Bernie on the Scene: Major League Baseball is at War

The game of baseball that we know and love is at war, and this might be the most important article I have written for RotoWire. The war is between the owners and the players. A Civil War, if you will. And we as fans and fantasy baseball managers are helpless.

The information I provide here comes from sources I trust. All of it, some of it, or none of it may happen. But, the war between baseball owners and baseball players can't be denied.

The owners, led by MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, continue to claim the game lost billions of dollars from the pandemic driven 2020 season played without fans in the stands. 

Ownership is bound and determined not to begin a new season unless and until there are fans in the stands. That, of course, will take vast COVID-19 vaccine immunizations, and there is no definitive date when enough fans will qualify as immunized. The problem is intensified with the slow roll out of the vaccine.

The MLB Players Association is bound and determined to receive payment for a full, 162-game schedule, even if fewer games are played.

In essence, players don't care how many games are played, they want full payment, as negotiated in the basic agreement between the parties. That agreement is said to expire at the end of this new calendar year.

Owners want players to share in the ramifications of games without fans. Owners want players to share in the financial pain.

Players say MLB could have played more games in 2020, as proven by a 60-games schedule being completed. They say accommodations can be made in a full season of play for teams that test positive, just as accommodations were made in the 2020 season. Players are pointing at a successfully completed season as proof that more games can and should be played.

Player agent Scott Boras is a loud voice in "pay us our full salaries" rants.

What's Next?

Ownership has responded to their deep concern about the length of the season, the uncertainty of the spring training and regular-season schedule and their huge financial losses by freezing out hundreds of MLB free-agent players. That's why we haven't seen a prolific signing of quality players to this date in the new calendar year.

Owners will not commit to long-term, expensive contracts without more certainty of fans in the stands and greater revenue streams. Without concessions to a shortened season on the part of the players, owners will continue their signing freeze. And all owners seem to be buying in to this strategy.

For its part, the Players Association has indicated privately that it will not strike at the end of the current basic agreement if a deal has not been reached.

For its part, ownership has hinted that it will lock out the players if no agreement is reached by the end of December.

Labor Relations and Politics

Both ownership and players are well aware that an incoming Democratic administration under Joe Biden may be skewed in favor of labor. That was the case when the last labor dispute in baseball went to the Labor Relations Board under President Bill Clinton.

The Labor Relations Board and other government entities dealing with labor issues could impact any potential resolution of an unfair labor claim made by either side. If the owners lock out the players, what's to keep players from seeking relief from the federal government? Especially a government that may favor their position? 

Even if Republican board members remain on labor relations boards and committees, newly appointed Democrats could have the majority in each situation. Knowing that, the Players Association won't be quick to fold their tent on financial/contract and labor relations issues.

And what happens if every federal exemption owners now receive is somehow challenged by a couple of aggressive Congressmen and Congresswomen? What happens if their antitrust exemption is threatened? Revoking that exemption could burn down the house. This is no longer the past when the exemption was bullet proof.

And in my opinion, that's the tactic politicians should have taken when MLB started closing down minor league franchises and entire leagues. But they didn't. Get enough politicians riled up about a lockout or any threat to the National Pastime (again) and the exemption discussions could surface. 

Impact of this Current Stalemate

While we are seeing little to no movement in free-agent contracts, we may also see pressure put upon owners who appear to be softer toward players. For example, new Mets owner Steve Cohen may feel the wrath of owners for giving James McCann a four-year deal. That type of contract will be taboo for most owners who feel financial stress. They will put pressure on Cohen and others seeking to color outside the lines to get in tow. Baseball owners are very good at applying pressure to their own and making ownership life a bit miserable.

I firmly believe DJ LeMahieu, George Springer and Trevor Bauer know where they want to sign. They know the value of the contracts they seek. But it won't happen under a cloud of uncertainty. They may all realize it will be a waiting game, but eventually they'll get paid. But when?

A Solution

MLB and the Players Association will have no choice but to extend their current basic agreement, perhaps another year. Players will want concessions for the future in terms of more money. The owners will want a shortened 2021 season to begin only when there are fans in the stands. There are ways for the owners to assure players more money "in the future." They could give bonuses, share revenue and more.

The fact several hundred free-agents are still unsigned won't sway the players to an early concession to play fewer games for any amount of money less than a full season's pay. It just isn't going to happen.

Players are well aware that every ownership group saw its own franchise value increase when Steve Cohen paid $2.4B for the Mets, making owning a baseball franchise an even more prized possession. While the owners may cry that they are losing money now, their payday will come the moment they sell that treasured asset. After all, there are only 30 ownerships spots in the exclusive club.

Players are well aware that Mookie Betts was given a 12-year $365M contract. Well aware.

Players are well aware that Rockies owner Dick Mofort is building a huge condo, office building and multi-use facility across from Coors Field in Denver.

And on and on. Players know the value of franchises and the franchise owners. And those facts and figures dictate the posture of the players.

But players are not allowed to see the owners books. Players ask for proof of loss, but owners refuse to open the books. That's important. Very important. A labor board could force that issue.

There is no baseball owner to be found in line at a food bank. 

There could be some baseball players living on the brink of their past incomes who will be in huge trouble without a new contract.

The Players Association may also make noise about bringing minor league players into their Association, a move they should have made long ago. That will be additional player leverage on owners. Owners are content with the horrific pay scale they now enjoy with their minor league players. Even if there are fewer minor leaguers now, owners are content to suppress those salaries. Unionizing minor leaguers could be a "poison pill" ownership doesn't want to swallow.

Conclusions

Unless and until players are inoculated against COVID-19 we won't see the normal type of spring training as we saw prior to mid-March 2019. Maybe, and the thought has crossed my mind, MLB will work some type of shenanigans with drug companies and the government to get their players immunized on the basis of baseball being critical to the welfare of the country.

Unless and until enough fans (I don't know the magic number) have proven to have been immunized, baseball will not have fans in the stands. That will again cost massive losses of revenue.

Unless and until the basic agreement between players and ownership is extended with guarantees for future payment in exchange for current belt tightening, we will continue to see MLB at an impasse.

Final Thought

There is no MLB without players.

Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff and read my work at Forbes.com — like this one.

And Happy New Year to each of you.