Weekly Preview: Mexico Open at Vidanta

Mexico Open at Vidanta

Vidanta Vallarta
Vallarta, Mexico

The PGA Tour heads to Mexico for -- fittingly -- the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

I have to admit, when I first saw this event on the schedule, I thought it was the former WGC tournament. However, when I looked at the field, it became obvious that it was anything but. In fact, the group of players looks more like one you will see in an alternate-field event.

The field is...well, thin. But, Jon Rahm will be participating. It's about the only thing preventing this from resembling a tournament you see during the dog days of summer. Don't get me wrong, there are some good golfers on hand, but it's rare to see a field like this when the tournament is not held the same week as a WGG event or, say, the Open Championship. 

To further complicate matters from a fantasy perspective, there is no course history in play, so this week's predictions will be based on two things: form and desire. The former we can see, but we are forced to speculate on the latter. It's not going to be easy.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 11:00 AM ET Tuesday.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (9-2)

If you've read this article at any point this season, you know what I'm about to say here. I understand that Rahm is not only better than anyone else in this field, but considerably better. And yet, there's no way I would even consider placing a bet at this price. He's the favorite, and if he plays well he could win, but there's no value in anyone at this number against a full field on a course that's new to almost everyone.

Abraham Ancer (16-1)

It's not often you see the second favorite at this price, but that's what happens when one player is well ahead of the rest. Ancer is an interesting play, not only because he hails from Mexico, but also because he withdrew from two of his past three starts and we aren't quite sure why. With that said, there's still value in wagering on him.

Tony Finau (20-1)

After finally capturing his first full-field win last year, it was thought that Finau would have a breakout season, but that has yet to materialize. In 12 official starts, Finau has managed just one top-20. We know some guys get complacent after picking up a victory, but it would seem odd that a player of Finau's level would fall into that trap this far into his career. Whatever the case, he shouldn't be listed at this price. Those odds are based on name only and have nothing to do with current form.

THE NEXT TIER

Kevin Na (25-1)

Na's name regularly gets mentioned whenever the Saudi golf league is brought up, and perhaps his time on the PGA Tour is about to end. If that's affecting him mentally, though, we haven't seen it on the golf course. Na got off to a rough start this season, but he's played pretty well in his past three events, notching a T9 at the Match Play event and a T14 at the Masters.

Cameron Tringale (30-1)

Raise your hand if you were aware that Tringale is currently inside the top 30 in the FedExCup Standings. My hands are still on the keyboard. Tringale had a solid fall, and he backed that up with a T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open in January. After going through a rough patch in March, he looks to be back on track, with top-15s in his two most recent starts.

Sebastian Munoz (30-1)

When we last saw Munoz he was playing fairly well, with no finishes outside the top 40 in six consecutive starts, including THE PLAYERS and the Match Play event. However, he hasn't teed it up since the end of March due to a back injury. There's obviously some risk involved placing a wager on someone who is returning from a multi-week absence, but that is baked into the odds, so you're getting a nice price if he's at full speed.

LONG SHOTS

Aaron Rai (50-1)

Does Rai have enough at this stage of his career to pull off a win? We'll see, but I like the way he's trending right now. Rai has run extremely hot and cold this season, and it looks like he's about to run hot again. Sure, you can't take away too much from this past week's team event, but his squad played well early and posted a T4 against some stiff competition. Perhaps that finish will boost Rai's confidence.

Sahith Theegala (60-1)

Theegala missed the cut at the Zurich Classic, but again, we can't put too much into team results. Besides, missing the cut the previous week doesn't seem to matter to Theegala, as the last time he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS, he followed that up with a T7 at the Valspar Championship. His best finish this season -- a T3 at the Phoenix Open -- came a week after a T65 at Pebble Beach.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Abraham Ancer - Though it will be tempting to take Rahm in this format, there are a few things to keep in mind. Rahm is nowhere near peak form, we have three majors to go, and the purse is not that big, so anything outside a win won't give you enough payoff. Add it all up, and I'm expecting Ancer to be the most popular pick.

Moderately-owned Pick: Kevin Na - Your guess is as good as mine, as I have no clue how the selections will look after Ancer. I would guess that bigger name like Finau and Patrick Reed might grab some attention, but I'd rather go with Na if I'm looking to buck the trend.

Lightly-owned Pick: Doug Ghim - Ghim is progressing at a good pace, but nowhere near the pace that his classmates set. He's getting there, but it's taking some time. Ghim had a rough stretch earlier this year, but it looks like he is back on track. One of these weeks he's going to make a major move, and this field is ripe for the picking.

Buyer Beware: Jon Rahm - Rahm's name is going to dominate this event, as he's the only elite player in the field. Even though he's the clear favorite, we need to keep in mind that he's not shown anything close to his best form this season. Maybe he finds it this week, but I'd rather see him play well for four rounds and take him the following week than take him and hope.

Last Week: Ryan Palmer - T18 - $40,048

Season Total: $6,045,475

This Week: Cameron Tringale - I never thought I'd be taking Tringale in this format this season, but here where are. This pick came down to Tringale and Ancer, and although I'm expecting Ancer to play well, I don't like following the majority and I'm expecting Ancer to be very popular. The recent withdrawals certainly don't help his cause.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Abraham Ancer ($11,700)
Middle Range: Cameron Tringale ($10,900)
Lower Range: Satoshi Kodaira ($7,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Ryan Palmer - T18

Streak: 2

This Week: Cameron Tringale - There really is no safe pick, as motivation is a huge unknown for most of these guys. If Ancer did not have any question marks, I'd take him in a heartbeat, but he's the last guy I would take this week given his recent history. Tringale has the form right now, and he should view this as a prime opportunity to pick up a win.