South Point 400
Location: Las Vegas, Nev.
Course: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile oval
Laps: 267
NASCAR South Point 400 Preview
The NASCAR Cup Series and its eight final championship playoff contenders head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this week for the South Point 400. This will be the first of three races that will determine which four playoff contenders race for the championship at Phoenix. Last time at Las Vegas, Josh Berry outdueled Daniel Suarez in the final laps to claim his first series victory in just his fifth start with Wood Brothers Racing. His win was the second in a row at the track for Ford while Chevrolet took the three wins prior to that, and Toyota has not visited the Vegas Victory Lane since the introduction of the current generation of car. Denny Hamlin was the last Toyota driver to win there in the fall of 2021, and he will be anxious to rediscover that success this week with a championship finale spot on the line. He enters the race atop the standings, two points ahead of Ryan Blaney but just eight points from the danger zone. With only 28 points separating first through eighth in the championship picture, the next three-race run is destined to be one of the most hotly fought stretches of the season, and it all gets underway this weekend at Las Vegas.
Key Stats at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 35
- Winners from pole: 1
- Winners from top-5 starters: 14
- Winners from top-10 starters: 22
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
- Fastest race: 154.849 mph
Previous 10 Las Vegas Winners
2025 spring - Josh Berry
2024 fall - Joey Logano
2024 spring - Kyle Larson
2023 fall - Kyle Larson
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Joey Logano
2022 spring - Alex Bowman
2021 fall - Denny Hamlin
2021 spring - Kyle Larson
2020 fall - Kurt Busch
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile oval with steep progressive banking and a smooth surface. The progressive banking in the turns, coupled with this particular car, has created close racing and options for drivers to change grooves in the corners. While it is possible to run side by side and pass at the track, starting up front is still an advantage. The furthest back any driver has started and won with the current car was in the spring of 2022 when Alex Bowman started 13th. In the track's 35-race history in the series, the furthest back anyone has come to win was Matt Kenseth in 2004 from the 25th starting spot, but that was a slightly different track configuration with less banking.
While cautions can be frequent, long runs are also prevalent. Tire management is key to having a good race, too. There are multiple lanes to run depending on how aggressive drivers want to be, but preserving grip through a long run is the goal. Fuel saving can also be an effective strategy if the race features more long green-flag periods, but track position is always top of mind when heading to pit road. Some teams may gamble with two-tire stops to move forward if cautions are prevalent. Typically, drivers that qualify up front finish up front, though. Three of the last five Las Vegas races were won by a driver starting on the front row and only one of the last seven was won by someone starting worse than 10th.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the South Point 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Christopher Bell - $11,200
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
Joey Logano - $10,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
William Byron - $10,000
Chase Briscoe - $9,700
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Tyler Reddick - $9,200
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Ross Chastain - $9,000
Chris Buescher - $8,500
Bubba Wallace - $8,200
Alex Bowman - $8,000
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Austin Cindric - $7,200
Josh Berry - $7,100
Ryan Preece - $6,900
Daniel Suarez - $6,700
NASCAR DFS Picks for the South Point 400
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Alex Bowman - $8,000
Austin Cindric - $7,200
Josh Berry - $7,100
Daniel Suarez - $6,700
Kyle Larson (DK $11,500, FD $14,000) has not been his usual winning self since roughly May of this season. That has started to change recently, and now may be the time to get back on the bandwagon. He enters this week's race with three consecutive top-10 finishes and back-to-back top-fives including last week's runner up. He also led more laps in the last five races than he has in all races this season combined since his win at Kansas, and Kansas is the track most similar to Las Vegas. In short, Larson is showing signs of a return to form at the perfect moment for his championship hopes, and him not being a contender for the win this weekend would be a surprise.
Next up is Chase Elliott (DK $9,500, FD $10,500). While Elliott can't boast the superlatives of Larson at this track, Elliott is regaining the early-season consistency that has fueled his run deep into the playoffs. He has 17 top-10 finishes so far this season and four of those came in the last five races. He finished 10th at this track earlier this season and won at Kansas just two races ago. Elliott starts this final round of eliminations below the cutoff line and will be hunting for every stage point along with the race win.
