This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Kay Hansen (7-4-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (6-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Jasudavicious is making her debut and enters with a five-inch reach advantage. She is a decent striker who looks for early trips, loves to fight on the mat, and has deadly knees. Hansen lost a questionable decision last time out and will be eager to get back into the win column here. She has good striking and decent volume on the feet and holds her own on the mat with a purple belt in BJJ.
DFS Perspective: Jasudavicious gets a decent match for her debut, and if she uses her length to her advantage, she will wind up with the upset. Hansen will likely be the aggressor on the feet with more volume and should reverse control if taken down.
My Pick: Hansen
Matt Frevola (8-3-1) v. Genaro Valdez (10-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Frevola is a solid fighter with a well-rounded game. He has good power with a strong hook and will have a significant advantage if he can get the fight to the mat. Valdez is making his debut after a successful stint on the Contender Series. He is a powerful striker with an aptitude for quick finishes, fast hands, and decent grappling.
DFS Perspective: Valdez will seemingly always have a chance to score an early finish with his power and aggression, but his cardio becomes questionable as the fight goes on. Frevola will be the more well-rounded of the two and would make quick work in this fight if he can take it to the mat early.
My Pick: Frevola
Silvana Juarez (6-3-0) v. Vanessa Demopoulos (6-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Juarez enters with a six-inch reach advantage and is the more technical striker. She sits behind a strong jab-cross, will throw solid low kicks to the legs and calves, and shows a decent ground game with heavy ground and pound. Demopoulos has fast hands with a nice one-two but tends to get wild at times, making her hittable. She has decent jiu-jitsu and submission attempts; however, she struggles to get the fight to the mat with a lack of wrestling.
DFS Perspective: Jaurez should be better everywhere this fight goes and has the power to end it early. If Demopoulos wins, it will likely be by a submission that Juarez walks into. Juarez was dominated on the mat to an early submission in her debut, but that was against far better competition, and I think she has all the tools to win this one.
My Pick: Juarez
Tony Gravely (21-7-0) v. Saimon Olivera (18-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Oliveira gets his debut fight after a tough win on the Contender Series. He has a Muay Thai background with great striking, powerful low kicks, and excellent guillotine chokes. Gravely suffered a rough knockout loss last time out and will be looking to rebound impressively. He has a strong wrestling background featuring excellent body-lock takedowns, throws a lot of low kicks, and has does massive damage from top control.
DFS Perspective: Oliveira is live for an upset if he can gain early control or lock onto a guillotine when Gravely is looking for a takedown. Gravely should be the aggressor and have better ground control, leading to an early finish or decision win.
My Pick: Gravely
Michael Morales (12-0-0) v. Trevin Giles (14-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Giles is dropping to welterweight after suffering a nasty first-round knockout loss last time out. He is an excellent all-around fighter with a stiff jab, deadly hook, and solid wrestling and grappling. Morales is making his long-awaited UFC debut and is a highly-touted up-and-comer. He has a propensity for huge knockout wins with phenomenal striking and a terrific ground game to go with it.
DFS Perspective: This is a tough test for Morales's first fight. Giles is a great well-rounded fighter with no real weakness. However, Morales will have a power and size advantage and definitely looks ready to make a splash.
My Pick: Morales
Jack Della Maddalena (10-2-0) v. Pete Rodriguez (4-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Maddalena was impressive on the Contender Series, earning his UFC debut fight. He has fantastic striking with significant power, throwing an excellent jab-hook and finishing eight of his ten wins by knockout. Rodriguez is making his UFC debut on short notice and has a penchant for knockout wins, with four in four fights. He has excellent hands, solid volume and loves to push a fast tempo from the bell.
DFS Perspective: This fight should be a banger for as long as it lasts. Maddalena has fought the better competition and will be better prepared for this fight. However, both guys have immense power, and it could go either way.
My Pick: Maddalena
Ilia Topuria (11-0-0) v. Charles Jourdain (12-4-1)
Fight Analysis: Topuria has quickly made a name for himself in the UFC, moving to 3-0 with back-to-back first-round knockouts. He is a phenomenal boxer with a slick jab, strong hook and overhand, and massive power. Additionally, he is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and shows excellent takedowns and ground control. Jourdain is stepping in on short notice and most recently scored a unanimous decision win in December. He is a high-volume striker with fast hands, decent power, and is tough as nails.
DFS Perspective: Aside from a lucky kill-shot, I do not see Jourdain having any chance in this fight. Topuria is better everywhere and should be applying constant pressure from the bell.
