The Z Files: Difficult Pitching Projections, Part One

The Z Files: Difficult Pitching Projections, Part One

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

I was recently tasked with ranking my Top 90 starting pitchers. No big deal, right? I do projections, so all I need to do is run the numbers and pick out the first 90. Easy peasy.

I wish.

I won't bore you with the nuances I added to my projection process, at least not yet. Let's just say I struggled mightily with some guys, from the top of the list to the back end. Here they are, with my rank. At least for now.

3. Walker Buehler

Full disclosure, I was directed to lean more to points scoring, which can often differ from roto depending on the format. Most systems favor innings and strikeouts, making it easier to rank Buehler here, with only Gerrit Cole (1st) and Corbin Burnes (2nd) ahead of him. The problem is I have Buehler a few spots lower in 5x5. While it may seem like a couple of spots is no big deal, in this area of the rankings, a difference of just one spot is equivalent to $2 or $3 difference in earnings. As such, while the difference between being the No. 3 and No. 6 pitcher is only three places, saying it's $5-$7 puts it in better perspective.

The reason this is important is because the market will place Buehler in the top three in 5x5 scoring. While I don't aim to have my ranks mimic the market, I identify outliers to determine if I'm missing something. The catch with Buehler is he's

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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