2025 U.S. Open: Top-10 Seed on Upset Alert in First Round Tuesday
First-round play wraps up Tuesday at the U.S. Open from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+175) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti's ranked No. 10, but that impressive placement is due primarily to his success on surfaces other than hard court. He's 19-5 on clay and grass compared to just 7-7 on hard in 2025, and Musetti's a career sub-.500 hard-court player at 63-72. The 6-foot-8 Mpetshi Perricard has a substantial edge in power, especially on serve, and the 37th-ranked Frenchman just missed being seeded here. Both of their previous meetings went Musetti's way on grass, but the change in surface to hard court could be enough to push this one in the Frenchman's favor.
Marin Cilic (+175) vs. Alexander Bublik
Cilic turned back the clock at Wimbledon, reaching the fourth round there for his first foray into the second week of a Grand Slam since the 2022 U.S. Open. While the 36-year-old Croatian is well past his prime, he's healthy again after a couple of seasons that were derailed by injuries, and Cilic can still conjure up impressive attacking tennis reminiscent of the kind that helped him secure this title in 2014. The enigmatic Bublik has had some moments of brilliance on clay and grass this year, but he hasn't played a hard-court match since March and is just 3-9 on the surface this year.
Honorable Mention
Alexandre Muller (+140) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-380) vs. Anastasija Sevastova
Alexandrova should control play in this matchup with her superior power, and the 12th-ranked Russian is in good form, having just made a hard-court final in Monterrey. She's 7-1 in U.S. Open first-round matches in her career, including wins in each of the last six. The 35-year-old Sevastova has a 221-spot deficit in the rankings at No. 233, and she hasn't won a Grand Slam match since 2021.
Lorenzo Sonego (-300) vs. Tristan Schoolkate
Only one man has beaten Sonego in Grand Slams this year, as the 46th-ranked Italian is 7-0 against opponents other than Ben Shelton, who took Sonego out in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, first round of the French Open and Round of 16 at Wimbledon. Sonego will be happy to see that he can't face Shelton until the final here, and while Sonego's chances of getting that far are minuscule, he should at least get past the 96th-ranked Schoolkate, who is only 6-10 in ATP Tour-level matches in his career at age 24.
Honorable Mention
Nuno Borges (-275) vs. Brandon Holt
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (-135) vs. Donna Vekic
These are two players whose arrows are pointing in opposite directions despite being separated by less than 10 spots in the rankings, with the 22-year-old Bouzas Maneiro rapidly ascending while the 29-year-old Vekic is fading fast. Bouzas Maneiro narrowly missed being seeded here, but the 40th-ranked Spaniard has consistently performed like a seed in recent big tournaments, reaching the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, quarterfinals of the Canadian Open and Round of 16 in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the 49th-ranked Vekic last won back-to-back matches in April, going 4-9 since then to drop her season record to 11-19.
Gael Monfils (-115) vs. Roman Safiullin
Monfils has battled some injuries, but if he's healthy enough to take the court here, the nearly 39-year-old Frenchman should be viewed as the clear favorite. Monfils has maintained a top-50 ranking and has a solid 14-7 hard-court record in 2025. The 94th-ranked Safiullin is just 6-16 in 2025, including 5-10 on hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Hailey Baptiste (+125) vs. Katerina Siniakova
