This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both men's semifinals at the BNP Paribas Open will be played Saturday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. An American underdog will be looking to reverse some poor head-to-head history against his favored foe, while a rivalry that has the potential to wind up among the best in the game's history will add another chapter Saturday. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting has officially gone live.
Unlike Grand Slams, all men's matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, form thus far at Indian Wells and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Indian Wells Odds: Medvedev vs. Tiafoe
Daniil Medvedev (-370) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+285)
Medvedev's on an 18-match winning streak, and he's 4-0 in his career against Tiafoe, all on outdoor hard courts like the ones at Indian Wells. So, what hope does "Big Foe" have against his favored foe? For one, Medvedev's body will be barking at the Russian after he fell in each of his last two matches, injuring his ankle in the Round of 16 against Alexander Zverev and thumb in the quarterfinals against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Zverev pushed Medevev to 7-5 in the third and Ilya Ivashka took a set off the former US Open champion earlier in the tournament, so Medvedev hasn't exactly looked invincible here.
Tiafoe's also a better player than the versions Medvedev has faced previously. Their last meeting came in 2021, and the 25-year-old American subsequently enjoyed a breakout year in 2022, reaching the US Open semifinals. Tiafoe's currently ranked 16th, two spots back of the career high he obtained last month. Medvedev's ranked No. 6 and the former world No. 1 has been playing more like a top-three performer over the past couple months, so he's rightfully viewed as the clear favorite here. That being said, Tiafoe's ability to force the issue and take time away by coming to the net while also being able to serve his way out of trouble should allow him to mount a serious challenge here. Tiafoe has yet to drop a set at this tournament and is coming off a comprehensive 6-4, 6-4 take-down of 2021 Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie. He rides the adrenaline of crowd support as well as anyone on the ATP Tour, making an American venue the ideal spot for Tiafoe to try to pull off one of the biggest wins of his career.
Indian Wells Prediction: Tiafoe def. Medvedev 7-6, 3-6, 7-6
Indian Wells Odds: Alcaraz vs. Sinner
Carlos Alcaraz (-175) vs. Jannik Sinner (+145)
These are two of the game's three brightest stars under 22, along with Holger Rune (Ben Shelton could get there too with a larger body of work). The 19-year-old Alcaraz and 21-year-old Sinner have already faced off four times on the ATP Tour, splitting those four meetings. The most recent and momentous of those matchups came in the quarterfinals of this past US Open. Alcaraz saved match point before prevailing in five sets, and he went on to win the title, securing his first Grand Slam and becoming the youngest world No. 1 in ATP history. Novak Djokovic has taken the top ranking back, but the Spaniard can reclaim it with a title at this tournament. It's only fitting that Alcaraz has to go through Sinner again to return to that pinnacle.
Alcaraz had been nursing a hamstring injury coming into this tournament, but his on-court play has emphatically answered any lingering questions about his health, as Alcaraz has shown no fear chasing down nearly unthinkable balls in the corners, not to mention returning them with interest. If anything, Alcaraz looks even better than he did at the US Open, and he has cruised into the semis without dropping a set. Sinner has also been playing some of his finest tennis at this tournament, following up three straight-sets win with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 victory over defending champion Taylor Fritz. The slower hard courts here seem to actually help Sinner, as his immense power has allowed him to blast the ball past opponents anyway while even the likes of Fritz and Stan Wawrinka failed to consistently generate enough power to do so in return against the 11th-seeded Italian. The problem for Sinner, though, is that Alcaraz can nearly match his power, and it's advantage Alcaraz when it comes to speed and finesse after that, as well as shot selection and confidence.
Indian Wells Prediction: Alcaraz def. Sinner 3-6, 6-4, 6-3