This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Northern Trust
Course: TPC Boston (7,216 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,500,000
Winner: $1,710,000 and 1,500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The PGA Tour makes a return to Boston this week after not playing there for the first time since 2002 last season. With the condensed schedule starting in 2019, the Tour decided to eliminate the Dell Technologies Championship held annually as the second playoff event at TPC Boston, cutting the total number of playoff events down from four to three. Now THE NORTHERN TRUST will alternate between a course in the New York area and TPC Boston going forward. The top-125 players in the FedExCup will do battle this week with points weighted three times more than a regular PGA Tour event. After the action in Boston, the top-70 players in the FedExCup standings will qualify for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields. Bryson DeChambeau was the last winner at TPC Boston back in 2018 when he won the first two legs of the playoffs. Tiger Woods will be in the field this week looking to make a move up from 49th in the FedExCup standings. Woods along with Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, and Webb Simpson will all be looking to add their second win at TPC Boston, while Rory McIlroy, the course's All-time earnings leader, will be looking to add his third title. Rain is unlikely to impact the event this week, so we should see a firmer course. Temperatures will peak in the upper 80's with wind being more of a factor on the weekend than the opening two rounds.
Recent Champions
2019 – Patrick Reed (Liberty National)
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau (Ridgewood)
2017 – Dustin Johnson (Glen Oaks)
2016 – Patrick Reed (Bethpage Black)
2015 – Jason Day (Plainfield)
2014 – Hunter Mahan (Ridgewood)
2013 – Adam Scott (Liberty National)
2012 – Nick Watney (Bethpage Black)
2011 – Dustin Johnson (Plainfield)
2010 – Matt Kuchar (Ridgewood)
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
GIR Percentage
Scrambling
SG: Off-the-Tee
Champion's Profile
With greens on the smaller end and some tricky areas around the putting surfaces, approach play should take precedent this week. The champion will be among the leaders in GIR's and will be giving himself a high volume of good scoring chances. Not a single winner in TPC Boston's history on the PGA Tour has finished worse than 14-under-par, so expect to see another shootout this week, but likely not to the degree we saw at Greensboro. With as many as three drivable par-4's along with three potentially reachable par-5's, length will certainly be a weapon, but you can get yourself in trouble pretty quickly with some careless lashes. Both SG: Off-the-tee and scrambling should be important stats this week to stay in contention.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Bryson DeChambeau ($12,000)
DeChambeau is first in salary this week, but he's also first in SG: Off-the-tee, SG: Total, birdie average, and scoring average this season. He also won the last time the Tour played TPC Boston back in 2018. That combination of length and putting this season is deadly and should play at TPC Boston. If DeChambeau hits his wedges well the only question this week will be how many he wins by.
Jason Day ($11,300)
Not many have been better the last month or so than the Aussie. Day struggled coming back from the COVID-19 break initially, but over the last six tournaments nobody has a higher SG: Total per round, tallying off finishes of T7-T4-T6-T4. He has also had tremendous success at TPC Boston, notching six top-15 finishes in his last nine starts.
Daniel Berger ($10,800)
If you had Daniel Berger being the fourth-best player on the PGA Tour this season by SG: Total, well your bank account is probably looking quite handsome. With 12 golfers above him in price this week, this is an easy play for me. Berger has absolutely no weaknesses, ranking top-25 in SG: Off-the-tee, SG: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Tee-to-green, and scrambling. He's also finished T13-or-better in seven of his last eight starts.
Tony Finau ($10,700)
I've been riding with Finau a lot recently, and there is no reason to stop now. Great value here again relative to the field. The Utah native has finished top-eight in three of his last four starts, including the PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Finau ranks top-32 this season in SG: Off-the-tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around, and SG: Tee-to-green. He is also a better putter than he gets credit for, especially recently. Finau carded four rounds in the 60's to finish T4 the last time the Tour went to TPC Boston.
Longer Shots with Value
Matthew Wolff ($9,600)
Wolff has gone from extremely inconsistent early this season to one of the most consistent players on Tour entering the playoffs. He is coming off a T4 at the PGA Championship where he had the best ball striking performance of his career and possibly the worst putting performance of his career. With his firepower at TPC Boston, just an average week short game week and he is going to be right there with a chance to win.
Doc Redman ($8,900)
I hopped on the Redman train last week and it paid off in the form of a T3 finish. There is still plenty of value here in this field, as Redman's ball striking is as good as it gets right now. On the season the Clemson product ranks 22nd in SG: Off-the-tee, SG: Approach, 11th in FIR percentage, and 10th in GIR percentage, but last week he topped the field in SG: Off-the-tee, SG: Tee-to-green, and FIR's. There's too much to like here.
Russell Henley ($8,900)
Early in his career Henley was known for his putter, but now his ball striking has entered the elite category on Tour. He ranks third in both SG: Approach and GIR percentage on the season, and he is second to only Justin Thomas in SG: Tee-to-green since the PGA Tour restart. If that putter heats up at all, Henley will have a great week. The former Georgia Bulldog finished second here back in 2014.
Joel Dahmen ($8,600)
Throw out two bad weeks at Muirfield Village and Dahmen has seven top-20's in his last eight starts. He rounded that out with a T10 a couple weeks ago at the PGA Championship. Dahmen is pretty solid through the bag, ranking 26th in SG: Off-the-tee, fifth in proximity, and 21st in putts per round. Last time out at Harding Park he ranked sixth in SG: Putting, T3 in FIR's, and T12 in scrambling.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
I went heavy on the ball strikers this week because I think there are a lot of really good ones you can get for very generous prices. The fairways are really pretty wide this week, but the penalty for missing them can be harsh which is why a lot of players on this list rank high in SG: Off-the-tee. I think course history is helpful, but I'm weighing current form a lot higher on the list. Which is why I hate to say it, but I'm fading Rory McIlroy with five finishes outside the top-30 in his last six starts on the PGA Tour. Patrick Cantlay has struggled his last few starts as well, and there are two guys right below him in Berger and Finau that I like way more this week. You also should probably stay away from Tiger Woods with what he has shown us in his two starts since the resumption of play. There's simply no value at $10,500. Other players under $10,000 I came very close to including on this list were Billy Horschel, Harris English, Ryan Palmer, and Adam Hadwin.
