It's the start of college baseball season. It is the start of spring training. We are just about at the start of March Madness…and we're also smack dab in the middle of tax season. As someone who now lives in a state that has a state tax and also has to factor in moving expenses, a home office, self-employment income, and more, I dread tax season. It isn't the amount of tax I have to pay each year as much as figuring out the complicated tax codes. There's a reason why I pay someone to do my returns, but I also try to educate myself so the two of us can have a good conversation through the process of trying to ease my tax pain. It is also why I spend a lot of time looking into Average Draft Position compared to end of season values for players. How does this relate to taxes? I'm glad you asked!Fantasy players tend to have unstable memories when it comes to players at draft time before March. They'll use selective memory to ignore the bad previous season and keep drafting that player as if he'll bounce right back to where he was before the bad season. Conversely, they'll take a small sample size of six-to-eight weeks at the end of the season and will extrapolate that over a full season as they reach for a player. Those are what you call tax-free players and heavily-taxed players. Last week, we looked at the
It's the start of college baseball season. It is the start of spring training. We are just about at the start of March Madness…and we're also smack dab in the middle of tax season. As someone who now lives in a state that has a state tax and also has to factor in moving expenses, a home office, self-employment income, and more, I dread tax season. It isn't the amount of tax I have to pay each year as much as figuring out the complicated tax codes. There's a reason why I pay someone to do my returns, but I also try to educate myself so the two of us can have a good conversation through the process of trying to ease my tax pain. It is also why I spend a lot of time looking into Average Draft Position compared to end of season values for players. How does this relate to taxes? I'm glad you asked!Fantasy players tend to have unstable memories when it comes to players at draft time before March. They'll use selective memory to ignore the bad previous season and keep drafting that player as if he'll bounce right back to where he was before the bad season. Conversely, they'll take a small sample size of six-to-eight weeks at the end of the season and will extrapolate that over a full season as they reach for a player. Those are what you call tax-free players and heavily-taxed players. Last week, we looked at the overvalued and undervalued players at each position. This week, let's look at the players that are coming tax-free as we near 100 drafts of ADP data versus those that are coming at a heavy tax based off last year's performance.Last season, 16 players finished with at least $30 of value in 15-team standard mixed leagues. Most of those players are being drafted as if they will repeat, with a few exceptions. The uncertainty around Victor Martinez and his knee has moved his ADP down to 38, and that is likely to continue until we get closer to Opening Day. Last season, only Mike Trout was a more valuable hitter to own than V-Mart. Johnny Cueto was the second-best fantasy producer for pitching last season, but he also had the fourth-highest difference between his actual ERA (2.25) and his FIP (3.30). There's that, and the fact he's coming off a huge season where he worked 243.2 innings. There is no tax being paid in this group, but there is quite a hit in value to Nelson Cruz. A season after he produced $33 of value, he's now a sixth-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues with an ADP of 62 as he moves from cozy Camden Yards to a more spacious Safeco Field.The players that earned $20-29 last season show quite a bit of volatility in their current ADP's. Anthony Rizzo had a strong season and earned $28 last year and has parlayed that into being a first-round draft pick in many drafts already. He has gone as high as the ninth overall pick in NFBC drafts. Buster Posey is clearly the best catcher on fantasy baseball draft boards, and there's a tax to pay for that ranking as well. He has an ADP of 21 and has gone as high as 10th overall in drafts. Lastly, Edwin Encarnacion, a guy that I've loved like a son for many many many years, has an even higher tax rate on him. He missed time in the middle of the summer and hit just eight second-half home runs, but he is a rock solid first-round pick in nearly every draft and has gone as high as eighth overall. There's no child tax credit here if you want this 30 home run lock. Conversely, there are quite a few tax-free players in this group as people doubt certain players can repeat their successful 2014 campaigns. J.D. Martinez finished in the top 40 of overall production last season, but currently owns an ADP of 115, even after hitting .292/.342/.478 over the second half of the season. Recently-sprung Jayson Werth was a slot behind Martinez in final 2014 value, but had an ADP of 154. At least with Werth, there's a reason for the discount in that he had shoulder surgery in early January and is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. Melky Cabrera rebounded nicely in Toronto last season after his disastrous 2013, and will be hitting near the top of a potent Chicago White Sox lineup in a very nice park. While he finished 48th in overall value last season, he has an ADP of 167 as he lives in a tax shelter. Justin Morneau is still playing in Coors Field, and he surprised many with a top-50 finish last season. Despite the good numbers, there are plenty of doubters as his ADP sits at 175. Denard Span, someone with speed who will be setting the table for the likes of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman, has an ADP of 174. Ben Revere, who has many of the same traits but has a worse supporting cast, is being taken 54 spots ahead of Span. That's quite a tax for players that were rather identical in 2014 with very different upsides in 2015.
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA Span 5 94 37 31 .302 Revere 2 71 28 49 .310
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA Loney 9 59 69 4 .290 Mauer 4 60 55 3 .277
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA Martin 7 68 40 31 .274 Davis 8 64 51 36 .282
ADP K% BB% HR/9 ERA WHIP 143 27% 6% 0.5 2.55 0.99 211 23% 4% 0.9 3.04 1.07
ADP K% BB% HR/9 ERA WHIP 111 26% 8% 0.5 2.69 1.14 183 25% 8% 0.7 3.63 1.29 397 24% 8% 0.9 3.78 1.40
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA 102 12 52 42 20 .249 267 9 55 54 6 .289
