Top MLB Betting Picks for September 17: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-3 ( -1.09 units)
Season 134-141-2 (-11.14 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Wednesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines.
Road Favorites - Yankees -165 at Twins, Marlins -160 at Rockies, Cubs -150 at Pirates
Home Favorites - Brewers -190 vs Angels, Red Sox -170 vs Athletics
Totals - Marlins/Rockies 10.5, Brewers/Angels 7.5, Mets/Padres 7.5
Line Movement - Guardians -16, Athletics -15
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San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Best Bets and Predictions
I was on the wrong side of this matchup Tuesday backing the Padres, and the Mets easily won 8-3. But, I am not buying the Mets in any fashion, and I think they will end up missing the playoffs.
Mets LHP David Peterson has not been in good form over his last seven starts with a 7.13 ERA. Padres RHP Nick Pivetta has been solid all season, with a nearly identical ERA in his last seven versus season long (2.73 ERA). Pivetta has benefited from Petco Park supressing flyballs, and you need to be careful taking him on the road. But, Citi Field is a strong pitchers' park, which helps Pivetta in this spot.
The Mets are just 2-8 in the previous 10 contests, and 8-12 in the last 20 outings. This team has been on a downward trend for several months and we got the Padres at a good price on the road here.
Best Bet: Padres 
ML for 1 unit (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets and Predictions
This Blue Jays team has been a machine since June, and they just do not go into any prolonged slumps. They are 7-3 in the last 10 games, and13-7 in the past 20 outings, while the Rays are just 2-8 in their last 10 showings.
The Rays have very little motivation, while the Jays are gunning for the first seed in the American League. RHP Kevin Gausman has been on fire across his past seven starts, posting a stellar 2.02 ERA.
I think we get the Jays at a great price considering where these teams are, both currently, and over the course of the season.
Best Bet: Blue Jays 
ML for 1 unit (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Best Bets and Predictions
Royals LHP Cole Ragans is coming back from injury for his first start since June 5th, and I would expect he will have a short leash. We can take advantage of this because I think this line is inflated significantly towards the Royals based on Ragans' name value.
The Mariners have won 10 in a row, although RHP Bryce Miller has struggled on the road much like most of the Seattle pitchers. I am a fan of riding streaks, though, and 10 games is a lot. Chances are it is due for a loss, but the key here is Ragans probably not going very long into this game.
The Royals were flirting with a potential AL Wild Card spot, but that has faded, leaving them very little motivation. The Mariners are down in first place in the AL West, and home-field is a huge edge for them come playoff time.
Best Bet: Mariners 
ML for 1 unit (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Wednesday's MLB Best Bets
- Padres ML for 1 unit (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Blue Jays ML for 1 unit (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Mariners ML for 1 unit (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
