This article is part of our Golf Barometer series.
The 2016-17 PGA Tour season is underway after four tournaments in the past three weeks followed a brief offseason, which as always, seemed to pass in the blink of an eye. While several golfers have already improved their fantasy stock in the early stages of autumn, others are experiencing a downward trend to go along with the frustrations of the game. We will also check in on a number of big-name players who are currently dealing with injuries.
VALUE RISING
Chris Kirk
With three top-10 performances in his past trio of events -- dating back to the BMW Championship in early September -- Kirk is one of the hottest golfers on Tour as the fall series heats up. His Achilles' heel in 2016 has been big stages, as he missed the cut at all four majors and the PLAYERS Championship, so competing against generally weaker fields in his first two events of the 2016-17 season has done wonders in terms of his leaderboard positioning. This figures to remain the case until the top names in golf return to their usual level of activity. Kirk will face stiffer competition at the upcoming Shriners Hospitals for Children Open after a runner-up finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship, but the 68th-ranked player in the world will look to maintain his momentum.
Justin Thomas
A victory at the CIMB Classic earlier in October was an impressive kick start to Thomas' third season on Tour, which has also included an eighth-place finish at the Safeway
The 2016-17 PGA Tour season is underway after four tournaments in the past three weeks followed a brief offseason, which as always, seemed to pass in the blink of an eye. While several golfers have already improved their fantasy stock in the early stages of autumn, others are experiencing a downward trend to go along with the frustrations of the game. We will also check in on a number of big-name players who are currently dealing with injuries.
VALUE RISING
Chris Kirk
With three top-10 performances in his past trio of events -- dating back to the BMW Championship in early September -- Kirk is one of the hottest golfers on Tour as the fall series heats up. His Achilles' heel in 2016 has been big stages, as he missed the cut at all four majors and the PLAYERS Championship, so competing against generally weaker fields in his first two events of the 2016-17 season has done wonders in terms of his leaderboard positioning. This figures to remain the case until the top names in golf return to their usual level of activity. Kirk will face stiffer competition at the upcoming Shriners Hospitals for Children Open after a runner-up finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship, but the 68th-ranked player in the world will look to maintain his momentum.
Justin Thomas
A victory at the CIMB Classic earlier in October was an impressive kick start to Thomas' third season on Tour, which has also included an eighth-place finish at the Safeway Open and a top-25 finish during his most recent start at the WGC-HSBC Champions event in China. The 23-year-old is quickly approaching a top-20 world ranking -- he currently sits at No. 21 -- while onlookers continue to be amused by his captivating power off the tee despite his 5-foot-10, 145-pound frame. As long as putting woes don't hold him back, Thomas should continue his ascension as a rising young gun throughout the season.
Paul Casey
The 39-year-old Englishman hasn't experienced a single week of failure since missing the cut at The Open Championship back in July, securing eight top-25s in nine events on Tour since then. Even more intriguing is the fact that he notched four consecutive top-five finishes dating from the Deutsche Bank Championship in early September through the 2016-17 season-opening Safeway Open in mid-October. The 12th-ranked player in the world is knocking on the door of the coveted Top 10, positioning himself just behind the likes of superstars Rickie Fowler, Danny Willett, and Bubba Watson. At this rate Casey could be in line for his first win on the PGA Tour since the 2009 Shell Houston Open. It remains a bit of a shock that he has not won since then.
Hideki Matsuyama
"Completely dominant" is a sufficient way to describe Matsuyama's most recent performance at the WGC-HSBC Champions event, where he picked up his third career PGA Tour victory, this time by an inspiring seven-stroke margin over runner-ups Henrik Stenson and Daniel Berger. It's also necessary to mention Matsuyama's season debut at the CIMB Classic one week prior, as he finished alone in second place while the aforementioned Thomas took home the crown by three shots. Oh, and by the way, Matsuyama's performance at that event came just days after winning the Japan Open Golf Championship back home. He has become widely regarded as one of the best ball strikers in the world with impeccable iron play, but when he gets the putter rolling like he has lately, it's tough to question his elite status in the slightest. At No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking, Matsuyama sits just one spot behind Jordan Spieth.
