This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 7
2025 Betting Record: 6-9 (-4.21 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 9-5 (+2.86 units)
It's a full baseball day Wednesday, but my attention is focused on a pair of interleague evening matchups where AL East teams serve as the hosts.
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MLB Picks for Padres at Yankees
- Padres Over 1.5 runs - F5 (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Both teams to score 2+ runs - F5 (+195 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
On the surface, this game shapes up as one the Yankees go into with a clear advantage, thanks to the pitching matchup between Dylan Cease and Max Fried. Cease isn't exactly resembling the pitcher who's won 13 or more games in three prior seasons, as he heads into Wednesday with a 1-2 record, 5.61 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 4.0 BB/9, along with a career-high 11.1 percent barrel rate allowed.
Cease has also had a boatload of trouble with current Yankees bats in the past, surrendering a collective .314 average and .872 OPS across 41 career encounters. Additionally, about the only inning in the first half of games where Cease hasn't run into trouble is the second (0.00 ERA, .130 BAA), as the first (7.71 ERA, .323 BAA), third (9.00 ERA, .344 BAA), fourth (five extra-base hits out of seven knocks allowed, .873 OPS surrendered) and fifth (9.82 ERA, .375 BAA) frames have all been very difficult for him.
However, Fried isn't exactly a sure a proposition in this matchup, either. The left-hander does have an outstanding 6-0 record, 1.01 ERA and .094 WHIP, giving up two earned runs or less in each of his seven starts and posting an 0.4 HR/9 as well. Yet, some of Fried's advanced metrics and his history against Padres bats hint some regression could come on Wednesday.
Fried's 6.3 percent barrel rate allowed equals his career-high figure, and his 3.28 xERA, while still very much an impressive number, is more than three times his base figure. Current San Diego hitters also have a collective .304 average and .780 OPS against Fried in 87 career plate appearances against him, with Fernando Tatis (.571 average) and Luis Arraez (.600 average) two of his biggest tormentors.
The Yankees average an AL-high 3.7 runs per first five innings per home game, while the Padres' 2.35 runs per first five innings per road contest rank them in the top half of MLB as well. We're looking for San Diego to just get to two runs in the first five frames to help cash our first two bets, and then I'm throwing in the Goldschmidt prop thanks to his .600 average in six plate appearances against Cease and his .351 average and .879 OPS on the season.
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MLB Picks for Phillies vs. Rays
- Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Cristopher Sanchez 6+ Strikeouts (-142 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
This has the potential to turn into an entertaining pitcher's duel tonight in Tampa Bay when the Rays face a talented left-hander in Cristopher Sanchez while the Phillies come up against Shane Baz's 96 mph-plus fastball.
Southpaws have mostly been Tampa Bay's Kryptonite so far this season, as the Rays have a .200 average, .275 wOBA and -8.2 wRAA in that split at home. Sanchez is far from an ideal pitcher to try to break that pattern against, considering his 3-1 record, 3.45 ERA and career-high 28.9% strikeout rate.
The talented southpaw also has a .288 xwOBA against and a 3.06 xERA, and he's yielding a career-low 3.7% barrel rate, which lessens the odds of impactful contact being made at his expense. Sanchez has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of six starts and hasn't allowed a home run on the road in 8.1 innings, generating an impressive 0.6 HR/9 overall in away starts since the start of the 2023 season (106 innings).
Baz has a noteworthy resume in his own right, as he too carries a 3-1 record into Wednesday night's clash while also boasting a solid 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 26.1% strikeout rate. A look underneath the surface reveals he's been even more effective, as his Statcast metrics include a .207 xBA, .289 xwOBA and 3.08 xERA.
Baz did have a very rough go of it against the Royals last time out (5.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 3 BB), but he's otherwise tossed a pair of shutouts of six and seven innings and allowed three total earned runs in two of his other trips to the mound. Current Phillies bats only have a collective .176/.263/.353 slash line in 19 career plate appearances against him as well, and Philadelphia is averaging a meager 1.5 runs per first five innings per road game.
Given the body of work of both pitchers and the fact Tampa Bay also ranks within the bottom 10 in MLB with 2.35 runs per first five per home game, I like the Under on the first-five-inning total. Then, current Rays bats have just a .280 on-base percentage and .290 slugging percentage against Sanchez in 25 career plate appearances and he's already recorded at least six strikeouts in four of six starts, putting his K prop in play.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Padres Over 1.5 runs - F5 (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Both Padres and Yankees to score 2+ runs - F5 (+195 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Phillies-Rays Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Cristopher Sanchez 6+ Strikeouts (-142 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
