NASCAR DFS: MyAFibRisk.com 400 Picks

NASCAR DFS: MyAFibRisk.com 400 Picks

This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.

MYAFIBRISK.COM 400

Location: Joliet, Ill.
Course: Chicagoland Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile tri-oval
Laps: 267

Race Preview

The Chase for the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship gets rolling this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway. The track is a relative newcomer to the schedule, but has the envious position of being a Chase circuit. This is the first chance the 16 Chase contenders will have to distinguish themselves from the competition in the Challenger round, and all will be aiming for an early victory to send them through to the next stage of the bracket. Brad Keselowski has two recent wins at the track, and was the one who took the checkered flag last year to earn an early pass in NASCAR's version of the playoffs. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth earned top seeding for this season's battle with four wins each, and all will be gunning for another this week.

Key Stats at Chicagoland Speedway

Races: 14
Winners from pole: 1
Winners from top-5 starters: 1
Winners from top-10 starters: 5
Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
Fastest race: 145.138 mph

Last 10 Chicagoland Winners:

2014 - Brad Keselowski
2013 - Matt Kenseth
2012 - Brad Keselowski
2011 - Tony Stewart
2010 - David Reutimann
2009 - Mark Martin
2008 - Kyle Busch
2007 - Tony Stewart
2006 - Jeff Gordon
2005 - Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Chicagoland isn't one of NASCAR's most storied tracks, but it is next door neighbor to one of the biggest markets in the country. The 1.5-mile tri-oval is similar to a number of circuits on the calendar and demands a well handling car. There are multiple grooves that drivers can choose to run, but engineering the proper balance will play a pivotal role in determining who is fast and who is not. The circuit also lends itself to traffic, so there could be instances where a car is faster on its own or in traffic. As is always the case with traffic, track position will be very important. There have been no fewer than 15 lead changes in the last four races at the circuit, with two drivers starting from outside the top 20 to gain the win.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
(Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Kevin Harvick - $11,100
Brad Keselowski - $10,400
Matt Kenseth - $10,300
Kurt Busch - $10,000

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Jimmie Johnson - $9,200
Jeff Gordon - $8,400
Kyle Larson - $8,400
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $8,300
Jamie McMurray - $8,000

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Clint Bowyer - $7,900
Tony Stewart - $7,700
Aric Almirola - $7,000

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Casey Mears - $6,800
Danica Patrick - $6,700
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,400

WHO I WOULD CHOOSE THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Brad Keselowski - $10,400
Jimmie Johnson - $9,200
Jeff Gordon - $8,400
Clint Bowyer - $7,900
Tony Stewart - $7,700
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,400

Brad Keselowski won two of the last three races at Chicagoland. He also finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races at the track. The best driver rating this week belongs to Johnson, who also has the best average Chicagoland finish among drivers with more than one start there. Jeff Gordon may be questionable to put in the low-risk lineup, but he scored a top-10 at Richmond and is anxious to see out his career on a high note. Bowyer has been fantastic at Chicagoland prior to crashing there last season, and Tony Stewart has three wins at the track before finishing 18th last year. Your final choice here is Stenhouse. He started in the top 5 in both of his visits to the track, and picked up a top-10 here in 2013.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Matt Kenseth - $10,300
Martin Truex Jr. - $8,900
Kyle Larson - $8,400
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $8,300
Austin Dillon - $7,200
Casey Mears - $6,800

The difficulty of winning back-to-back races is the reason Kenseth is in the high-risk lineup this week. His Chicagoland record is one of the better ones, and he has the fourth highest driver rating this week. Truex is searching to regain consistency, but has two top-10s here and is still capable of winning each week. While Larson remains an unproven commodity, his finishes have been getting better and this is the type of track he excels on. Earnhardt has four consecutive top-10 finishes heading into this week's race and is one of the quiet threats in this Chase. A respectable 16th-place run at this track last season means we should expect a top-15 at a minimum from him this year, while Casey Mears may be undervalued given his early results at this oval.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. C.J. Radune plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: cjradune, RaceDayScore: cjradune.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NASCAR Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NASCAR fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
C.J. Radune
Radune covers NASCAR, Formula 1 and soccer for RotoWire. He was named the Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association in 2012 and 2015.
NASCAR Barometer: Joey Logano Dominates to Claim Second All-Star Win
NASCAR Barometer: Joey Logano Dominates to Claim Second All-Star Win
NASCAR DFS: NASCAR All-Star Race
NASCAR DFS: NASCAR All-Star Race
NASCAR DFS Trucks: Wright Brand 250
NASCAR DFS Trucks: Wright Brand 250
NASCAR All-Star Race Preview: Old School All-Star Race
NASCAR All-Star Race Preview: Old School All-Star Race
NASCAR Barometer: Brad Keselowski Snaps Wins Drought with Darlington Victory
NASCAR Barometer: Brad Keselowski Snaps Wins Drought with Darlington Victory
NASCAR DFS: PrizePicks Selections for the Goodyear 400
NASCAR DFS: PrizePicks Selections for the Goodyear 400