DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

The West Coast Swing is over, the Florida Swing begins and with it comes the run-up to the Masters, only six weeks away. PGA National is a beast, among the five toughest courses three of the past four years -- and that includes majors. The winning score has been in the single digits eight of the 10 years the Honda has been played there. The headline grabber of course is the famed Bear Trap, a treacherous stretch from Nos. 15 to 17 with two par-3s sandwiching a par-4. (Florida courses like to give themselves scary animal nicknames -- in two weeks at the Valspar Championship, it's the Snake Pit!)
But for all the attention given to the Bear Trap, other parts of PGA National are even tougher. In fact, three other back-nine holes are even harder, each among the 20th toughest on Tour last season, out of 900. The 465-yard 14th was No. 4 on the list, the 450-yard 11th was No. 12 and the 508-yard 10th was No. 20. Starting on No. 1 would seem a real advantage, at least on the nerves.

So what makes PGA National so tough? Well, there's water on 16 holes, 100-plus bunkers everywhere you look and, near the Atlantic, potentially ferocious wind. This week is all about survival, and the most patient golfers content to stay out of trouble and pick their spots stand the best chance of victory. We'll expand on that in the Key Stats and Champions Profile below.

While the field will not nearly approach the strength we saw last week at Riviera, 12 of the OWGR top-25 are on hand. Plus there's an influx of Europeans in advance of next week's WGC-Mexico: Masters champion Danny Willett and fellow Ryder Cuppers Matthew Fitzpatrick, Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Martin Kaymer, along with rising Englishman Tyrrell Hatton. The four favorites on the DraftKings board, however, are defending champion Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and last year's runner-up, Sergio Garcia. Seven of the 10 champions at PGA National were born outside of the United States, and no big-name American has ever won there. With a relatively short track and wind omnipresent, it surely brings to mind courses European Tour members are accustomed to.

The forecast calls for showers Wednesday, potentially softening the course, with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s come Saturday. The wind isn't forecast to be too intense, but give it 10 minutes in Florida and that could change.

Key Stats to Winning at PGA National

• Driving accuracy
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Bogey avoidance

Past Champions

2016 - Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
2010 – Camilo Villegas
2009 – Y.E. Yang
2008 – Ernie Els
2007 – Mark Wilson

Champion's Profile

The first word that comes to mind is temperament. No hotheads, no glory-seekers needed here. Boring golf more times than not will pay off at PGA National, hence "bogey avoidance" in the key stats. You know who's No. 1 on Tour in bogey avoidance? Rickie Fowler. Last year, Adam Scott bogeyed only seven holes all week (albeit one of them was a quadruple) and runner-up Sergio Garcia had only eight. Eight of the top-10 finishers in 2016 were among the leaders in driving accuracy but none was among the top-10 in strokes gained putting. However, we've seen different paths to victory depending on course conditions, most notably the wind. PGA National greens are historically among the hardest to hit, so not only are strong GIR skills beneficial, but invariably a golfer's scrambling acumen will be tested. Of the past six winners, five have been top-10 in scrambling on the week. The past two years, almost all the top finishers were among the scrambling leaders. But go back three years, and scrambling was not such a factor. This is a very tough week to shoehorn the type of golfer who will be the champion. There are multiple ways to succeed. Many golfers are rejoicing the return to Florida and with it Bermuda greens.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Adam Scott - $12,200 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1)

Scott is the defending champion, and he also tied for 12th in 2014. Important: He did not shoot over par in any of those eight rounds. Scott has played only once in 2017 -- a T11 at Riviera last week -- so we look back to last year to see he was 21st on Tour in bogey avoidance.

Rickie Fowler - $11,900 (20-1)

As mentioned, Fowler leads the Tour in bogey avoidance, something we might not expect from one of the supposed flashier golfers around. Fowler has made five straight cuts at PGA National, with a T6 last year and a T7 in 2012. He's first on Tour in scrambling and 14th in GIR. Things surely seem to line up this week for Fowler, whose last outing was a T4 at Phoenix.

Justin Thomas - $11,800 (20-1)

Thomas has returned to earth following his Hawaiian Double, and that's only natural. He's fifth in putting average, 17th in GIR, 22nd in scrambling. But he's 166th in accuracy off the tee. He needs to take his foot off the pedal, and we saw him do that last year at the Honda, when he tied for third. Still, this is endorsement is not as strong as for Scott/Fowler.

