DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: WGC-HSBC Champions

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

A world-class field will gather in China for the first WGC event of the season. Or the last WGC event of the season. It depends on your vantage point. While this is the third event on the 2016-17 PGA Tour schedule, it's also the European Tour's regular-season finale. The three-event Race to Dubai begins next week. It's odd that the last chance to reach the playoffs excludes so many golfers, but that's the case with this limited 78-man, no-cut field that features 16 of the top 20 golfers in the world. Rory McIlroy, 2013 champ Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson are the headliners, while Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Phil Mickelson constitute the high-ranking quartet not on hand. The tournament was added to the WGC rotation in 2009 and to the PGA Tour schedule in 2013, and it has been held at Sheshan six of the last seven years (not 2012). Sheshan has been among the easiest tracks on the PGA calendar, ranking 43rd easiest of the 50 courses in play last year. But there could be a snag this year. Thanks to the hottest summer there in 130 years, some of the greens were in bad condition, according to a memo sent from the PGA Tour to the golfers and obtained by GolfChannel.com. It said the tour was confident of delivering tournament quality surfaces for the start of the championship, but then why even send word? Sub-par greens could go a long way in neutralizing the top putters. That said, the dry season is over, and it has been raining heavily for the last week and rain is in the forecast in the early part of the tournament, especially Thursday. The rough could be denser and wetter, putting more of a premium on driving accuracy than normal.

Key Stats to Winning at Sheshan International

• Ball striking
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• One-putt percentage (putts per GIR)

Past Champions

2015 - Russell Knox
2014 - Bubba Watson
2013 - Dustin Johnson
2012 - Ian Poulter (Mission Hills Golf Club, Shenzhen)
2011 - Martin Kaymer
2010 - Francesco Molinari
2009 - Phil Mickelson

Champion's Profile

The course features two 590-yard-plus holes, five par-4s in excess of 450 yards and no par-3 shorter than 200 yards. So it's a bomber's paradise, right? Dustin Johnson winning in 2013 and Bubba Watson in 2014 certainly fuel that narrative. But last year, short hitter Russell Knox won the title with laser-like efficiency, hitting an incredible 61 of 72 greens in regulation (and that was good only for T4 in GIR, illustrating the ease of the course). Johnson also hit 61 in his victory. Knox won at 20-under and Johnson at 24-under, but Watson's winning total was only 11-under, so 2013 numbers appear to be a statistical outlier. Excluding Watson's year and Ian Poulter's winning year at another course, the winner has been top-6 in putts per GIR and among the leaders in GIR and/or scrambling every year since Francesco Molinari came out on top in 2010. Methodical GIR and decent enough putting have been the winning combination here.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Rory McIlroy - $12,100 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 5-1)

McIlroy turns his attention from winning the FedEx Cup to trying to win the Race to Dubai. His tee-to-green game is unparalleled, his putting surely has improved and he's finished 4-5-6-11 in four career starts in the HSBC. He's within range of overtaking Johnson for No. 2 in the world.

Dustin Johnson - $11,900 (11-2)

Johnson won in his Sheshan debut, skipped the tournament in 2014 and finished fifth last year. He's in the mix almost every time he tees it up and has the added incentive of trying to hold on to his No. 2 ranking. If anything gives us pause about McIlroy and Johnson, it's their price tag.

Hideki Matsuyama - $10,000 (20-1)

This is a course where Matsuyama does not have a strong history, but not because of poor play -- he has two WDs in three career starts. He's coming off a runner-up last week in Malaysia and a win the week before in Japan. Matsuyama has top-5s in five of his past eight worldwide starts.

Paul Casey - $9,600 (20-1)

Casey is much more to our liking when he's not the most expensive guy on the board. He's still the No. 5 on DraftKings, but that's okay, given his course history of six career top-10s. Casey faded last week to a T21 showing in Malaysia, but the pressure to continue top-5 showings was strong. Now, he's free to start anew.

Tier 2 Values

Martin Kaymer - $8,700 (30-1)

When most of us last saw Kaymer, he was stinking up the joint in the Ryder Cup. But his recent play otherwise features three sixth-place cashes in his last four starts, plus he has three career top-10s at Sheshan, including a win in 2011.

Brooks Koepka - $8,500 (30-1)

Koepka is a bit of a dart throw, as he's never played this tournament and hasn't played a stroke-play event since the BMW Championship in early September. But he had a standout debut in the Ryder Cup, showcasing one of the world's top all-around games.

Thomas Pieters - $8,100 (50-1)

Like Koepka, Pieters was a breakout star at the Ryder Cup. He was 23rd last year in his first outing at Sheshan, a course that suits his big-hitting and precision game.

Alexander Noren - $8,000 (50-1)

Noren has a 49th and 54th on his Sheshan ledger, but he's a different golfer this year, with three wins, including two weeks ago at the British Masters that has zoomed him to No. 18 in the OWGR. Let's see what he can do now alongside the big boys. At only $8,000, he has a very favorable price.

Tier 3 Values

Emiliano Grillo - $7,800 (50-1)

Top 20 in driving accuracy last season and top 30 in GIR, Grillo meticulously works his way around a golf course. He finished 35th in his HSBC debut last year, but he's come a long way since, winning PGA Rookie of the Year. And he's started this season in form, with a T26 at the Safeway and a T17 last week at the CIMB.

Bernd Wiesberger - $7,700 (50-1)

Wiesberger has finished top-7 in his last four outings, including two runner-ups, one of them to Noren two weeks ago. He was T17 last year in his maiden trip to Sheshan.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello - $7,600 (50-1)

Cabrera-Bello has not played Sheshan before, and that may explain his eye-catching price. But he was T10 last week in Malaysia and outstanding in the Ryder Cup.

Louis Oosthuizen - $7,400 (50-1)

Perhaps the South African is so cheap because he doesn't have much to show for the last two months -- he's mostly been idle. Before T44 in the HSBC last year, he turned in six top-16 efforts in the tournament. And when he's on, Oosthuizen's tee-to-green game is among the world's best.

Long-Shot Values

Scott Hend - $7,100 (80-1)

Hend, an Aussie who plays his best golf in Asia, overcame a horrible start to rally for a T7 last week in Malaysia. He was 19th at Sheshan last year and 21st two years before that.

Matthew Fitzpatrick - $7,100 (80-1)

Young Fitzpatrick seemed out of his element at Hazeltine, but being a Ryder Cup rookie on foreign soil would be difficult even for a veteran. The Englishman is a far more accomplished golfer than he showed there and with no such hesitation against top-tier talent -- such as his T7 earlier this year at the Masters. He was also T7 last year in the HSBC.

Shane Lowry - $6,700 (100-1)

Lowry was 68th last year and 34th the year before, so nothing great there. But if he brings his normally sound tee-to-green game, that $6,700 price tag will be a steal.

Jhonattan Vegas - $6,600 (125-1)

Vegas has played this course only once before, tying for 10th back in 2011. Five years ago can be a long time. But there are slim pickings at the bottom of the DraftKings board, and we've chosen to throw our dart at someone who finished 10th on tour in GIR last season.