This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The middleweight division is going to get a shakeup on Saturday night. Two of the best in the world will battle in Hollywood, Florida in a bout that will have lasting effects on the 185-pound division.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Moves Scoring:
- Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
- Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
- Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
- Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
- Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses:
- 1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
- 2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
- 3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
- 4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
- 5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
- Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS
Scoring Notes:
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- Advances include: moving to half guard, side control, mount or back control.
Now, on to the fights...
Main Event – Middleweight
Lyoto Machida (22-6-0) v. Yoel Romero (9-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Machida ($10,500), Romero ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Machida (-175), Romero (+155)
There's no shame in losing to Luke Rockhold, but I'm worried about Machida. He wasn't competitive in the bout which took place in April and he looked every bit his 37 years of age. His only losses since November 2010 are to Jon Jones, Chris Weidman, Phil Davis (in a fight he clearly won and lost a decision) and Rockhold. It's not going to get any easier against Romero. Romero is 38-years-old, but he's a former Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling. Machida figures to have a slight advantage on the feet due to his extremely unorthodox style, but Romero is going to have a huge edge on the ground. Only two of Machida's 22 career wins are by submission, so Romero doesn't really have to worry about that. The Dragon has bounced back from losses his entire career and he has a massive experience edge. The injury-laden Romero didn't have his first professional fight until December 2009, while Machida made his debut in May 2003. I'm going to take the bigger, stronger Romero, but this fight could easily go either way. Machida may have a slight advantage due to the fact it's a five-round fight, but I think it's a bad matchup for him and Romero rides out a decision. Even if you like Machida to win the fight, Romero's DK salary is surprisingly affordable
THE PICK: Romero
Co-Main Event – Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio (21-2-0) v. Lorenz Larkin (15-4-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Ponzinibbio ($8,600), Larkin ($10,800)
Vegas Odds: Ponzinibbio (+140), Larkin (-180)
A host of visa problems suffered by Brazilian fighters that were originally due to appear on this card have forced Ponzinibbio and Larkin into the co-main event. Ponzinibbio lost his UFC debut to the underrated Ryan LaFlare, but he's won his last two bouts. Larkin really struggled in the middleweight class, but he looked terrific in his last bout -- a first-round TKO win over John Howard in his welterweight debut. Larkin has always had potential, however, and he's fought far better competition. He even has a win over current UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler from back in his Strikeforce days. Larkin has long been considered a prospect with a lot of potential, but he's been plagued by inconsistency. Ponzinibbio has a good record, but he hasn't fought anyone good. Larkin is the far more athletic fighter and he's been in the cage with some of the better fighters in the world. Ponzinibbio may have a slight advantage on the ground, but that's about it. I think he struggles against Larkin.
THE PICK: Larkin
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior (5-1-0) v. Eddie Gordon (8-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Carlos Junior ($11,000), Gordon ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Carlos Junior (-245), Gordon (+175)
This is a matchup of former Ultimate Fighter winners. Carlos Junior defeated Vitor Miranda for his title in the light heavyweight division in May 2014, but then he got smoked by Patrick Cummings in his last bout in December. He will drop down to middleweight for this fight. Gordon, who fights out of the Serra/Longo team on Long Island, destroyed Dhiego Lima in his Ultimate Fighter finale, but he has since lost back-to-back fights to relative unknowns Josh Samman and Chris Dempsey. Carlos Junior, who naturally fights in a higher weight division, is going to be the bigger and stronger fighter. Gordon has looked legitimately terrible since he won his TUF title, causing many to worry about his future in the sport. Carlos Junior's DK salary is so high that even though I think he's going to win, I wouldn't automatically use him.
THE PICK: Carlos Junior
Middleweight
Thiago Santos (10-3-0) v. Steve Bosse (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Santos ($10,700), Bosse ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-190), Bosse (+150)
Bosse, a Canadian who will be making his UFC debut, is best known for being a goon in his professional hockey days. He was due to fight for the company on a couple of other occasions, but both bouts fell through for various reasons. He now works as a full-time fireman. It would appear that he's a striker who just likes to bang with his opponents. In a similar manner, Santos is another guy who does his best work on his feet. He's 2-2 in his first four UFC bouts, but he's gone against far better competition than Bosse has ever faced, such as Urijah Hall and Cezar Ferreira. Santos is also a Muay-Thai black belt and he is going to be the far more technical of the two fighters. A guy with Bosse's power will always have a chance if he connects, but I don't like his odds against the well-trained Santos. Still, Bosse's DK salary is low enough that you can take a shot on him and pray for a knockout.
THE PICK: Santos
Featherweight
Hacran Dias (22-3-1) v. Levan Makashvili (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Dias ($10,700), Makashvili ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Dias (-175), Makashvili (+135)
This is a solid bout. Dias is one of the more underrated fighters in the featherweight division. He only has a 2-2 record in his first four UFC bouts, but those losses came against Ricardo Lamas and Nik Lentz, two of the better fighters in the world. Dias is a good wrestler and has solid submission skills. On the other side of the ticket, Makashvili won his UFC debut in May by split decision over Mark Eddiva. He racked up seven takedowns in that bout and he's a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. With two guys who are formidable on the ground, the difference in this bout could be which fighter is better on the feet. Makashvili has a reasonable DraftKings salary if you're looking to fill out your lineup, but I'm not confident in him winning this matchup.
THE PICK: Dias
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira (11-2-1, 1NC) v. Joe Merritt (6-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira ($11,800), Merritt ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-400), Merritt (+280)
THE PICK: Oliveira
Welterweight
Leandro Silva (17-2-1, 1NC) v. Lewis Gonzalez (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Silva ($10,400), Gonzalez ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-160), Gonzalez (+120)
THE PICK: Gonzalez
Welterweight
Steve Montgomery (8-2-0) v. Tony Sims (9-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Montgomery ($10,500), Sims ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Montgomery (-160), Sims (+120)
THE PICK: Montgomery
Flyweight
Danny Martinez (17-6-0) v. Sirwan Kakai (11-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Martinez ($10,300), Kakai ($9,100)
(No Vegas Odds are currently posted for this fight)
THE PICK: Martinez
