MLB Betting: Monday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Monday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous day 2-2 -0.65

Overall 33-11 +14.74

2-2 with a small loss yesterday as I really did not look deeper into Caleb Smith against the Brewers which cost me as he threw a gem. Very short slate today with just three games on the board, so we will have to dig for some different types of plays and value.

Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox 5:10 PM ET

Zach Thompson vs. Nick Pivetta

The Marlins are in the middle of a 1-8 record in their last nine games and 0-9 in the last nine at Fenway.  They just lost three out of four to the lowly Pirates.  Even though the Red Sox have not played as well at home (16-13) they still outclass the Marlins here. 

Pablo Lopez has been pushed back a day in favor for Zach Thompson. I originally liked the under 9.5 in this game, so that is off the board, but I will stick with the Sox run line with adjusted odds. 

BET – Red Sox -1.5 runs (-110) for 1 RW buck

BET – Red Sox -0.5 run 1st 5 innings (-135) for 1 RW buck 

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels 9:38 PM ET

Jackson Kowar vs. Dylan Bundy

The Angels are a -140 home favorite with a total of 9 (opened 8.5) which projects to 4.9-4.1 for the Angels.  In a best-case scenario for Bundy, he would go six innings tonight and that would put him at 2.7 earned runs allowed. But he has allowed at least four earned runs or more in his last four starts while giving up seven home runs. The home stat line for Bundy is gross with a 7.94 ERA, .284 BAA and the Royals are hitting .287 as a team in their last ten games.

I have no clue who wins this game as we have a rookie debut starting pitcher for the Royals, but I do know that Bundy has not pitched well in the last month.

On the flip side, I will take a stab at two monster left-handed hitters on the Angels to hit a home run tonight. I think one of them will do it against the right-handed Kowar. Ohtani has six home runs in 70 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers at home, while Walsh has five in 75 plate appearances.

BET - Dylan Bundy over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115) for 1 RW buck

BETShohei Ohtani over 0.5 home runs (+240) for 0.5 RW buck

BET Jared Walsh over 0.5 home runs (+375) for 0.5 RW buck

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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