Yahoo DFS Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks and Strategy

Yahoo DFS Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks and Strategy

This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach, California
Pebble Beach Golf Links - Par 72 - 6,972 yards
Spyglass Hill Golf Course - Par 72 - 7,041 yards
Monterey Peninsula Country Club - Par 71 - 6,957 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $9M

The Preview

Thankfully, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the last of the irritating course-rotation setups along the West Coast Swing, as a combination of celebrities and corporate folks each spend three rounds paired with a pro before a 54-hole cut precedes Sunday's grand finale back at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula are nowhere near as intimidating on paper as Torrey Pines, with each layout measuring less than 7,100 yards while featuring wide landing areas without much trouble off the tee, though tiny poa greens emphasize the importance of precision on the abundance of shorter approach shots that expect to come from 75-125 yards out. The pro-am's occasionally dreadful format, along with its inconvenient placement on the schedule, draws one of the weaker fields we'll see the rest of the way. As for the weather, scattered showers could arrive at some point throughout Friday and/or Sunday morning, but wind shouldn't cause too much stress until the final round.

Recent Champions

2022 - Tom Hoge
2021 - Daniel Berger
2020 - Nick Taylor
2019 - Phil Mickelson
2018 - Ted Potter Jr.
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Brandt Snedeker

Key Stats to Victory

SG: Approach
Proximity: 75-125 yards
SG: Putting (poa)
Scrambling

Yahoo Value Picks

Based on $200 salary cap

Cream of the Crop

Viktor Hovland - $49

Co-betting favorites Jordan Spieth and Matt Fitzpatrick are going to be the obvious expensive clicks, leaving Hovland as a prime GPP pivot in the upper tier. The latter has enjoyed past success at this venue as well, collecting a dominant 2018 U.S. Amateur victory here when he coasted to a 6 and 5 win in the title match, before tying for 12th at the U.S. Open right back at Pebble Beach in 2019 while still playing as an amateur. Often chirped for his deficiencies in the chipping department, Hovland's encouragingly 11th among this field in scrambling over his last 24 rounds on poa greens, which happens to be his preferred surface from a SG: Putting standpoint. From a fantasy production perspective, Hovland sits No. 1 in Birdies or Better Gained to the field over his last 24 rounds, compared to a ranking of 21st for Spieth and 85th for Fitzpatrick.

Tom Hoge - $43

The defending champion won't go unnoticed at a $6-plus discount from this field's "elite" trio atop the board, and Hoge's repeat hopes are deserving of the attention as he ranks second to none in SG: Approach at any sample size from his last eight to 100 rounds. Potentially keeping his rostership in check is the fact that he failed to place top-30 in his two most recent starts at The American Express and the Sony Open, though he still gained 7.4 strokes with his irons across those six measured rounds.

Glue Guys

Ben Griffin - $36

It wasn't too shocking to see Griffin pop in the No. 1 spot of my custom stat model this week given he's gained strokes both off the tee and on his approaches in five consecutive events dating back to the Cadence Bank Houston Open, rising to 30th in the FedExCup standings without a single missed cut since the season opener. Over his last 24 measured rounds, the Pebble Beach debutant is top-15 in SG: Approach, Par-4 Efficiency, Birdies or Better Gained and Proximity from 100-125 yards.

Alex Smalley - $35

Nobody has hit greens in regulation at a higher clip over their last 24 rounds than Smalley, who's also sixth in Par-5 Efficiency and ninth in Birdies or Better Gained during this span. Smalley's short game needs some work, but the ball striking has already carried him to five top-25s in 10 starts this season.

Russell Knox - $32

Knox is going to be a popular value option this week given his combination of elite approach play, specifically from 100-150 yards, along with his Pebble Beach track record that includes three top-15s in his last five trips to the AT&T Pro-Am. He tied for 33rd here last year despite losing three strokes with the flat stick, and he's gained a cumulative 9.5 strokes on his approach shots throughout his last five rounds at Pebble dating to the 2021 edition of this tournament.

Bargain Bin

David Lipsky - $29

Lipsky posted a top-25 performance in his Pebble Beach debut last year when he ranked T13 in GIR percentage and gained 6.5 strokes putting. His putter is extremely inconsistent, but the spike weeks are worth chasing because Lipsky's ball striking is typically dependable. Over his last 36 measured rounds, Lipsky resides third in Prox: 75-100, eighth in SG: Approach, 14th in Par-4 Efficiency and 18th in Prox: 100-125 yards.

Erik van Rooyen - $28

EVR's 2023 debut at The American Express went surprisingly well as he gained 8.2 strokes from tee to green on the Stadium Course en route to a T6 finish, marking his first top-10 since the RBC Heritage last April. He made the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble, and with such a barren $20s range this week, it might be worth going back to someone who racked up 27 total par-breakers in his most recent outing at the AmEx.

Joseph Bramlett - $23

Bramlett ranked T7 or better in both GIR percentage and SG: Approach on the way to a T13 result at Torrey Pines, which was his third top-25 of the young season. He's well known for his power off the tee, but he also checks in third in Prox: 100-125, seventh in scrambling and 11th in Par-3 Efficiency over his last 24 measured rounds. He tied for 18th at the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am despite averaging a brutal 30.3 putts per round that week.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Bryce Danielson plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: brycedanielson99, FanDuel: brycedanielson99, Yahoo: RotoBOOM.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Bryce Danielson
Bryce covers the PGA for RotoWire and provides input on the golf cheat sheet. He also contributes to the coverage for NFL, NBA and other sports.
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