This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads back to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, July 9. In the main event, top-10 lightweights collide as Rafael dos Anjos takes on Rafael Fiziev.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay on. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1) vs. Nina Nunes (10-7)
Cynthia Calvillo welcomes Nina Nunes to the flyweight division, and I'm taking Calvillo to get the win.
Both Calvillo and Nunes are struggling, as Calvillo is on a three-fight losing streak while Nunes has lost two in a row, but both have fought top-ranked fighters. In this fight, I expect Calvillo's wrestling to be the difference-maker, as we have seen Nunes struggle with wrestlers and grapplers, and Calvillo will likely have a small size advantage.
They both are solid strikers and it will be a competitive fight, but Calvillo will out-volume Nunes and use her wrestling to win the rounds and get a decision win.
UFC Vegas 58 Bet: Cynthia Calvillo (-150)
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Cortney Casey (10-9) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (9-4)
There are a few underdogs on the card I like in Casey, Cody Brundage and Rafael dos Anjos. For the underdog play, however, I'm taking Cortney Casey to get the win over Antonina Shevchenko.
Both Casey and Shevchenko have struggled, and in the UFC, the way to beat Shevchenko is by taking her down and controlling her on the ground. I expect Casey to be able to do that, as Shevchenko has just a 52 percent takedown defense in the UFC. While on the feet, Casey also throws more volume. She averages 4.46 significant strikes per minute while Shevchenko averages 3.89.
The odds just seem off on this, as Casey has more paths to victory. Although she isn't the best wrestler, she does have what it takes to get this fight to the ground to get the win.
UFC Vegas 58 Bet: Cortney Casey (+155)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios (11-2) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (8-2)
For my prop, I'm taking Ricky Turcios to beat Aimeann Zahabi by decision.
Turcios is the TUF 29 bantamweight winner and is not known as a finisher, as including his two TUF fights, he has won by decision in four of his last five wins. Zahabi, meanwhile, has only ever been finished once, as he is pretty durable and has proven he has the cardio to go three rounds.
Turicos' striking will be the difference, as he is hard to hit and he averages an insane 7.00 significant strikes per minute and can also mix in the wrestling. He should be able to just out-volume Zahabi and mix in the wrestling to win a decision.
UFC Vegas 58 Bet: Ricky Turcios by decision (+120)
Weight Class: Bantamweight & Middleweight
Said Nurmagomedov (15-2) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (28-4)
Caio Borralho (11-1) vs. Armen Petrosyan (7-1)
In my parlay, I'm taking Said Nurmagomedov and Caio Borralho to get their hands raised on Saturday night at UFC Vegas 58.
Nurmagomedov has a ton of power and also has solid grappling that he can use to wear out Silva de Andrade. The Brazilian is a tough out for anyone, but the Dagestani fighter will land the more powerful strikes as well as out-voluming Silva de Andrade to get the win.
In the other leg, I'm taking Caio Borralho to beat Armen Petrosyan. Borralho has looked impressive on DWCS and the UFC, as he is a very good striker and grappler. Petrosyan, meanwhile, is a vicious striker, but he does appear to gas out, and Borralho will need to be worried in the first round.
After the first round, Borralho will begin to take over and either get a late stoppage or get the decision win.
UFC Vegas 58 Bet: Nurmagomedov & Barralho parlay (+101)
UFC Vegas 58 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 58 event:
- Cynthia Calvillo (-150)
- Cortney Casey (+155)
- Ricky Turcios by decision (+120)
- Said Nurmagomedov & Caio Borralho parlay (+101)