Keeping with the Hendrick Motorsports theme, Alex Bowman (DK $8,000, FD $8,500) could also make a nice selection this week. His Las Vegas record is admirable with a win in 2022 and four top-10s from his last six tries. He finished seventh at this track back in March, and his top finishes take points from his teammates' playoff rivals. Another option in this spot would be Tyler Reddick for those looking for more diversity by adding a Toyota to the lineup. However, Hendrick Motorsports won three of the last five Las Vegas races, and Toyota hasn't won at the track with the current generation of car, a total of a total of seven straight races, which is why this lineup opts for Bowman.
Team Penske's Austin Cindric (DK $7,200, FD $6,800) is worth considering given his speed at the spring race. Cindric qualified third that week, led 47 laps, won the first stage, and finished the race sixth. His career average starting spot at Las Vegas is 7.1, which is a clear indicator of his potential. Like Bowman, Cindric's best strategy this week is to race for the win and take a top finishing position and some points away from his teammates' playoff rivals.
No fantasy player should overlook Josh Berry (DK $7,100, FD $8,000) this week. Yes, sweeping race wins at a track is difficult and probably unlikely for Berry, but his competitiveness at Las Vegas and similar Kansas cannot be denied. He won here in March and finished sixth despite starting 38th at Kansas in the spring race. He is coming off of a good run on the ROVAL last week and has two Xfinity Series wins at Las Vegas, which gives him some momentum to help push further forward this week.
Another driver not to overlook this week is Daniel Suarez (DK $6,700, FD $6,000). He may be exiting Trackhouse Racing at the end of the season, but Las Vegas could give him the chance to go out with a bang. He narrowly lost to Berry in the spring race and finished third in this race last season. He hasn't finished lower than 16th at this track since 2022 either. Suarez needs some positives to help him find a home for next season and Las Vegas is a place he can make some noise.
NASCAR Betting Picks for the South Point 400
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner - Kyle Larson +450, Joey Logano +900
Top-Five Finish - Josh Berry +380
Top-10 Finish - Daniel Suarez +300
Sunday's South Point 400 is likely to be competitive, which makes it tough to pick a favorite to win. There are a number of things to like about Kyle Larson this week, though. After several months of being locked out of Victory Lane, Larson and the No. 5 have turned in three straight top-10s and are knocking on the door for another win. He was runner up a week ago in a strong performance at the ROVAL and this week he could have an advantage. Larson is a three-time Las Vegas winner who has led 376 combined laps in his last four track visits. He won the second stage and finished ninth in the spring here, too. It appears as though Larson is rediscovering his best form at the perfect moment.
Joey Logano is also a convincing option to take for the win. He brings good odds with an underdog outlook, but Logano and No. 22 have excelled in those conditions in the past. Las Vegas has been a good track for the defending champion with four wins from 24 starts. Logano won this race last season and returned this past spring to lead 40 laps. With Ford cars showing strength at both Kansas and Las Vegas throughout the past two seasons, it would be unwise to count Logano out prematurely this week.
Just as it would be unwise to count Logano out, the Ford of Josh Berry should also be on peoples' radars this week. He won at Las Vegas in the spring to earn his playoff spot and was also competitive at Kansas. The Ford contingent has been quick throughout the year on these types of circuits and in the right conditions Josh Berry will make the most of it. He is a two-time Las Vegas winner in the Xfinity Series, and a top-five finish this week in Cup should be within his reach.
Surprisingly, Daniel Suarez is attracting good odds for a top-10 finish. The pessimistic view of this wager is that Suarez is out of this team at the end of the season, and he failed to make the playoffs. Wagerers must remember that, had he outdueled Josh Berry on the final restart at this track in March, the story might be completely different, though. Suarez has two runner-up finishes this season and Las Vegas was one of those. If you add his third-place finish in this race last year to March's second-place finish, you should see why his odds for landing a top-10 finish this week are worth taking.
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