This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Big 12 Tournament Best Bets
It took 12 innings for Tennessee to handle business against Texas, but they got the job done. That very well may be enough of a push for the Vols to get that regional in Knoxville next week. We're into the final weekend before the Regionals start, so let's make it count.
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TCU vs Kansas Odds
TCU -135
Kansas +105
Total 11.5
Two of the best teams in the Big 12 this year will lay it all on the line for a chance to play in Saturday's Conference Finals down at Globe Life Field in Arlington. Aside from this being a good matchup, it also carries a lot of weight. Both teams are on the hosting bubble, and in all reality, the loser could be eliminated from that consideration. With 39 combined regular season conference wins, KU and TCU go to war for likely the last time in 2025.
I got news for you basketball fans. Kansas is transitioning into a baseball school. In one of my preseason shows, I liked them as a dark horse in the conference after showing the building blocks they laid in 2024. While I expected a good season from them, I must say I didn't think they would be 20+ wins good.
After a late comeback against red-hot Oklahoma State on Thursday, the Jayhawks welcome another challenger standing in their way of the finals in TCU. Their most consistent arm, Cooper Moore, will get the start. His 3.48 ERA 73 K/16 BB ratio in 77.2 IP and .248 OBA are all strong marks, but Moore has really stepped it up as of late. Throwing back to back eight inning gems against BYU and West Virginia have elevated the confidence surrounding him. Allowing just four earned and punching out 18 in his last 16 innings is giving those sicko mode vibes we see certain players get in crunch time.
He'll contend against a Frogs offense that's been heating up lately. I still have my reservations though. Sawyer Strosnider, the no doubt Big 12 Freshman of the Year, is the tone setter for this lineup. His .361 avg/1.092 OPS/10 HR not only set that tone, but it's putting everybody on notice for him being a high draft pick next year. Noah Franco is another draft stud to watch in a couple years. The two-way freshman has pumped at the plate this year (.333 avg/.998 OPS/11 HR). Chase Brunson has also delivered (.322 avg/.972 OPS/12 HR). There are some other contributors, but those are the guys that have been carrying the load.
Because this game is in a giant-sized ball park in Arlington, the ball won't be flying like usual. You really have to earn it to get it out there. Moore just has to keep the ball down and free passes down.
TCU threw their stud ace on Thursday in Tommy LaPour, so KU avoids him. Instead, it's projected to be the original Friday guy to start the year in Caedmon Parker. Parker's had some struggles this year (5.63 ERA, 33 K/19 BB in 48 IP), and he's been brutal as of late coming off a 0.1 IP, 7 ER against Utah. The start before that was 1.1 IP, 4 ER. This Rock Chalk offense is a lot of pop (100 HR).
The DUDE for this team is Brady Ballinger (.368 avg/1.214 OPS/16 HR) with Jackson Hauge providing some good Robin to BB's Batman (19 HR). There's not much speed (only 24 bags), but the hit tool is pretty strong (.292 avg). The advantage for this offense against Parker is to jump on him early and often.
Kansas got swept by TCU earlier in the year, I think it's time for them to return the favor. Give me Kansas at plus money with a pitching advantage.
Pick: Kansas ML +105 (DK)
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