Weekly Preview: RBC Heritage

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
Hilton Head, SC

The PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head with the first major of 2021 in the books. 

Speaking of The Masters, it didn't exactly live up to the hype, as there were only about five minutes of drama on Sunday. However, it was good to see a quality golfer like Hideki Matsuyama finally break through for his first major. 

Matsuyama wasn't on many short lists of possible winners this past week, and that plays into a question I was asked about which stats are important predictors at Augusta. Most people would say putting or short-game numbers, and while both answers are correct, my answer was, "none...really." Maybe in a sense I meant all stats are equally important and unimportant, because these guys are all elite golfers in every phase of the game. Sure, Matsuyama might not be a great putter compared to his peers, but he's plenty capable of putting at an elite level any given week. This is the problem when relying solely on stats as a predictor -- you never know which players are going to perform at their normal levels that week.

Golf is not like other sports that -- in addition to individual numbers -- have more data points, such as team and opponent context. In golf, it's all on the player and how he fares on the course.

LAST YEAR

Webb Simpson shot a final-round 64 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Abraham Ancer.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (10-1)

It didn't work out for DJ at the Masters, but it's always tough defending a major title, especially when you are playing a course you set a record at the year prior...only it's not quite the same course. Whatever the reason for his troubles this past week, I expect DJ to get back on track, but the problem is he hasn't played all that well at Harbour Town. In five starts, DJ has yet to post a single top-10. He'll be determined to play well, but his odds don't carry enough value to make a play here.

Webb Simpson (13-1)

Simpson should probably be the favorite, and if he were in better form, he probably would be. That only works to our advantage, as his odds are a little higher than they should be. Back to his form, it's not great entering the week, but it's not terrible either. He did post a T12 at the Masters, and his track record here is so good that if he's close to his best, he can still find a way to win.

Patrick Cantlay (17-1)

Speaking of better form, if Cantlay had shown anything this past week he might be the favorite, but he didn't and now we've got pretty good odds on a guy who has a heck of a track record here. In three starts at this event, Cantlay has one T7 and a pair of third-place finishes. I often disregard poor showings at majors, as the courses are so different from what these guys see on a weekly basis. I'll do that here for Cantlay, as he's a solid play at this number.

THE NEXT TIER

Daniel Berger (19-1)

It's a bit of a strange week in that the big names are the guys that have the best track records here. I know, it seems to make sense on the surface, but usually there are a couple guys near the top of the odds chart only because of their name. This week, only DJ falls into that category. Berger is a pretty big name now, and he does have one good showing here, but nothing resembling a consistent track record. However, Berger is becoming one of those guys that's a threat every time he tees it up at a standard PGA Tour event.

Will Zalatoris (28-1)

A few golfers fall between the favorites and Zalatoris on the odds chart, but as mentioned, those guys don't have great track records here, which increases Zalatoris' odds in my eyes. He's coming off a great showing at the Masters, and if he can bring some of that momentum into this week he's going to contend again.

Brian Harman (34-1)

If you think Harman is getting a lot of airtime on the weekends lately, you're right. It's because he's on quite a roll right now. Harman finished solo-third at THE PLAYERS last month and followed that with a T5 at the Match Play event. He backed that up with a T12 at the Masters. His track record here is good enough that, coupled with his current form, Harman makes for a solid play at this number.

LONG SHOTS

Matt Kuchar (45-1)

I'm not sure Kuchar has enough gas in the tank to pull off a win on the PGA Tour, but if he does, this might be the place to do it. Kuchar won this event in 2014 and has posted three top-10s in six starts since. He's also made the cut here in 16-of-17 starts.

Kevin Kisner (55-1)

Kisner's track record here is a bit scattered, but he does have some high-end finishes, which means he's worth a look at this number. Kisner finished runner-up in 2014 and posted a T7 in 2018. He also has a T11 on his resume, but he does have a couple missed cuts in his eight starts here.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - The missed cut last week might scare some OAD players, but it shouldn't. Cantlay should be able to erase that from his memory and get back to business. Cantlay is in the midst of a great season and another win this week would not be a surprise.

Moderately-owned Pick: Webb Simpson - Simpson might be the most popular play this week, but he was probably used quite a bit earlier in the year and many OAD players are probably going to wait for the Wyndham Championship. If you do decide to use him, I certainly couldn't argue with that play as he's either 1 or 1A with Cantlay.

Lightly-owned Pick: Will Zalatoris - It seems odd that someone who garnered so much attention this past week at the Masters would be lightly owned, but with Cantlay and Simpson looking like really good picks this week, I'm going to go out on a limb and say anyone outside of those two will be lightly owned. Zalatoris will need to come down from the high of contending at the Masters, but I think he's up for the challenge.

Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson - I think you got the feel for my thoughts on DJ earlier and while he's always a threat to win, I'm not sure this will be his week. If DJ brings his best game, he'll likely win, it's that easy, but with a couple of quality players in Cantlay and Simpson, both of which have great track records here, right behind him, he'll need to be on point this week and I'm not sure he'll bring his best the week after the Masters.

Last Week: Lee Westwood - MC - $0

Season Total: $3,192,763

This Week: Webb Simpson - My original plan was to save Simpson for the Wyndham Championship, but with the start I've had to this season, I need to go to plan B. I used Cantlay during the 2020 portion of the season, and if I hadn't, I might have used him in this spot, but since I have no choice I'll go with Simpson. I can only hope that not many are on Simpson as well.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Webb Simpson ($11,800)
Middle Range: Brian Harman ($10,200)
Lower Range: Mackenzie Hughes ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Paul Casey - 26

Streak: 2

This Week: Matt Kuchar - I wouldn't normally take Kuchar in this format given where he is at in his career, but he's been so strong here, I feel comfortable making this play. As noted above, Kuchar has been a near-lock to play the weekend when he tees it up at this event.