Fantasy Hockey Draft Mistakes and Early-Season Evaluation

We've all been there. You think you're getting a steal on a player you really like, and you can't understand why they're still on the draft board. It's hard to resist a bargain, and that's especially true on draft day. 

Then, the season starts. All of a sudden, it becomes very clear why that coveted player was lingering on the board. It's tough to see a player you like end up not being worth the price you paid on draft day. It's even worse when it's an early-round selection who is underwhelming. The earlier you drafted them, the harder it is to let them go, especially if they're a goalie with a heavy workload or a defenseman who's role has changed. Positional scarcity plays a factor. 

Roster Recovery Strategies for Underperforming Early-Round Picks

With the calendar flipping to November, this is when I start to dump players that got off to a slow start. I've already dropped a couple of sleepers who didn't pan out -- my shares of Marco Kasper have gone down dramatically. However, I was also big on Dustin Wolf. I'm holding on for now. I don't want to punt on my preferred No. 2 goalie yet, but he's been inconsistent at best and isn't getting much help from his teammates at all. Same thing with Elias Pettersson. He still offers all-around production, but the Canucks are in a tough spot. 

So, when do you make the move on a dramatic roster shake-up? If you can pull off a trade, that's a great route to go. You can recoup some perceived value and maybe get a decent player back in return. However, if you're set on the waiver wire, the answer depends on your league. Leashes are inherently longer in deeper leagues, just because the replacement value level is different. Sometimes, bad is bad everywhere, but other times, you just need to ride out the storm. Shield yourself from bad matchups where you can. The condensed schedule this year allows for a little reprieve on the heavier days. 

How to Maximize Strengths and Minimize Weaknesses Mid-Season

The bigger key is to make sure your strengths remain strong. You may just have to punt a category or two, depending on your league settings and your roster construction. Focus on dominating the areas you are best at and aim for upside with your free-agent moves. You're not going to cover a slacking star with one move. It'll take a collective effort of two or three players to outweigh a bad performance, and it'll likely be a season-long endeavor if the star player doesn't get back on track. That's the price you pay if they're too good to drop but not good enough to trade. 

Troy Terry has been through the worst of the rebuild in Anaheim, but he is still part of the team's core and is reaping the rewards now. He recorded five goals and five assists during a six-game point streak, which ended Sunday against the Devils, while meshing quite well with Leo Carlsson on the top line. The 28-year-old Terry is more of a veteran leader now, and there's always a chance he gets shuffled down the lineup later in the season, but he should stay productive. He's a scoring-only option, as there's virtually no physicality in his playing style. 

If you thought Kiefer Sherwood was going to be a one-year wonder, you'll be disappointed to hear he has nine goals through 13 games. That officially elevates him to interesting status again, especially given all of the Canucks' injuries so far this season. Sherwood is a must-have in banger leagues -- he has 58 hits this year, more than four per game. It's not his historic pace from last year, but it's enough. He won't shoot 36.0 percent all year, and he'll likely slip back into a bottom-six role when the Canucks get healthy. Bottom line: Sherwood is a player you want now, but his usefulness in the long run depends on his point production staying at an acceptable level. 

Identifying Value in Emerging Defensemen and Bottom-Six Forwards

I took a decent amount of Brock Faber shares in my drafts. Unfortunately, he didn't spend much time on the power play early in the season, but he's gotten back in that situation in recent games. The defenseman has just five points on the year, but they've come over the last four games. The key here is upside -- the Wild will even out eventually, and Faber is just 23 years old, so he's likely to be part of the solution. Zeev Buium taking the power-play minutes is a problem, but Faber is good enough to top 30 points and 100 blocked shots over a full season. 

The Oilers haven't quite been at their best yet, but Jake Walman's return after an undisclosed injury has helped the defense dramatically. The defenseman has seven points, 17 blocked shots and a plus-4 rating over seven contests so far. Walman won't get on the first power-play unit, but he's proving he's good enough to be in the picture in fantasy. Once the Oilers' offense really gets humming, the 29-year-old should have no problem generating offense while providing stability in his own zone. 

