This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
We have finally arrived at the year's final major, the PGA Championship from Whistling Straits in Sheboygan, Wisc. Vijay Singh won here in 2004, while Martin Kaymer won the 2010 edition after Dustin Johnson's bunker/not-a-bunker fiasco on the 18th hole. Here's our stats preview.
It's a Links Course, But It's Not a Links Course
This is an important point to make: This course LOOKS links like -- it has fescue grass and tall rough and it's along Lake Michigan, but it doesn't exactly play how Chambers Bay or St. Andrews played. You can't run the ball onto the green from everywhere -- this is a Pete Dye golf course after all -- and you must be accurate with your approach shots so you hit into the correct portion of these at times diabolical greens. Additionally, it's playing soft after a lot of rain.
The lesson: while someone like Zach Johnson, whose precision game thrived at the Open Championship would on paper seem like someone who could play well this week, his lack of distance (and the fact that he may not get mega-run on certain holes) could have an issue. I know that sounds counterintuitive to some that say that Pete Dye courses demand precision, but Dustin Johnson overpowered the golf course in 2010, and four of the guys who finished up top -- Dustin, winner Martin Kaymer, playoff loser Bubba Watson and near-miss man Rory McIlroy -- hit it a long way.
Want to play devil's advocate with me?
We have finally arrived at the year's final major, the PGA Championship from Whistling Straits in Sheboygan, Wisc. Vijay Singh won here in 2004, while Martin Kaymer won the 2010 edition after Dustin Johnson's bunker/not-a-bunker fiasco on the 18th hole. Here's our stats preview.
It's a Links Course, But It's Not a Links Course
This is an important point to make: This course LOOKS links like -- it has fescue grass and tall rough and it's along Lake Michigan, but it doesn't exactly play how Chambers Bay or St. Andrews played. You can't run the ball onto the green from everywhere -- this is a Pete Dye golf course after all -- and you must be accurate with your approach shots so you hit into the correct portion of these at times diabolical greens. Additionally, it's playing soft after a lot of rain.
The lesson: while someone like Zach Johnson, whose precision game thrived at the Open Championship would on paper seem like someone who could play well this week, his lack of distance (and the fact that he may not get mega-run on certain holes) could have an issue. I know that sounds counterintuitive to some that say that Pete Dye courses demand precision, but Dustin Johnson overpowered the golf course in 2010, and four of the guys who finished up top -- Dustin, winner Martin Kaymer, playoff loser Bubba Watson and near-miss man Rory McIlroy -- hit it a long way.
Want to play devil's advocate with me? The man who finished T3, also one shot out of a playoff: Zach Johnson.
The PGA's Philosophy
There are many -- I'm among them -- who consider the PGA Championship's setup to be the best all year. Why? Kerry Haigh, the man in charge of the setup, makes it fair, makes it scoreable, but also punishes players for poor shots. So the greens won't be crazy fast, the fairways insanely hard to hit or the rough so thick you can only hack it out (more on that later). You'll be able to score, but if you start going the wrong way, you'll go the wrong way. Look for somewhere between 8-under and 12-under to win, and if the conditions hold up, it should be a ton of fun.
Is Jordan Spieth Healed (Mentally)?
Mixed messages have come from Spieth since the near-miss at St. Andrews, with him sometimes saying he just looks at the loss as just another major he failed to win and it's time to look forward, while other times saying it would have been cool to win the Grand Slam. Which attitude he takes could play a factor down the stretch on Sunday if he's in contention, with positive previous thoughts having a huge impacts on his prior wins in 2015. He was inconsistent at Firestone but came back strong on Sunday shooting 66, a round that saw him gain nearly five strokes on the field, with just over 4.5 coming from tee to green. That's the momentum he needs to bring into Whistling Straits.
Rough is Up
Watching Golf Channel and listening to some of the players this week, one point is clear: the rough is up. Not U.S. Open-you-can-barely-advance-it rough, but more rough than we see on the PGA Tour and clearly an issue if you are trying to be precise hitting it into certain quadrants of these greens. So as you create your fantasy team, keep that in mind. Here's the top driving accuracy players on the PGA Tour in the field this week:
Francesco Molinari 77.03 percent
David Toms 74.20
Jason Bohn 72.40
Zach Johnson 72.18
Who We Pick
I'm going with Jordan Spieth. It's a special year, and I think he bounces back from not winning The Open Championship with a dazzling performance here. We know how consistent Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose have been lately. A bomber like Brooks Koepka always looms. Rory McIlroy is back, though I'm skittish about knowing how much competitive rust he'll have. And Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson can't be trustworthy.
So who do I like as super-sleepers? Try Pat Perez and Anirban Lahiri (not original picks, credit must go to friend, Yahoo! blogger and frequent guest on my radio show, Ryan Ballengee and David Feherty, respectively). Perez has two top-10s and 19 made cuts in 22 starts and ranks 43rd in strokes gained-putting, and 47th in strokes gained-total this season. Lahiri, who frequent readers will note I've liked going back to The Masters, is 53rd in the world and is hitting more than 71 percent of his greens on the European Tour along with nearly 61 percent of his fairways.