My Pick: Topuria
Raoni Barcelos (16-2-0) v. Victor Henry (21-5-0)
Fight Analysis: Barcelos is a high-paced, high-pressure striker with a stiff jab and strong hook. He will look to attack the legs, slow fighters down, and blitz with heavy combinations in succession. Additionally, he features a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has excellent single and double-leg takedowns. Henry is a strong striker and credentialed grappler with a non-stop motor. He applies good forward pressure behind a stiff jab and strong overhand. Moreover, he has excellent takedowns, including trips, and can control for long periods, dominate on top with ground and pound, or hunt for an armbar or choke.
DFS Perspective: Henry could surprise in his debut. He has fought good competition and should do well in this fight, even in a loss. Barcelos is likely better everywhere the fight goes, but any mistake could spell trouble for him.
My Pick: Barcelos
Rodolfo Vieira (8-1-0) v. Wellington Turman (17-5-0)
Fight Analysis: Turman is a decent striker with a grapple-heavy background. He has a solid one-two, heavy kicks to the legs and body, and has earned seven submissions in his 17 wins. Vieira showed much-improved cardio in his last fight, keeping a comfortable pace throughout the fight and submitting his opponent in the third round. He has subpar striking but thrives on the mat with submissions as a BJJ world champion.
DFS Perspective: This fight comes down to Vieira's cardio. Turman may takeover late with striking or control if he cannot submit Turman early. I believe Vieira has continued working on his cardio and finds an early submission within the first two rounds of this fight.
My Pick: Vieira
Cody Stamann (19-4-1) v. Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0)
Fight Analysis: Stamann has shown an all-around game with good striking and an exceptional ground game. He has a stiff jab, excellent takedowns, and has shown great control when on the mat. Nurmagomedov is a crafty striker with considerable power, throwing a huge overhand and nice jab. He fights from range and uses good takedown defense to keep it on the feet.
DFS Perspective: Stamann has a strong chance to earn the upset if he can work in the pocket and get Nurmagomedov under control on the mat. Easier said than done, of course. Nurmagomedov works well from range and can be difficult to take down. An early finish or high-volume decision victory is likely in store.
My Pick: Nurmagomedov
Michael Pereira (26-11-0, 2NC) v. Andre Fialho (14-3-0, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: Fialho enters the night on short notice to make his UFC debut and gets as tough a matchup as it gets. However, he has impressed with his power, earning 11 knockouts in his 14 wins, and features a nasty hook and overhand. Pereira comes in riding a three-fight win streak and has looked better in every fight. He is an excellent, well-rounded fighter, featuring a nasty jab and one-two, heavy leg kicks, and commendable grappling and wrestling.
DFS Perspective: Both guys have finishing power, but Pereira has fought much higher competition and should win this fight. Fialho has significant power and could find that lucky shot, but he is green and coming in on short notice, so the odds are against him.
My Pick: Pereira
Brandon Moreno (19-5-2) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (20-2-1)
Fight Analysis: Moreno had his way in his title win last time out, displaying crisp striking and dominant control on the mat. He has a beautiful jab, solid one-two, and strong leg kicks. In addition, he features excellent takedowns, strong control, and crafty submissions. Figueiredo is a powerful striker with a good all-around game. He has a slick jab, deadly overhand, and strong kicks to the body. Additionally, he implements quick takedowns and will look for a submission or ground and pound in top control.
DFS Perspective: The third and hopefully final fight between these two should end the same way as the last fight. I am tired of hearing all the excuses for Figueiredo and expect Moreno to repeat the outcome from fight two. Moreno kept Figueiredo uncomfortable and off-balance all fight, and I expect more of the same in this one.
My Pick: Moreno
Francis Ngannou (16-3-0) v. Ciryl Gane (10-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Ngannou is out to defend his belt after winning it last time out and is an incredible striker with unreal power. He stands tall, hits like a truck with a mean jab and nasty hook, and 12 of his 16 wins have come by knockout. Gane has climbed the ladder to his title fight, winning seven in a row since joining the UFC in 2019. He has an excellent all-around game and is one of the most athletic heavyweights the division has seen. He has crisp technical striking with a solid one-two and leg kicks, great takedowns, and has the means to finish the fight by any method.
DFS Perspective: Ngannou has the chance to end any fight at any time with his incredible power. Gane is one of the hardest fighters to hit and is extremely athletic. I love Gane's chances to win the belt here, given how amazing he has looked during his path to this fight. That said, Ngannou only needs one clean shot to end it and has five rounds to find it.
My Pick: Gane
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts
- Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.