DraftKings MMA: UFC 196 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 196 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The UFC's biggest star will move up TWO weight classes as he attempts to continue his dominance on Saturday in Vegas.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Welterweight

Conor McGregor (19-2-0) v. Nate Diaz (19-10-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McGregor ($11,000), Diaz ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: McGregor (-430), Diaz (+380)

The lead up to this fight is unlike any other in UFC history. In Diaz, McGregor finally has an opponent who is willing to verbally spar with him on a regular basis in both press conferences and interviews. This fight doesn't have the long-term, industry-wide implications of the previously scheduled fight between McGregor and current lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, but this is about as solid and entertaining of a fight as the UFC could come up with on 12 days notice. What this boils down to is the fact that you have a featherweight (McGregor) fighting a lightweight (Diaz) at the 170-pound welterweight limit. In my eyes, this fight is remarkably simple to break down from a technical standpoint. McGregor is huge for the featherweight division, but he is still considerably smaller than Diaz. Nate's best chance to win this fight would be to use his terrific ground game, but I see zero chance that he actually goes that route. It seems like a near certainty that the reason that McGregor accepted this fight at welterweight (other than the paycheck) was due to the fact that he was completely confident that this would be a kickboxing match and little else. Diaz looked far better than anyone expected in his win over Michael Johnson in December, easily winning virtually every striking exchange between the two men and showing a renewed commitment to the sport.  Still, given everything we've seen from McGregor early in his career, is it truly realistic to think that Diaz can beat him in a kickboxing match? I think that while McGregor's wrestling is probably a bit underrated, there's no doubt that we haven't seen him perform against an elite grappler (I'm not counting the Chad Mendes fight because Mendes took that fight on such short notice.) For example, I would pick Khabib Nurmagomedov over McGregor and I was leaning towards taking dos Anjos over him, but even with his size advantage, I can't advocate taking a late replacement Nate Diaz over him. I expect this to be a standup contest with a lot of jawing at each other during the exchanges. Unless Diaz surprises everyone and tries to turn this into a ground battle, I don't see how he wins. He isn't known for his power and the odds of him outpointing McGregor on the feet over 25 minutes are next to none.

THE PICK: McGregor

Co-Main Event – Women's Bantamweight Championship

Holly Holm (C) (10-0-0) v. Miesha Tate (17-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Holm ($10,800), Tate ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Holm (-345), Tate (+285)

A lot is going to be expected of Holm after her destruction of Ronda Rousey in November, but expectations needs to be tempered. I like Holm to win this fight and there is no doubt that she is growing as a Mixed Martial Artist after getting a late start in the sport, but it must be noted that this is a woman who struggled to earn a split decision win over Raquel Pennington a little over a year ago. Holm clearly has dominant kickboxing skills that should allow her to handle any opponent she faces on the feet, but I still don't see a fighter who is a long-term champion. Tate represents a difficult challenge because she is very tough and extremely well rounded. Tate strikes me as far too smart of a fighter to stand in front of Holm and allow herself to be peppered with kicks. Tate has a legitimate ground game and in essence, this fight breaks down for me just like the McGregor v. Diaz fight. If Tate stands in front of Holm and is willing to exchange with her, she almost certainly will have a long (or short, depending on the point of view) night. If she tries to wrestle and gets the fight to the mat, Tate suddenly becomes a real threat. For me, the main difference between Tate and Diaz is the fact that I think it's reasonable to expect Tate to realize this is her best path of victory and try to exploit it. Holm is already the best 135-pound striker in the woman's division. There really isn't another competitor who can come close to matching her in that area. If she is truly improving in the other areas of her game while training alongside legendary coach Greg Jackson, she should be favored over every woman in the division for the next couple years, including Rousey. I like Tate as an underdog DK play because she has been in plenty of big fights before and she rarely gets rattled when inside the octagon. She's a clear underdog, and deservedly so, but this isn't as lopsided of a fight as many of the other title fights that the UFC seems to be promoting these days.
THE PICK: Holm

Light Heavyweight

Gian Villante (14-6-0) v. Ilir Latifi (12-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Villante ($9,200), Latifi ($10,200)
Vegas Odds: Villante (+175), Latifi (-210)

Villante entered the UFC in April 2013 as a heralded prospect with huge potential, but he has been the very definition of inconsistency throughout his time with the company. A former All-American football player and wrestler at Hofstra, Villante is as athletically gifted as any fighter in the UFC's light heavyweight division. He has also exhibited a granite chin. His downfall has been the fact that his cardio is virtually non-existent after the first five minutes of the fight. Although he is a brilliant wrestler, he refuses to try to takedown his opponents on a regular basis. Villante is 4-3 in his UFC career, although that includes just one quality win (Corey Anderson) and multiple poor losses (Tom Lawlor, Fabio Maldonado).  Latifi also debuted in April 2013, losing to Gegard Mousasi, but he has since gone 4-1 in his last five fights and is coming off back-to-back first-round stoppage wins over Hans Stringer and Sean O'Connell. Both of these fighters have immense power. Villante has more of the typical light heavyweight build and while Latifi is five inches shorter, he is built like a tank.  This is an awkward fight to predict. Villante and Latifi are both only a pair of wins away from having meaningful fights in a thin 205-pound division. Since Villante has never tried to wrestle in the past, I assume he doesn't plan on doing it here. His height and reach edge should give him a major advantage if he decides to stand at distance and try to pepper Latifi with kicks. Latifi is the more accomplished ground specialist, although neither man makes his living by racking up submission wins (Latifi has four in his career, Villante has just two). Either or both of these two men could be comfortably ranked as top-10 fighters in the light heavyweight division by this time next year. The fight is a coin toss.  As always, when undecided, take the underdog.
THE PICK: Villante