Sergio Garcia - $10,900 (15-1)

This is a big number for someone who comes to play one week, has his mind elsewhere the next. The good news is, Garcia seemed to have his mind elsewhere last week at Riviera. He doesn't like the rain, so we'll give him a bit of a pass. Before that, Garcia had five straight top-20s worldwide. He remains one of the more accurate golfers tee to green. The Spaniard was runner-up last year, T8 in 2014.

Tier 2 Values

Russell Knox - $9,000 (30-1)

There's not a whole like we like in this price range. But we do like Knox, who shines on shorter, accuracy-first golf courses. He usually plays thing safe: 10th on Tour in bogey avoidance, 10th in driving accuracy, sixth in GIR. Knox was T26 at the Honda last year, following back-to-back top-3s.

Paul Casey - $8,700 (25-1)

Casey slipped to 43rd here last year, but tied Knox for third two years ago and was T12 the year before. He's 13th in bogey avoidance, sixth in scrambling. Not the best form coming in, however.

Brendan Steele - $8,100 (40-1)

Yes, Steele makes the list again. He's a perfect 6-for-6 in cuts at PGA National with top-15s the past two years. Overall, Steele is riding 12 straight cashes. He's third in scrambling, sixth in bogey avoidance, 19th in GIR.

Matthew Fitzpatrick - $8,000 (40-1)

Let's be clear: This pick is a reach, a gamble. That said, the young Englishman is 29th in the world and one of the rising stars in golf. He missed the Honda cut last year, so the course is familiar. Fitzpatrick is 19th on the European Tour in GIR and is coming off a T5 in Dubai, where he was paired with Tiger Woods for one round. He has has shown level-headedness for 23 years old; the thing is, he has to be level-headed for daunting PGA National.

Tier 3 Values

Charles Howell III - $7,800 (40-1)

This is pretty remarkable: Howell is fourth in bogey avoidance, 10th in scrambling and 12th in GIR. Further, he's already notched seven top-25s this season with three top-10s. Before missing the Honda cut last year, Howell had six straight cashes there.

Jason Dufner - $7,500 (50-1)

When we think "boring," we think Dufner. He's never missed a cut in seven starts at PGA National, albeit last year's T61 was his worst showing. Dufner is well rested, idle since a T25 at the CareerBuilder. He's second on Tour in driving accuracy, 14th in GIR, T27 in bogey avoidance and 38th in scrambling.

William McGirt - $7,400 (80-1)

McGirt is third on Tour in GIR, eighth in driving accuracy and 40th in bogey avoidance. He was T8 last year at PGA National and T22 the year before. McGirt has made five of his last six cuts overall going back to November, with a recent T24 at Phoenix.

Graeme McDowell - $7,300 (60-1)

McDowell was T5 at the Honda last year, with three more top-10s in succession from 2011-13. He's not long off the tee but traditionally among the most accurate. Last year at PGA National, McDowell was T2 in accuracy and first in scrambling.

Long-Shot Values

Kyle Stanley - $7,100 (Field, 9-4)

Stanley has made his last five cuts this season, and was T43 at the 2016 Honda. He's seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green, eighth in GIR, 24th in bogey avoidance and 34th in scrambling.

Stewart Cink - $7,100 (Field, 9-4)

Cink quietly is one of the better stories on Tour this season, making 7-of-9 cuts. He's 6-for-6 all-time at PGA National, and his T26 last year was his best ever. Cink is only 171st in accuracy off tee, but he's savvy enough to tone it down when necessary. The 43-year-old is 19th in strokes gained total and 22nd in GIR.

Martin Flores - $7,100 (Field, 9-4)

Flores skipped last year's Honda but was top-20 in the two previous editions. This season, he's seventh on Tour in GIR and 14th in bogey avoidance. Flores has made 6-of-8 cuts this season, with two top-25s, including his last time out at Pebble Beach.

John Huh - $6,800 (Field, 9-4)

Huh has notched top-20s the past two years at the Honda, and this season he's 23rd on Tour in scrambling. He's also 33rd in bogey avoidance. Huh finished the West Coast Swing by making three straight cuts.

John Peterson - $6,500 (Field, 9-4)

Peterson appears to be healthy again, with a T12 in Phoenix earlier this month. He missed the Honda last year but was T31 the year before. Peterson is fourth on Tour in scrambling, 28th in GIR and 30th in bogey avoidance.