Cody Gribble
It would appear we already have ourselves the first rookie sensation of the 2016-17 season, as the former Texas Longhorn grabbed his first career win this past week at the Sanderson Farms Championship by four strokes, coming on the heels of an eighth-place finish in his pro debut two weeks prior at the Safeway Open. Gribble sits second on Tour in strokes gained: total and has found plenty of success with his putter. While the competition remains a bit weaker throughout the fall, the 26-year-old has the opportunity to remain consistent and continue his superb takeoff to what could be a rookie-of-the-year type season.
VALUE FALLING
Jhonattan Vegas
After climbing up draft boards and the OWGR due to a period from July through September in which he racked up a win and six top-25s, Vegas has gotten off to a massively slow start in his first three events of the 2016-17 season. A missed cut at the Safeway Open followed by T-45s at the CIMB Classic and WGC-HSBC Champions event won't help at all with his confidence. During his first round this past week in China, Vegas posted an embarrassing seven-over 79 to begin the tournament. Fortunately he was able to rebound nicely with a six-under 66 on Sunday, but he will need a few more rounds like that before being considered "back on track."
Danny Lee
Following a disappointing culmination to the 2015-16 season in which he missed the final three cuts of his campaign, Lee failed to finish higher than 50th during both the Safeway Open and CIMB Classic this October. Struggles around the greens and with the putter have been his major woes recently, and he currently ranks 99th in actual scoring average on Tour through his first two events. Having fallen outside of the top-50 in the world ranking, Lee has a chance to get back on track at the upcoming Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
David Lingmerth
The months of September and October did not treat Lingmerth very well at all as he experienced a brutal start to the 2016-17 season after struggling mightily in the FedExCup Playoffs. In fact, his best finish throughout this stretch was a 60th-place result in his last event at the CIMB Classic, which also included a five-over-par 77 during the second round, following a missed cut at the Safeway Open. Lingmerth's short game has failed him of late, and really no aspect of his game has been positive recently. He will need to turn things around quickly to avoid falling even further into fantasy irrelevance.
Smylie Kaufman
Ever since Kaufman's collapse at the 2016 Masters when he closed with a nine-over 81, the once-promising young talent hasn't been able to get back over the hump and string together a streak of solid finishes. Some of the blame should be put on the minor wrist injury he was forced to deal with, although he still hasn't seen much success despite recovering from the setback. In two starts this season he missed the cut at the Safeway Open and followed that up with a T45 at the CIMB Classic. The 24-year-old is set to defend his title this week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which could be what Kaufman needs to get back on his feet.
INJURY UPDATE
Tiger Woods
Woods seemingly completed his recovery from September 2015 back surgery a few weeks ago and is not necessarily injured any longer, but he delayed his return to competitive golf because he did not feel he was ready to compete against other professionals. Now, he is ready to give it a go again, as he announced Tuesday that he is planning to play in next month's Hero World Challenge. Woods' withdrawal from the last event he was set to play in, the Safeway Open, means he is not a lock to return to action in December, but he and fantasy owners now at least have a new target in mind for his return.
Jason Day (back)
Having withdrawn from the TOUR Championship in late September due to a back injury, Day continues to remain on the sidelines as he looks to avoid any major issue. There's no reason for the world's No. 1 player to rush himself in his recovery, as a setback may be the only obstacle that could keep him from dominating the competition again in 2017. It could be until early January at the Tournament of Champions before we see Day back in PGA Tour action, but he remains an elite fantasy weapon.
Danny Willett (back)
Willett made his return to PGA Tour action this past week at the WGC-HSBC Champions event after dealing with a back injury, but he posted rounds of 74-78-75-75 to finish 14-over and nearly in last place. There hasn't been much to admire about his play since winning the Masters back in April, but he has remained in the top-10 of the OWGR. While the minor back issue may have hindered his performance in China during his most recent event, Willett will look to avoid any future setbacks and return to his early-2016 form, lest he risk finding his name in the "Value Falling" category.
Justin Rose (back)
Rose was given an eight-week timetable to recover from his back injury in early October, and it looks like he will be able to get back on the course in early December as expected, as he is part of the field for the upcoming Hero World Challenge. This isn't the Englishman's first experience with back issues, so he should be comfortable with listening to his body in order to avoid returning too soon. Rose's summer was highlighted by a gold medal in Rio at the Olympics, and he will look to get back to notable form once he is totally healthy.
