2025 U.S. Open Title, No. 1 Ranking at Stake in Sinner-Alcaraz Final
The U.S. Open men's singles final will be played Sunday at 2 pm EST on Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have separated themselves from the field, becoming the first pair of players in the Open Era to meet in three consecutive Grand Slam finals in the same year. This will be the rubber match after they split the first two, and the stakes are even higher here with the No. 1 ranking up for grabs.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Sunday's men's championship match.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Sinner vs. Alcaraz
Jannik Sinner (-135) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (+110)
They say variety is the spice of life, but the repeated Sinner-Alcaraz matchups in big finals recently have been anything but bland. This will be the third straight Grand Slam final contested between these two opponents, after Alcaraz saved three match points in an epic five-set French Open final and Sinner countered with a four-set win at Wimbledon. Alcaraz also has Masters 1000 final wins over Sinner this year at Rome and Cincinnati (via retirement), which have pushed the Spaniard's overall head-to-head advantage to 9-5, including 6-2 on hard courts. This meeting will have an extra layer of importance because the No. 1 ranking will also be on the line in addition to Alcaraz's bid for Grand Slam title No. 6 and Sinner's bid for his fifth major title.
Sinner was my pre-tournament pick by just a hair, but Alcaraz has done enough in this tournament to tip the scales slightly in the other direction. This has been the most focused start-to-finish Grand Slam effort of the 22-year-old Spaniard's career to this point, as Alcaraz hasn't dropped a set en route to the final and just took care of business in a straight-sets semifinal win over Novak Djokovic. Sinner was pushed to four sets in the third round by Denis Shapovalov and again in the semifinals by Felix Auger-Aliassime, and the top-seeded Italian didn't face a top-20 seed here other than compatriot Lorenzo Musetti, whose No. 10 seeding oversells his hard-court ability. A tougher draw would have been unlikely to deter Sinner, though, as he has just one non-Alcaraz loss in 2025 and is only the fourth man in the Open Era to reach the finals of all four Grand Slams in the same calendar year. Sinner has generally been a slightly better hard-court performer than Alcaraz the past two years, except when they go head-to-head, but Alcaraz has displayed superior form in this tournament. With the margins between these two so thin, Alcaraz's slight edge in form could be enough to push him across the finish line, but remember not to draw any conclusions too early in this match, as the winner of the first set has gone on to lose in five of the last six meetings that lasted at least a set.
U.S. Open Men's Final Prediction: Alcaraz def. Sinner 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3
