Weekly Preview: Sentry Tournament of Champions

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Plantation Course at Kapalua
Maui, HI

The PGA Tour heads to Hawaii to kick off the 2023 portion of the schedule.

Whenever I sit down to pen the first article of a new year it's hard to believe that golf is underway, but this year it's even more difficult to process, as just outside my window, 10 inches of snow are falling. That, however, is why they start the season in Hawaii and not Minnesota. 

The story is the same here every year -- we're coming off the longest break of the season and we can't be sure how the golfers are going to fare. Luckily, we have a lot of course history, which in this case also serves as a guide for current form. While we don't know what shape players are in, we can look to the past to determine how each of them generally responds after a long break. Some guys hit the ground running and some need a few weeks to get going. 

One thing is certain this week, and that is the fact the odds are not very generous in a short field. If you aren't getting a great payout, you better be sure about the golfer -- or golfers -- you go with. There's also some interesting OAD strategy to consider with only 39 golfers set to tee it up.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 8:30 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Cameron Smith shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Jon Rahm.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (6-1)

Even though the field for this event is never very large, the fact that Rahm has never finished outside the top 10 in five tries is very impressive. His best finish is runner-up, which he's done twice, in 2018 and this past year. Though other players have higher-end finishes, no one in the field has been as consistent as Rahm at this event. With that said, he has yet to win here, and his price doesn't provide much value, so I'd pass on Rahm at this price.

Scottie Scheffler (9-1)

Scheffler passed every test this past year. Coming into the season, Scheffler didn't even have a win on the PGA Tour. After his first win, he could have easily relaxed, but he did the opposite. Complacency didn't set in after winning his first major either. He didn't close like he started, but how could he have kept up that pace? So, is Scheffler a top-3 player or a top-10 player? We'll find out soon enough. As for this week, Scheffler has just one start here that resulted in a T13 in 2021, but he's obviously a different player now. With that said, with no history of success on this course, 9-1 is too light for a win bet.

Patrick Cantlay (10-1)

It was a little surprising to see Cantlay open ahead of Justin Thomas on the odds chart, but often times in situations like this, the oddsmakers seem to be ahead of the curve. The two have the same odds now -- as does Xander Schauffele -- but looking as Cantlay's results here, I can't see why he's even even, as Cantlay's best finish here were solo fourths in 2020 and 2022, while Thomas has won this event twice. Whatever the case, this price seems too light to make a win play.

THE NEXT TIER

Cameron Young (19-1)

This is certainly a first, as all three mid-tier players are first-timers. As such, this pick is based on talent and potential as opposed to a track record. Young had a breakthrough season this past year and while he didn't capture a major, he was very close on two occasions. Young is the real deal and he's a candidate to go "full Scheffler" this season, for lack of a better phrase. Does that start this week? Why not? I'll say this, as soon as he wins this season, you'll no longer see anything near 22-1.

Matt Fitzpatrick (21-1)

Fitzpatrick has obviously never played here, but he has the game to succeed. Fitzpatrick is starting that ever important "year after the first major," which often tells the tale of the player's career as they can go one of two ways, either to the moon or to obscurity. Considering that Fitzpatrick's major win was a long time coming, I don't see how he regresses this year. As for this week, 18-1 provides enough value to place a win bet, even though he's a first-timer.

Tom Kim (27-1)

To close out the mid-tier, we've got Kim, who took the golfing world by storm this past fall as he not only had a lot of success on the PGA Tour, but he also showed well at the Presidents Cup. Kim is also a candidate to go "full Scheffler" this season, but that would be a lot of ask of such a young man. Kim, like the other two in this section appears to be the real deal and it's just a matter of how much success he'll have this season. Like Young, these odds won't last long once Kim has any sort of success this season.

LONG SHOTS

Hideki Matsuyama (40-1)

Matsuyama's "season after a first major" was a smashing success. No, he didn't get another major, but he did pick up another two wins on his way to nearly $6 million in earnings. His track record here is good, more so pre-2019, than the past couple years, but that doesn't quite explain these odds. Matsuyama has three finishes inside the top-4 at this event and while he's never won here, he's come close and he obviously knows how to win, so 40-1 feels like a gift.

Sahith Theegala (60-1)

Why not close this out with yet another first-timer? I should mention that this has to be the best group of first-timers I've ever seen at a PGA Tour event, but I digress. Theegala was very impressive this past season, flashing some big-time talent and it's just a matter of time before he puts it all together. Does that happen this season? This week? It's hard to say, but Theegala likely won't be a long shot anywhere for much longer, so you might want to strike right now.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - It's hard to say where ownership on most players is going to land because most OAD players don't want to use an elite player this early, but since Cantlay is not someone you'd save for a major, he might be a popular play. He has a solid track record here and he's coming off a great season.

Moderately-owned Pick: Justin Thomas - Do you want to save Thomas for later in the season? Of course, but it's also hard to ignore his track record here which includes two wins and three additional top-5s. I'd have a hard time using Thomas this early, but with his track record and the short field, I can't argue with this pick.

Lightly-owned Pick: Sahith Theegala - This is where that bit of strategy I mentioned earlier comes into play. One way to go is to pick a guy that you think might not have a ton of value down the road and while Theegala will have some value at a later date, he's certainly not in the class of J.T. or Cantlay. The reasoning behind taking a lower-tier player is that it's a guaranteed check this week, so with that in mind, you could go even lower and hope to get lucky.

Buyer Beware: Will Zalatoris - A couple things in play here. First, is he healthy? We haven't seen Zalatoris on the PGA Tour since this past August. This will be his first start in over four months and there's no way to know where he's at physically. The second issue is his focus on the majors. This past year, Zalatoris was hyper focused at the majors and not as much elsewhere. Is this trend going to continue this season? Whatever the case, it's just too early in the recovery process to trust Zalatoris.

This Week: Russell Henley - Perhaps I'm getting a bit too fancy here, but with his recent success at the Sony Open, Henley is likely to be a popular play next week. I'm trying to avoid joining the crowd, so I'm going to go with Henley here. He checks two essential boxes, the first being his success on this course and in Hawaii in general. It may seem trivial, it sounds dumb, but it's such a different environment than what these guys are used to, so it's good to know they can focus on the task at hand. The other is that he knows how to win. I'm not talking about one lucky win, but several wins on the PGA Tour. Henley broke a long drought this past season and I'm expecting him to build on that this year. Perhaps it starts this week.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($12,000)
Middle Range: Cameron Young ($10,000)
Lower Range: Russell Henley ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Previous Results