DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday Bundesliga Picks

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday Bundesliga Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

MATCHES (EDT)

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday Bundesliga Cheat Sheet

THE CHALK

Joshua Kimmich, BAY at LEV ($6,300): As the dominant set-piece taker for the second-biggest favorite on the slate, Kimmich is going to be the highest-owned player in cash games and one of the highest in GPPs. The set pieces are obviously great, and while some people may try to convince themselves that Kimmich isn't as good because he plays as a defensive midfielder instead of right-back, the stats simply don't back it up; he's excellent wherever he plays. Bayern Munich lost the reverse fixture 2-1 at home earlier this season, a match that Kimmich put up 18.6 fantasy points in thanks to seven chances created, 10 crosses, two fouls drawn and three interceptions. He's basically a lock for 10.0 fantasy points, and he has clean sheet potential, making him a tremendous value given that he's the 32nd-most expensive player on the slate.

Filip Kostic, SGE v. M05 ($10,000): Kostic is going to be popular in all formats but particularly cash games because he's the highest-floor player in the league by a mile (Kimmich is second). His price is obviously the sticking point, as he's the third-most expensive player on the slate and doesn't play for a huge favorite. But again, his floor is absurdly high even though he doesn't have a monopoly of set pieces. Finally, he's playing against a Mainz side that's allowed the second-most shots, most shots on goal, second-most chances created and fifth-most crosses in the Bundesliga this season.

Timo Werner, RBL v. SCP ($11,300): Werner is the most expensive player on the slate, and it is very difficult to pay up for him and Kostic without punting at least two spots, but that won't stop plenty of people from doing it. RB Leipzig are -835 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook against Paderborn, who sit last in the table, six points behind 17th-placed Werder Bremen. Unsurprisingly, Werner has the best anytime goal scorer odds on the slate at -315 (he's +200 not to score), and he comes in with four goals in his last three games, including a hat trick away to Mainz on May 24. The one thing that should depress his ownership a bit is that teammate Patrik Schick is only $8,400, has -137 odds to find the back of the net and has scored in each of the past two games, taking nine shots over that span. Additionally, Christopher Nkunku ($9,800) continues to take a majority of RB Leipzig's set pieces, and while he's not a high-volume crosser (he's reached 10 crosses only once in 27 Bundesliga appearances this season), he leads the league in chances created (three ahead of Kostic). Pairing Nkunku and Schick will be popular in cash games, especially for those who think Leipzig romp, but there will always be some hesitation because Werner's floor is better than Schick's and his upside is arguably the highest on the slate.

FORWARDS

Thomas Muller, BAY at LEV ($9,200): With RB Leipzig such big favorites and Kostic having a near-perfect matchup for what he does, Bayern Munich are likely to go a bit overlooked despite being -220 favorites against Bayer Leverkusen. The highest-scoring fantasy team in the league, Bayern lead the league in shots, shots on goal and chances created while trailing only Eintracht Frankfurt in crosses. The natural inclination is to target Robert Lewandowski ($10,600), who leads the league in goals and is second in total fantasy points (trailing Werner), but pivoting to Muller seems like a solid GPP pivot given he'll be lower owned. Only six players in the Bundesliga have scored more fantasy points than Muller, whose 18 assists lead the league and whose 71 chances created are the second most. He also has seven goals, so it's not like he's only a creator. It's unclear why he's not also forward eligible, but Serge Gnabry ($8,900, midfielder) is also a good play for access to the Bayern Munich goals, and the combination of the two are likely to be low owned, which sounds pretty enticing given the game odds. If you're looking for a cheaper path, Kingsley Coman ($7,100) is always capable of getting on the score-sheet, though he's also a near lock to get subbed early. From a cash perspective, Robert Skov ($8,600) and Erik Thommy ($7,700) make sense in a vacuum, but given the situations with Bayern and Leipzig, you're probably better off staying away because their floors probably aren't higher and their ceilings surely aren't.

Valon Berisha, F95 v. TSG ($4,300): Despite being a total bust in his last start, Berisha could still draw ownership Saturday because he fills a forward spot and presumably has a floor above zero. He mostly plays as a midfielder, and while he doesn't cross a ton, he usually takes enough shots, creates enough chances and wins enough tackles to justify his price. He's likely to be popular in lineups with both Werner and Kostic because of his affordability, though it wouldn't be too surprising if we just saw people pay all the way down for the cheapest forward and hope they can score enough points with the big boys to work out. I'd generally avoid guys from Paderborn due to the matchup, but otherwise guys like Taiwo Awoniyi ($4,300), Jean-Philippe Mateta ($4,700), Ihlas Bebou ($4,400), Steven Skrzybski ($5,200) and Munas Dabbur ($5,500) will get some looks.

