Weekly Preview: The American Express

The American Express

PGA West TPC Stadium Course and Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course
La Quinta, CA

The PGA Tour heads to California as the "rotating course" portion of the schedule gets underway. 

This event has historically held a pro-am alongside the main event, but that will not be the case this year due to COVID-19 protocols. In addition, there are only two courses in use this year instead of the normal three. Unlike some other tournaments in this segment of the schedule, there isn't a lot separating the two tracks, and although there are sure to be some golfers who prefer the remaining two courses over the one the La Quinta track that got the boot, it will be tough to figure out who will actually have an advantage, as all three courses have historically played pretty similar. With that in mind, I'm completely comfortable leaning on course history this week. Even though that history includes La Quinta, it only made up a quarter of the rounds played at best.

As for the field, it's not bad. There aren't many elite players on hand, but there are plenty of guys on the verge of breaking into that club.

LAST YEAR

Andrew Landry shot a final-round 67 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Abraham Ancer.

FAVORITES

Patrick Cantlay (14-1)

Cantlay is one of the golfers close to breaking into the top tier, but he needs more success in better fields. A win this week would look very good on his resume, but he'd obviously need to win a WGC or a major to make a case for being a truly "elite" PGA Tour player. Cantlay's position is a little curious, as he's only played here twice and has never finished higher than T9. Cantlay is always a threat to win, but there's not much value at these odds.

Patrick Reed (16-1)

Reed won this event in 2014, but his track record is all over the place. The win is Reed's only top-10 in this event, and he has missed the cut twice in six tries. Reed's only start so far this year was a disappointing effort, as he finished T21 at the TOC, a spot where he had played well. The odds aren't good enough to make a play on Reed this week.

Scottie Scheffler (16-1)

It's a little surprising to see Scheffler this high on the list, especially with some bigger names in the field. However, he did record a T3 here last year and played at a high level for most of 2020. He hasn't done the same in 2021 just yet, and until he does, it's probably a pass for me on any kind of win bet, especially one under the 20-1 mark.

THE NEXT TIER

Brooks Koepka (18-1)

Why is Koepka playing this week? He's never played here before, but perhaps he knew the pro-am would be canceled and he wouldn't have to entertain an amateur for four days. Whatever the reason, I like that Koepka is paying attention to this event. We all know "Major Brooks" plays his best in the big events but isn't as locked in elsewhere. However, at these odds, and with him apparently healthy, he might be worth a look.

Matthew Wolff (20-1)

On paper, this doesn't look like a good spot for Wolff. He finished T61 in his first and only start here and didn't exactly close out 2020 in style. Still, Wolff is that rare golfer who just pops up out of nowhere and either wins or threatens to when you least expect it. Betting on golfers who are "due" is not a recipe for success, but it does help the odds, and the talented Wolff has had ample time to rune his game. He hasn't won since July of 2019, but e has finished runner-up three times since.

Russell Henley (30-1)

As in any sport, sometimes you see a number on a golfer and wonder how the oddsmakers arrived at it. Henley's track record at this event suggests he should be at 50-1 or higher, but he's not. His form is solid, as he's coming off a T11 at the Sony Open, but that doesn't quite justify his mark. No, there's something we can't quite pin down. Perhaps he's one of the guys who might benefit from the absence of a pro-am? Whatever it is, the oddsmakers see something here even if we can't.

LONG SHOTS

Adam Hadwin (50-1)

Hadwin is in the opposite spot of Henley. He doesn't have the recent form, but boy, does he have the track record. He hasn't won this event, but he has finished third or better in three straight starts and recorded a T6 prior to that. His form is a concern, as he's missed three consecutive cuts, but his most recent start was over a month ago and he's had plenty of time to right the ship.

Andrew Landry (150-1)

Landry hasn't played well at all since winning here last year, but he's got some appeal at this price point. I could understand the bloated odds if his win here last year was an anomaly, but it wasn't just a one-time thing, as he posted a runner-up here in 2018. His form was not great when we last saw him on the course, but he did post a T4 just three starts back. If he can tap into whatever source helped him win last year, he's got a shot to go back-to-back and make bettors extremely happy. Stranger things have happened, right? 

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - It's hard to predict which way the majority of OAD players will go this week, but because Cantlay is the favorite and there's no reason not to like him in this format, he will likely be a popular play. While I don't think his odds are good enough to place a bet on him to win, I could certainly see playing him in OAD leagues. My only hesitation is that there might be better spots down the road, but then again, will be favored anywhere else?

Moderately-owned Pick: Scottie Scheffler - Unlike Cantlay, there's no reason to hold onto Scheffler beyond this week. Unless he goes on a big-time run at some point, he's not likely to see better odds. Scheffler has been serviceable of late, but he's missing the high-end showings he was posting last season. Perhaps that changes this week, but if not, he's a good bet for a top-20.

Lightly-owned Pick: Adam Hadwin - If you've read this article at all over the past 20 years, you know I love course history. Although I'm not a fan of how Hadwin has played lately, sometimes these golfers can flip the switch when they get on a track that really suits their eye. I'm hoping that's the case this week for Hadwin.

Buyer Beware: Kevin Na - Na was on fire at the Sony Open, and if he carries that form over, I'm going to get burnt here. However, his track record in this event is spotty, and it's not easy backing up a win. Na has recorded only three top-10s in 15 starts here, and only one in his past eight appearances.

Last Week: Ryan Palmer - T41 - $24,090

Season Total: $1,387,978

This Week: Scottie Scheffler - I really struggled with this pick. It's early in the season, and more often than not, I struggle because I can't decide between two or more players. But this week, I struggled to find two players even worthy of consideration. I was leaning towards Hadwin, but it's so early that I don't feel the need to take a chance. So, I'll take Scheffler, who is the safer option.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Patrick Cantlay ($11,800)
Middle Range: Adam Hadwin ($9,800)
Lower Range: Brendan Steele ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last week: Charles Howell III (T19)

Streak: 3

This week: Scottie Scheffler - It seems a little risky to take a guy in this format who has made just one previous start in an event, but that one start did result in a T3 for Scheffler. Although he hasn't had the high-end finishes of late that I would like to see, he's still played pretty well, with only one missed cut in seven starts and three top-20s in his past four appearances.