Decoding the Key to Success at French Open 2023
Without Rafael Nadal present at the 2023 edition of Roland Garros, the draw is wide open for a large number of players to make deep runs that wouldn't otherwise be possible.
Nadal, a 14-time winner of the tournament, has made a habit of neutralizing his opponent's serve in Paris with a deep return stance and then taking control of the rallies from there. For instance, in his 2022 French Open final win over Casper Ruud, the Spaniard claimed a whopping 55% of points on his opponent's serve, which led to eight breaks of serve in a straight-set win.
In 2020, Nadal walloped Novak Djokovic in the final, and similarly claimed 51% of points on his opponent's serve en route to seven breaks of serve on 18 break point chances.
The 2021 winner in Paris, Djokovic, rallied from two sets down to defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas and he claimed 40% of receiving points in the win, while the Greek won just 30% of points on the Serbian's serve.
Who in this year's field can make the biggest dent on their opponent's serve? Let's take a look.
No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev has the highest return rating across the last year on tour, which factors points won on an opponent's first serve, second serve, the percentage of return games won and break points converted. The Russian hasn't been known as a clay-court specialist, but he's coming off a big title run in Rome so his confidence will be high. The 27-year-old does have one previous quarterfinal effort in Paris (2021) and he's in the favorable half of the draw opposite Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Across that same span, Alcaraz leads the tour in percentage of return games won at 33%. As evidenced by his No. 1 ranking, the 20-year-old Spaniard has been the best player on tour in 2023 with a record of 30-3. He also leads the tour in percentage of points won on an opponent's first serve at 35.4%. If he's able to get into neutral ball rallies as usual with his effective return game, Alcaraz has the goods to claim his second major title.
To no surprise, Djokovic also ranks highly in return rating at No. 5 in the world. He leads the tour in points captured on an opponent's second serve at 55.8%, just nudging out Medvedev, who's at 55.7%. Following his Australian Open title, the 36-year-old's season has been subpar but he's virtually a lock to go deep as he hasn't lost before the quarterfinals at the French Open since 2009.
Djokovic is also the tour leader in "under pressure" rating, which measures break points converted, break points saved, tiebreaks won and final sets won. Despite his older age, it's tough to see many players in this field outlasting him in a grueling five-set contest.
Another player who boasts a strong return game is No. 8 seed Jannik Sinner, ranking No. 3 in overall return rating. The 21-year-old Italian is only behind Alcaraz and Medvedev in percentage of return games won and he's also No. 4 in percentage of second serve return points won. Like Medvedev, Sinner is placed in the bottom half of the draw, meaning he has a good chance to make his first slam final. Sinner has reached the fourth round or better in each of his three appearances at Roland Garros.
Of course, holding serve is also of utmost importance. Of the players mentioned so far, Djokovic has by far the best serve rating at No. 3 on tour. That factors in first serve percentage, percentage of first serve points won, percentage of second serve points won, percentage of service games won, average aces per match and average double faults per match. The Serbian wins 89.8% of his service games, which ranks second on tour behind Nick Kyrgios. On clay, the serve becomes a bit less important as the court slows down and players take deep return stances, but Djokovic clearly has his competitors beat when it comes to reliability on serve.
All the best sports betting sites and best sports betting apps will allow you to wager on these favorable returners of serve, but make sure to check out the most lucrative sports betting promos before placing those wagers.
2023 Men's French Open Predictions
Alcaraz d. Djokovic
Medvedev d. Rune
Alcaraz d. Medvedev
