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2024 Valspar Championship: When I paint my masterpiece
It is tough to put Sunday's emotional roller coaster into words. Wyndham Clark gave us hope on the seventy-second hole. Once Xander Schauffele's approach was 50+ feet from the cup, we all knew it was down to Scheffler and our outright. The 36-hole leader played the weekend five under par with a four-stroke lead and lost by one. Only three players were better than 66 on Sunday. Si Woo Kim, Grayson Murray and the number one player in the world, Scottie Scheffler, carded a 64. I'm still not over it, but the PGA TOUR rolls on, and we have another tournament to win. Three outrights finishing in the top 9 is validating our process, but it's time to take one down!
One last stop on the Florida Swing; the Valspar Championship. A field of 156 players are signed up to compete for $8.4 million dollars. The top 65 and ties get to play the weekend and will have a chance to take home the copperhead trophy and $1.5 million dollars for first place. The Tampa Bay Classic was once a schedule nomad. Played in May, September, October, and now March, this spot in the lead up to Augusta National has brought better than average talent to Palm Harbor, near Tampa Bay. Ten of the top 30 in the world will be on hand to stop Taylor Moore from defending his title.
2024 Valspar Championship: Wet paint
The wet winter that plagued all of Florida has cleared up in recent weeks. The Tampa-St. Petersburg region has seen less than an inch of rain in March. A couple of showers passed through on Monday, but for the most part, tournament officials and grounds personnel have the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort ready to challenge the TOUR. The average winning score over the past decade is just 11 under par. The event has had one cutline under par in the last 20 years. It doesn't matter what time of year you play the Copperhead; it is tough.
A par 71 layout covering 7,340 yards, the most distinguishing characteristic of this scorecard is the five par 3s. Seventy-three hundred yards and one less driver hole adds up over four days. The Valspar committee has a very stern test they continue to make more and more difficult. Nine holes have water in play, 74 bunkers and the final three holes are referred to as the "snake-pit." A catchy name for the close to the Copperhead, the par 4 sixteenth, par 3 seventeenth, and par 4 eighteenth play to an average of 0.55 strokes over par. It's not quite TPC Sawgrass, but these three will make you earn the Valspar title.
The GCSAA report shared a couple of notes on the course preparation. The rough was increased last year by .75" and they will keep it at the new height. Surrounding the greens, the intermediate cut of rough was squeezed from 72" wide to just 21". Moving the deep rough closer to the green will increase difficulty. The average green size is just 5,822 sq/ft. Similar to the Stadium Course last week, players historically struggle to reach the TOUR average for GIRs. A big reason for missing greens is the length of the approach shots. The Copperhead forces players to land in a common area off the tee. Dogleg turns, penalty areas, and fairway width makes this a positional OTT place.
By laying up off the tee, the course becomes quite longer on approach. Those iron shots become the first key to contending. A second key might just come from the clouds. Use the real-time weather link this week. More wet weather or storms are expected on Friday. More than an inch of rain is in the forecast as of writing this. Temperatures will be warm, but let's hope the precipitation doesn't become a factor. Innisbrook doesn't sit far from the Gulf of Mexico. Early wind values are low, but the proximity to the coast could add a little to the prediction.
2024 Valspar Championship: Snake charmer
There have been three winners of the Valspar over the past five years. Paul Casey and Sam Burns won back-to-back, and then Moore last year. Researching their wins and the leaderboards just behind them, I see a couple of very specific trends. The first is iron play.
Those same three winners gained over five strokes (average) on the field with their approach game. There's a definite lean toward mid and long iron play to consider. When you analyze proximity to the hole, those same winners gained more from 200+ yards than any other category. This really makes sense when you consider the five par 3s and four par 5s. The 5s are reachable and the average par 3 length is 212 yards. Hit it close from long range and you'll be in position to win on Sunday.
I mentioned the par 5s. Of the 3s, 4s, and 5s, winners separate by their play on the par 5s more than the other par holes. Over the past five years, those three guys have gained an average of 6.7 strokes on the field playing the par 5s. You have to play the par 3s and 4s solidly, but because they are so difficult the eventual winner makes the most birdies on the longest holes. The par 5 birdie rate is 31%. Comparatively, the collective par 3 birdie rate is 10% and the 3s have an average bogey rate of 18%. Survive those and make your move on the 5s and reasonable 4s. Thankfully six of the nine par 4s are under 450 yards.
Speaking of birdies, with an average winning score of 12 under par in the last five events, pay attention to those same winners who generated an average of 19 sub-par scores. Players will make bogeys on the Copperhead Course. I'm weighing bogey avoidance heavily along with scrambling and around the green play. Almost every player will attempt to compete from the same spot in the fairway so the second-best place to differentiate in the ball striking categories is with your short game. The last ten winners have gained an average of seven plus strokes on the field with their short game and putter. Burns has an incredible resume here and his putter and creativity around the greens is why.
Putting on Poa trivialis doesn't hurt either when it comes to Sam's success. The putting surfaces at Innisbrook are some of the most difficult to read on the Florida swing. I have played this course and covered this tournament live before and I believe that's the main reason why we get the same winners here. If you can read these greens, you have a considerable advantage on the field. The average player does not putt well here.
Five of the last 10 winners lost strokes OTT and still won. Concentrate on the players who excel from approach and in. The Copperhead has produced a couple of very good finishes over the past ten years. Three playoffs, first time winners, and young stars. Enjoy the iron play and stay with the hot hand. Any player that decided to jump back in the arena after last week, wants to get ready for Augusta. The best way to prepare is to win. I have four players on our card who have been excellent over the past three to six weeks. They are in perfect form to collect the Copperhead snake trophy come Sunday.
2024 Valspar Championship: Outright Winners
Sam Burns (+1400)
In five starts at the Valspar, Burns has finished 12-30-1-1-6.
- Sam is gaining five strokes against the field over his last five TOUR starts.
- Burns gains an average of 10 strokes on the field per start at the Valspar.
- He gains an average of seven strokes with the flat stick on the Copperhead Course.
- Second in the field for par-5 scoring, Burns is ranked top 10 in bogey avoidance and strokes gained putting.
Brian Harman (+2200)
Harman's iron game is off the charts in his last two starts. He gained 5.6 strokes at API and nine at TPC Sawgrass.
- Harman finished top-5 at Innisbrook in 2022.
- Harman is a birdie machine ranked top 20 in BoB% and eleventh in putting.
- The Open Champion, when the weather comes in on Friday look for Brian to blow away the field.
- Harman's secret weapon is par 4 scoring. He's great on the 5s too but watch him separate on this collection of par-4s.
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