This article is part of our FantasyDraft PGA series.
AT&T Byron Nelson
Irving, TX
TPC Four Seasons Resort - Las Colinas - Par 70, 7,166 yards
Field - 156 Entrants
Winner's Share - $1.31 million
The Preview
Normally a lackluster pit stop on Tour featuring a below-average field and a course that few pros salivate over, this year's AT&T Byron Nelson includes four of the Official World Golf Ranking's top six players, including Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Sergio Garcia, and Jordan Spieth. Johnson is the betting favorite thanks to his sheer domination in recent months, but Garcia is a two-time winner here and still riding the momentum from his victory at the Masters. Last week at THE PLAYERS Championship we saw a number of dark horses and mediocre golfers near the top of the leaderboard and Si Woo Kim ultimately took home the trophy, but a tough venue combined with iffy weather conditions at the Byron Nelson may call for a signature name to rise up to the challenge and find the winner's circle.
Past Champions
2016 - Sergio Garcia
2015 - Steven Bowditch
2014 - Brendon Todd
2013 - Sang-moon Bae
2012 - Jason Dufner
2011 - Keegan Bradley
2010 - Jason Day
Taming Las Colinas
With rain in the forecast for the Dallas area this week, a premium will be placed on SG: off-the-tee, as long-hitters gain an advantage under wet and/or windy Texas conditions. The top-four SG: off-the-tee performers at this event in 2016 all went on to finish top-20 overall, while reigning champion Sergio Garcia's stellar balanced attack resulted in victory. Par-four scoring will also be essential at Las Colinas, as the par-70 course contains just two par-fives. In order to make birdies on the par-fours, one-putt percentage and SG: putting will ultimately separate the contenders from the coasters.
FantasyDraft Value Picks - based on $100,000 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Dustin Johnson - $20,700
Jordan Spieth - $18,400
Sergio Garcia - $18,100
Brooks Koepka - $17,400
Cash-game Target (50/50s, Double-Ups): With Johnson and Spieth outside of the ultimate comfort zone in terms of affordability when building a cash-game squad, Koepka will be a popular candidate as the highest-priced player in many lineups. He held the lead after three rounds during the 2016 Byron Nelson, but eventually fell to Garcia in a Sunday playoff. Koepka has placed top-20 in five consecutive events and ranks eighth on Tour in driving distance and 14th in strokes gained putting.
GPP Weapon: A final-round 78 at THE PLAYERS will likely force some gamers to shy away from Garcia this week, but why not deploy the fifth-ranked golfer in the world who is playing some of the best golf of his career? He followed up his Green Jacket performance with an ace during the first round at TPC Sawgrass on No. 17, and there's no telling what kind of magic could be in store for the Spaniard this week as he defends his title.
Second-Level Studs
Charley Hoffman - $16,200
Patrick Reed - $16,100
Tony Finau - $16,000
Jason Dufner - $16,000
Brandt Snedeker - $15,800
Cash-game Target: Ranking fourth on Tour in SG: off-the-tee and sixth in SG: tee-to-green, Finau figures to be the chalk in this range given his driving prowess and course history. He finished T12 and T10 in his first two appearances at the Byron Nelson, and shot no worse than a two-under 68 over eight total rounds.
GPP Weapon: A dismal track record at the Byron Nelson combined with a slow start to his 2017 campaign projects to keep Reed's ownership low this week in Irving, presenting an opportunity to strike on his deflated price in tournament formats. He missed three consecutive cuts from the Shell Houston Open through the Valero Texas Open, but has since posted three straight top-25s, including an impressive three-under 69 during the final round Sunday. Short-game drawbacks have limited Reed's production this season, but he ranks inside the top 50 on Tour in two key stats: SG: off-the-tee and SG: putting.
Mid-Tier Glue Guys
Bud Cauley - $15,400
Sung Kang - $14,500
Gary Woodland - $14,400
Keegan Bradley - $13,900
Brian Gay - $13,000
Cash-game Target: Bombers will have an advantage this week, which makes Woodland a viable option to excel after making the cut at this event each of the last seven years. He has gone without a top-35 throughout his last four stroke-play events while dealing with an off-the-course family situation, but posted three top-six finishes over five events earlier in 2017. Woodland is top-40 on Tour in terms of SG: off-the-tee and SG: approach-the-green, reducing the burden of a putter that is average at best.
GPP Weapon:Kang, who put together a stretch of 2-T11-T6 before placing T30 at THE PLAYERS, checks all the boxes for potential success at the TPC Four Seasons Resort. The 30th-ranked player in the FedExCup standings is top-50 on Tour in SG: off-the-tee, SG: tee-to-green, and SG: putting, and below-average wedge play around the greens is essentially his lone fault at this point in the year. Kang finished T34 at the Byron Nelson in 2016, but his recent form is top of the line.
Hidden Gems
Michael Kim - $12,800
Boo Weekley - $12,300
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - $11,600
Inside Scoop: Although he doesn't pose a threat off the tee, Kim ranks 10th in SG: putting and 22nd in par-four scoring average, which will provide an advantage on a course with 12 par-fours. He notched back-to-back top-20s in late March, and also made the cut at THE PLAYERS. Weekley, on the other hand, excels off the tee but struggles to find the bottom of the cup once on the green. The 43-year-old posted a T5 at the Byron Nelson in 2014. Fernandez-Castano finished T16 in his debut at the event in 2015, and has made three consecutive cuts, including a T13 at the Valero Texas Open. Just like Kim, Fernandez-Castano gains a majority of his strokes on the green, ranking fifth on Tour in SG: putting. A 43.27 one-putt percentage keeps the 36-year-old afloat when his ball-striking falters.
