this season, a T17 at the Safeway, but going back to the Wyndham in late August he has top-20s in five of his six events.
Patrick Cantlay - $9,700 (20-1)
The only thing that concerns us with Cantlay this week is a long flight from China and playing on consecutive weeks. On the other hand, he went through four straight weeks of tournaments during the playoffs and his back came away unscathed, so it's hard to see a scenario in which Cantlay doesn't play well. He was top-20 in all four of those playoff events.
Ryan Moore - $9,400 (25-1)
Moore is another Las Vegas guy who plays this tournament almost every year, winning it in 2012. He certainly didn't have his best season in 2016-17, but still managed a T15 at Summerlin. Moore has only one start this season, a T17 at the Safeway.
Tier 2 Values
Byeong-Hun An- $9,100 (30-1)
An racked up 24 birdies in his first and only PGA start of the season, a T11 at the CJ Cup two weeks ago. And that couldn't have been easy during a pressure-filled week in his native South Korea. The week before, the former European Tour Rookie of the Year notched a T21 at the Italian Open. This is his first visit to Vegas.
Bubba Watson - $8,900 (40-1)
Watson has seen his world ranking tumble from 10th at the start of the year to 63rd now. By any measure, he has had a horrible year for such an accomplished golfer. But Watson showed some glimmers toward the end of last season, with a T17 at the WGC-Bridgestone and a T10 at The Northern Trust before his season ended at the next playoff event. Watson is back in Vegas for the first time since a T14 in 2007, and he brings with him plenty of upside for the price.
Jamie Lovemark - $8,700 (40-1)
Lovemark has been among the busier golfers in the young season, already teeing it up three times. His best cash was his most recent start, a T5 at the CJ Cup two weeks ago. Lovemark missed the Vegas cut last year, but he was T13 the year before.
Martin Laird - $8,600 (40-1)
Laird is an annual visitor to Vegas, missing the event only once since 2008 and missing the cut only once during that time. Laird won at Summerlin in 2009 and was runner-up the next year. He was T27 last year and opened this season with a T17 at the Safeway.
Tier 3 Values
Kevin Streelman - $8,400 (60-1)
Streelman is one of the straighter hitters around, and he's opened 2017-18 with a pair of strong showings: T13 at the Safeway and T10 at the Sanderson Farms. Before last year's T61 at Summerlin, Streelman had five consecutive top-25s there, including a runner-up to Ben Martin in 2014.
Luke List - $8,300 (30-1)
List was a fall-season darling last year and he appears to be so again this year. Already having made three starts, List tied for 13th at the CIMB and then for fifth at the CJ Cup. He was T15 last year in his maiden visit to Summerlin. One of the long hitters on Tour, List is 56th in driving accuracy, and that's a great combination.
Nick Taylor - $7,600 (80-1)
Three starts so far for Taylor in 2017-18 and all three were top-25s. Taylor has played Summerlin the past three years and never missed a cut, albeit with just one top-25. With limited data, he's 15th in strokes gained around the green this season and 14th in strokes gained putting.
Scott Piercy - $7,400 (50-1)
Piercy has missed the cut only once in his last eight trips to his hometown, with three top-10s and six top-25s. His 2016-17 season ended in June -- there was never a reason given why -- but he opened this season with a T17 at the Safeway, followed by a T63 at the CIMB. As we see from time to time, Piercy's odds don't jibe with his very low DK price. Most of the time, we'll jump on that.
Long-Shot Values
Hunter Mahan - $7,000 (100-1)
Mahan took a big gamble not using a career-earnings exemption to keep full playing privileges. But so far it's been paying off as he has a T13 at the Safeway and a T18 last week at the Sanderson Farms. And most facets of his game have looked good in the early part of 2017-18. Mahan is top-50 in driving distance, 23rd in GIR and 16th in strokes gained putting. He's been going against weak fields, but that's the case this week, too.
James Hahn - $7,000 (80-1)
Hahn is a well-kept secret in golf. He's No. 70 in the OWGR -- better than Kevin Na, Byeong-Hun An, Martin Kaymer and Jamie Lovemark to name a few. Hahn doesn't have a whole lot to show for his first two starts of the season -- outside the top-25 in two Asia events -- but he was T15 in Vegas last year, one of his eight top-25s on the season.
Brandon Hagy - $6,900 (100-1)
Hagy was underpriced last week, when he tied for 18th in Mississippi, and he's even cheaper this week. If you can finish top-20 when hitting only 24 fairways all week, that means two things: you are doing lots of other stuff well and driving accuracy didn't matter much at the Sanderson Farms. Hagy averaged over 305 yards on his drives and gained almost a stroke on the field in putting.
Aaron Wise - $6,900 (80-1)
Wise is still only 21, and with just 10 career PGA Tour starts. One of them was last week's top-25 at the Sanderson. Another was his personal best -- T10 last year at Summerlin.