MIDFIELDERS

Angelino, RBL v. SCP ($7,800): Angelino's playing time has been a bit sporadic lately, but he makes for a very solid play if he starts against a Paderborn side that's tied with Mainz for allowing the fifth-most crosses and are solo third in chances created allowed. A share of set pieces helps Angelino's floor, and only three players on the slate average more crosses per 90 among those who have played at least 100 league minutes. While he doesn't have the same floor as Nkunku, he provides a decent salary break, making the Leipzig 2v2 essentially Werner/Angelino ($19,100 total salary) v. Schick/Nkunku ($18,200 total) . We don't have to stop there when it comes to Leipzig since they're such overwhelming favorites, and paying down for Tyler Adams ($3,700) certainly makes sense whether he starts at right-back, right wing-back or central midfield. Given how much of the ball Leipzig are likely to have, Adams should get enough touches to make that salary workable, and he's certainly capable of moving up in the attack in the right situations. You could also throw Dani Olmo ($6,600) into the conversation, though the best thing about him is likely that he'll go overlooked, similar to Kevin Kampl ($6,200) if he's also in. Both players are fine, but they don't have high floors and don't score many goals despite Olmo hitting the back of the net just last weekend (and Kampl has assists in each of his last two). And, of course, Marcel Sabitzer ($8,000) continues to be over-priced and over-looked by most.

Sebastian Rode, SGE v. M05 ($4,200): There is a group of midfielders in Rode's price range that pretty much all offer the same thing: slight access to set pieces and plenty of defensive stats, though Rode has the benefit of facing a Mainz side that's allowed the fourth-most corners and fifth-most crosses in the league this season. Additionally, Mainz have allowed the second-most shots and most shots on goal, which means you can make a reasonable case for teammate, and fellow defensive midfielder, Dominik Kohr ($3,700), who is averaging 2.01 shots, 2.17 tackles won and 2.17 interceptions per 90 minutes this season, all averages above Rode, who has an 0.88 to 0.72 cross per 90 advantage. It's amazing what set pieces will make you do, right? The other players in this range are Sebastian Rudy ($4,600) and Pierre Kunde ($4,200), though the latter is further away from getting corners in the likely starting lineups. Each of these guys are fine, and you could probably add in Mijat Gacinovic ($3,600) too even though he has no sets, but you'd probably not be looking at them if the Leipzig guys weren't so attractive. Oh, and I can't finish without mentioning Dennis Geiger ($3,000), who could be on most of Hoffenheim's set pieces if he starts (he's not a regular starter and isn't really expected to start, but with potential rotation he could find his way in).

DEFENDERS

Daniel Brosinski, M05 at SGE ($5,600): Brosinski generally takes all of Mainz's set pieces when he starts, and with a number of issues along the back line (injuries and suspensions), he could get a start. One thing to watch out for is that he might be forced to start at right-back instead of his regular left-back role, but that shouldn't take him off corners. He started regularly at right-back earlier this season and showed he can put in plenty of crosses and create plenty of chances, and he'll surely be popular if he's in, likely in combination with Kimmich (which is why the cheap midfielders could be the keys to the slate). The potential high ownership for Kimmich and Brosinski should push the ownership levels of the other higher-priced defenders down, which could make Almamy Toure ($5,200) or Timothy Chandler ($5,100) solid GPP plays. And, of course, Marcel Halstenberg ($5,500) could start at left-back after serving a one-game suspension, but his price still seems to be including his potential for set pieces, and he hasn't taken a corner in any of the past 11 games in the Bundesliga or Champions League. And going back to Brosinski for a second, Moussa Niakhate ($2,700) could start at full-back if Brosinski isn't in, and that price will surely get people looking.

David Alaba, BAY at LEV ($4,100): There has been some talk that regular starting left-back Alphonso Davies ($7,000, midfielder/forward) could be rested, which could move Alaba out wide for one game. Alaba used to be Bayern's regular left-back but has predominantly played centrally this season, but he's a very good crosser when he plays on the wing. His salary is really attractive if he's in that role, but it's vital to check the lineup and expected formations before the match because he's not really worth that salary, at least from a floor perspective, if he's playing in the middle. Otherwise, we could get other rotational cheap pieces in, as we've seen on nearly every classic slate since the Bundesliga returned, and with the small difference in floors between those guys and the players in the $4K range, getting the extra salary is a huge benefit.

GOALKEEPER

Lukas Hradecky, LEV v. BAY ($3,900): Hradecky is the cheapest home goalkeeper, and while he has a really tough matchup against Bayern Munich, he could be highly owned because many people will be rostering RB Leipzig attackers. Leopold Zingerle ($3,600) provides some slight salary relief, but he's also more likely to get lit up. Given the high potential for goals, spending $5,900 on Peter Gulacsi seems like a lot, even if he has an 83.2 percent chance of getting the five-point win bonus and 46.1 percent chance for the clean sheet points, according to the odds.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Andrew M. Laird plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kingmorland, DraftKings: andrewmlaird, Yahoo: Lairdinho.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is an eight-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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