Collette Calls: Soler Wind

According to the big brains at Northwestern University, the solar wind is, "a stream of energized, charged particles, primarily electrons and protons, flowing outward from the Sun, through the solar system at speeds as high as 900 km/s at a temperature of 1 million degrees Celsius." That sentence aptly describes what was the 2019 season for Jorge Soler as he sent a stream of energized baseballs outward from home plate at high and hot speeds toward and over the fence with regularity in 2019. That is no longer the case as the last 100 games for him since the start of the 2020 season have looked nothing like that magic we saw from him in 2019. 

The rapid decline in his production could not come at a worse time given Soler is a free agent after this season. He recently turned 29 and is a notoriously poor defender, so his next contract hinges upon his offensive abilities as he will likely remain in the American League as a primary DH. I wanted to focus on him for this article in a proactive manner for the buy-low questions that will likely come should Kansas City trade him before the deadline. The Royals are two games below .500 as play begins June 10th and Soler has contributed little toward that success. By WAR, Adalberto Mondesi has contributed more in the seven games he has made the field in between his two injuries than Soler has contributed all season. To dump an entire container of salt in the wound, Soler is the least valuable player on the roster to date by WAR. 

There is zero chance Kansas City will tender a qualifying offer to Soler, should that mechanism even exist once the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is eventually ironed out this winter. The likelihood the team trades him to get something of value in the coming weeks is high so he does not leave them empty-handed. We are all familiar with how a change of scenery sometimes has immediate dividends for a player — just ask Willy Adames, who has been a completely different player in 2021 since his trade from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee:

Soler has not complained about his inability to hit at home as Adames did in recent years with Tropicana Field, but Adames has quickly adapted to his new circumstances after looking mostly lost statistically for quite some time during the regular season, particularly at home. Soler is hitting .179/.271/.337 with a 30 percent strikeout rate in 2021 and .201/.295/.383 with a 32 percent strikeout rate since the beginning of the 2020 season.  2020 had the pandemic schedule plus two  stints on the injured list for Soler related to an oblique injury but 2021 has had neither.  Why am I even bothering to use column space up on a guy with those numbers? 

The red ink is mesmerizing because he can still smack a baseball. His 2021 exit velocity is the highest of his career, his max exit velo is the second-highest of his career, and he has the highest hard-hit rate of his career this season. The problem has been those events have decreased in frequency with his increasing strikeout rate. Soler has never been mistaken for a contact hitter, but when he was good, the strikeout rate was 26-27 percent and not the 32 percent range he has lived in since the close of the 2019 season. So, how did Soler get here and where could he go from here?

At the highest level, Soler simply should have better numbers:

Even the Expected Home Runs table at BaseballSavant shows us that Soler's home run total would double if his home park was any one of Houston, Boston, Chicago (A) or Philadelphia. Ultimately, expected stats are not predictive and serve to remind us what could have happened in the past more than what could be coming in the near future. It is clear that Soler should be doing better, but to date, mostly has not. Where has it all gone wrong?

In 2019, 31 of Soler's 48 home runs came off the fastball and he mashed heaters with a .445 weighted on base average against fastballs (xwOBA of .480!). The story is much different this season:

The other indicators around the fastball offer little insight to the drop in production against fastballs other to remind us that 2019 was truly special:

One thing that does stand out is an elevated launch angle this year as he is getting under more fastballs, and that plays out in his overall Batted Ball Profile. StatCast categorizes batted balls six ways: Weak, Topped, Under, Flare/Burner, Solid and Barrel. Soler has a career-worst 30 percent Under% this season. Perhaps this is all a matter of getting his timing back  because there is nothing in his plate discipline metrics point to any one thing being far out of alignment. 

Perhaps Soler too could become someone who would benefit from a change of scenery given the expectations on him after the monster 48-homer season a year ago. He has this Khris Davis-like feel to him now where the monster production fell off a cliff and never came back for Davis. Soler is too talented and still young enough to recover from things, as he showed recently mashing this Jesus Luzardo offering deep into the bleachers in Oakland:

If I am in a league where I can acquire Soler, I am definitely interested in kicking the tires now in hopes that he is moved in July or he gets hot again. Jonathan Schoop, a player with a somewhat similar profile, looked lost for most of the season and yet has hit .400/.444/1.000 with five homers and 11 RBIs in June. We cannot just ignore the 2019 numbers from Soler and write them off to the baseball of that season because he still makes very quality contact even if the results are not showing up just yet.