This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Shriners Children's Open
TPC Summerlin
Las Vegas, NV
The PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas as the Shriners Children's Open gets underway.
In case you didn't know, we are officially in the thick of it right now. This portion of the season is only for the die-hard golf fans, so if you're still following along, you are a part of a very exclusive group. Making it harder for even this exclusive group has been the quality of the fields for the first two weeks of this fall season. Luckily this week we get a boost with Tom Kim, and Ludvig Aberg decided to stick around as well, so that's huge, but overall, this field looks a lot like this past week. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, with no wrap-around schedule anymore, the fall season has slipped back into "silly season" mode, so we aren't going to get the big names like we've had over the past few years, but we will get some stars next week in Japan, so if you're only in it for the elite golfers, then just wait one more week. For those that are in it for the weekly grind, to see who finishes inside the top-125, then this is your week because guys are moving in and out of the top-125 on a weekly basis now and likely will be for the next 5-6 weeks.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.
LAST YEAR
Tom Kim shot a final-round 66 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Matthew NeSmith.
FAVORITES
Tom Kim (11-1)
When Kim won this event this past year, it was thought that he'd take his game to the next level and join the elites, but that did not happen. While Kim is recognized as one the up-and-coming players on the PGA Tour, he didn't quite take off like we thought he might. With that said, it's still just a matter of time, after all, he's only 21 years old, and he dealt with a lot of expectations this past year. I'm not sure he wins again in this spot, but at these odds he's worth a look.
Ludvig Aberg (12-1)
Aberg was the favorite this past week and he nearly paid off, losing in a five-man playoff to Luke List. I think it's important to read Tom Kim's write-up at this point because here comes Aberg, with expectations abound and now it's a question if he can live up to the hype. Like Kim, he'll likely find it easier to have success during this portion of the season and might struggle once everyone comes back from vacation, but no matter what happens in 2024, this price looks pretty enticing this week.
Cam Davis (22-1)
Though this is not a strong field, it's a little bit better than this past week as evidenced by Si Woo Kim also being at the same price. Davis closed the regular season on a high note with top-10s in two of his final three events and he posted a T3 in the first fall season event this past month. He seems to be in good form entering this week and should contend this week if his form looks anything like it did last month.
THE NEXT TIER
Adam Schenk (30-1)
It was quite the season for Schenk as he parlayed a ticket into the TOUR Championship into a top-10 finish in the FedEx standings. The question entering this week is his form as we haven't seen him since the end of August. What he does have going for him this week is his history at this event. Schenk has finished inside the top-30 in five of his six starts here including a T3 in 2022.
Tom Hoge (33-1)
Hoge struggled to find much success during the heart of the season this year, but that doesn't mean he had a poor season. Hoge played well in the fall this past year, and he closed out the season pretty well. He also posted a T13 in his lone start this fall, so perhaps he's getting ready to go on another run. Hoge's track record here is a bit scattered, but he missed a top-25 just once in his past five starts here.
Eric Cole (35-1)
Credit to Cole, he's still grinding it out even though he's secured his card for next season. Perhaps he's trying to take advantage of the weaker fields or maybe he's just trying to conquer these events where he failed to make the cut this past year. That was the case at the Fortinet and the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he missed the cut in 2022, but made it in 2023. He missed the cut here this past year as well, but as we've already seen, that doesn't matter anymore, he's just a much better player now.
LONG SHOTS
Mark Hubbard (55-1)
Hubbard is coming off a pretty solid season where he ended in the top-70 on the FedEx list. This result was due in large part to heater he got on during the months of June and July. Hubbard is off to a good start this fall as well with a T17 and T6 in his first two starts, so perhaps he's ready to go on another heater.
Matthew NeSmith (75-1)
Speaking of heaters, NeSmith found himself on one around this time this past year. NeSmith posted top-10s in three consecutive events this past fall, but unfortunately, that was the peak of his season. NeSmith struggled for most of the regular season, but he did post a T25 in his first start this fall.
ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES
Highly-chosen Pick: Ludvig Aberg - After just missing out this past week, I have to assume that Aberg will once again be quite popular this week. Aberg appears to have "it" and those players often take advantage of situations like this where the competition is not as strong as it will be six months from now.
Moderately-chosen Pick: Adam Schenk - Schenk enters as the highest player on the FedEx list in the field, which doesn't mean he's the best player in the field, but it does mean that he's been the best player over the past 12 months. Whether that results in a good finish this week is yet to be determined, but I have to imagine he'll play well this week.
Lightly-chosen Pick: Mark Hubbard - Perhaps I'm biased because I had Hubbard on one of my teams this past year, but I think he's close to breaking through. Yes, at 34 he would qualify as a late bloomer, but it's been done before, so why not? Even if he doesn't take it to the next level, he could still leave a mark in the fall against weaker competition.
Buyer Beware: Tom Kim - Similar to this past week, there just aren't enough high-end players in the field to come up with a legitimate player to avoid this week, but if I'm stretching it a bit, Kim could fall into that category only because he's defending for the first time on the PGA Tour and he didn't exactly live up to expectations this past season.
This Week: Ludvig Aberg - This seems like an easy play when looking at this event in a vacuum. Aberg entered this past week with a ton of expectations as the favorite and he almost won. He appears to be special and special players come through when you expect it.
FANDUEL PICKS
Upper Range: Ludvig Aberg ($12,000)
Middle Range: Adam Schenk ($10,600)
Lower Range: Matthew NeSmith ($8,900)
SURVIVOR LEAGUES
This Week: Webb Simpson - We're getting to the stage in Simpson's career where it's hard to trust him on a weekly basis, but I'm giving him some leash in this spot because of his track record here. Yes, he did miss the cut in his most recent start here, but he had made 10/11 cuts here prior to that. I'll give him one more shot in this spot.