Dmitry Orlov has been a big surprise on the Sharks' blue line this year. There are plenty of power-play candidates in San Jose -- John Klingberg, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Timothy Liljegren (upper body) -- but Orlov has remained consistently on the second unit. He's earned 10 assists, including four on the power play, through 13 games this season. Orlov has also upped his physicality with 23 hits and 17 blocked shots. With so much youth in the Sharks' lineup, Orlov has done great work to solidify his place as a veteran leader on the blue line. He's on a two-year deal as well, which makes it less likely he'll get traded in the spring. The 34-year-old could put together a career year as long as he keeps his current usage a majority of the time. 

Down in Los Angeles, Brandt Clarke is in an interesting position. His place in the lineup is secure this year, and with the Kings now carrying just seven blueliners, it looks like Clarke is here to stay. He's getting decent power-play time with 1:38 per game, though all seven of his points have come at even strength. Five of those points have come over the last five games. What's the catch? He's averaging just just 17:09 per game. Given the Kings' defensive struggles, especially among the veteran contingent, Clarke should be logging more minutes. He's trending in the right direction, but he's always had a short leash under head coach Jim Hiller. Clarke has plenty of upside, which makes him quite interesting while he's still readily available. 

On the opposite end of the age spectrum, Corey Perry has worked his way into the fantasy conversation again. Since he's returned from a knee surgery, Perry has five goals and two assists over seven games. Perry is playing fairly limited minutes at even strength, but he's carved out a power-play role as a net-front presence. That could be a valuable spot for him. He won't hit much, but he can put up points, shots and PIM this year, especially if he can avoid additional absences. 

Alex Newhook has become an intriguing player for the Canadiens this year. He's racked up four goals over his last four games, including the game-winner in overtime against the Senators on Saturday. With nine points across 12 contests overall, Newhook has started the season well. He'll have to sustain that in a middle-six role with time on the second power-play unit. I'm not fully sold on Newhook just yet, but the Canadiens' overall improvements have worked deep into the lineup, so it's quite possible the 24-year-old has a breakout season. 

We've seen plenty of potential before from Philipp Kurashev. Just look at his 2023-24 season, when he had 54 points in 75 games. We've also seen some deep lows with him, like last year's 14-point effort over 51 appearances. He's already been scratched a few times this season, but he also has nine points in 11 outings, most of which have come since he reentered the lineup in a top-six role. The Sharks are clearly on the rise, and as long as Kurashev stays in the lineup, he's a fine option to help round out the bench spots on fantasy teams. 

Balancing Goalie Commitments in Deep Fantasy Leagues

I don't know what to make of the Penguins. There's been no team more defiant of my preseason thoughts, in either direction, than the squad from Pittsburgh. Tristan Jarry has benefited from an even split of the workload in goal, working alongside Arturs Silovs, who I've already mentioned once this season. Jarry is 5-1-0 with a 2.35 GAA and a .923 save percentage through six starts. If the goalie rotation holds, his starts this week would be at Toronto and at New Jersey, which could be a tough pair of outings. At this point, I'm willing to roll the dice -- Jarry has been good, and the Penguins seem to have adjusted well to head coach Dan Muse's system so far. This week will probably be telling on if they are the real deal or just an October special this season. 

Another team using the goalie rotation pattern this year is Columbus. Elvis Merzlikins has opened the year 4-2-0 with a 2.98 GAA and a .917 save percentage. Wins are wins, and the save percentage is a positive sign even with a lackluster GAA. Jet Greaves is still likely the better goalie, but Merzlikins has seniority, and therefore the better chance of getting starts doubled up during the year. File Merzlikins under the "keep-an-eye-on" category for the Blue Jackets' two-game week ahead, as they'll be busier later in the month. 

The takeaway from this week is flexibility. We all make mistakes in our drafts, whether it's passing on a good player or being too hyped on another player that won't live up to expectations. There's so much we don't know before the season, which makes our mistakes look glaringly obvious later in the year. Now that the season's nearly a month old, it's time to evaluate what's working and what needs to be improved. Exercise a little less patience while addressing what your roster needs, so that you won't fall too far behind if the first month of the campaign didn't go to plan. I'll be back next Monday to look at more players to help retool your rosters in the early going. 

Stuck between two players available on the waiver wire? Check out the NHL Player Comparison Tool or the NHL Trending Players to help break the tiebreaker on your waiver wire decisions.