Light Heavyweight

Corey Anderson (8-1-0) v. Tom Lawlor (10-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Anderson ($10,600), Lawlor ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Anderson (-310), Lawlor (+255)

Anderson has spent his entire UFC career defeating guys that he should beat and the one time he fought a guy with an ounce of natural ability (Villante), he lost. Thankfully for him, he should be able to use his athletic skills to cruise past Lawlor. Anderson is a very good wrestler with a decent amount of power in his hands, but he has really struggled to earn stoppage victories during his time with the company. It's tough to become a star in this sport if you aren't earning impressive highlight reel wins.  Lawlor is only 32 years old, but he fought a lot early on in his career and he has just one fight under his belt in nearly three years. That one bout was against Villante last July, a fight that Lawlor won after landing a huge KO, but it was also a fight that Lawlor was losing before he landed that one huge shot. Prior to the Villante fight, Lawlor had been fighting at middleweight since July 2009. He is going to be giving up a ton of size to Anderson. That would be a problem in itself, but it's even more problematic when you take into account that Anderson is the far better athlete. I think there's a better than even chance that this fight could go the distance and be very boring.  As long as Anderson tries to wrestle and avoids getting tagged with any monster shots, he should be fine. I'm not particularly high on Anderson in regards to him being a future contender in the light heavyweight division, but this is a fight he should and must win. Fighters in their athletic prime who fancy themselves as future top-five fighters can't be losing to fading veterans such as Lawlor. If you're looking to make hay with a big underdog on Saturday, Lawlor seems like a poor bet.
THE PICK: Anderson

Women's Bantamweight

Amanda Nunes (11-4-0) v. Valentina Shevchenko (12-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Nunes ($9,900), Shevchenko ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Nunes (-150), Shevchenko (+130)

This is quite the underrated fight. Nunes has been far more productive during her brief UFC career than anyone could have anticipated. She is 4-1 with the company and she most recently steamrolled Sara McMann in just 2:53 last August. Nunes posesses massive power and has shown a unique ability to put together slick, impactful combinations in a division where many women struggle doing so. Unfortunately for Nunes, her opponent on Saturday is not one of those women. Shevchenko made her UFC debut in December and earned a split decision win over former Strikeforce champion Sarah Kaufman. Shevchenko has a decorated background in striking and owns a professional Muay Thai win over current UFC women's strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. The only loss of Shevchenko's MMA career came against veteran Liz Carmouche way back in September 2010.  I think Nunes should have a slight power advantage, but there's no doubt that Shevchenko will be the more technical striker of the two women. The fight could very well come down to which fighter manages to do something other than strike. Nunes has proven to be a competent, if not decorated, wrestler during her time in the UFC. She would be the one who would seemingly have the most to gain to turn this fight into a grappling match. A fighter with Shevchenko's striking background is nearly certain to land her fair share of shots if you stand in front of her for an extended period of time. Shevchenko looked far better than expected against Kaufman, a fight in which she was a significant underdog, but Nunes has the more proven track record these days. Shevchenko is a value play at her DK salary. She proved in the Kaufman fight that she has the ability to beat a top-five fighter, but I would take Nunes as the outright winner. Keeper in mind, however, that Shevchenko will get fights that impact the title picture if she is able to defeat Nunes.
THE PICK: Nunes

Other Bouts


Welterweight

Brandon Thatch (11-3-0) v. Siyar Bahadurzada (21-6-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Thatch ($10,900), Bahadurzada ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Thatch (-310), Bahadurzada (+255)
THE PICK: Thatch

Welterweight

Erick Silva (18-6-0) v. Nordine Taleb (11-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Silva ($10,300), Taleb ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-230), Taleb (+190)
THE PICK: Silva

Middleweight

Vitor Miranda (12-4-0) v. Marcelo Guimaraes (9-1-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Miranda ($10,700), Guimaraes ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Miranda (-310), Guimaraes (+255)
THE PICK: Miranda

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (20-5-0) v. Chas Skelly (15-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Elkins ($9,300), Skelly ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: Elkins (+130), Skelly (-150)
THE PICK: Skelly

Lightweight

Diego Sanchez (27-8-0) v. Jim Miller (25-7-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Sanchez ($9,400), Miller ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Sanchez (+120), Miller (-140)
THE PICK: Sanchez

Lightweight

Justin Salas (12-6-0) v. Jason Saggo (10-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Salas ($9,000), Saggo ($10,400)
Vegas Odds: Salas (+175), Saggo (-210)
THE PICK: Saggo

Featherweight

Julian Erosa (15-3-0) v. Teruto Ishihara (8-2-2)
DraftKings Salaries: Erosa ($10,500), Ishihara ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Erosa (-200), Ishihara (+170)
THE PICK: Erosa

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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